Painful laydown

[TheRegulat0r]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (800)
SB (755)
BB (825)
UTG (890)
UTG+1 (800)
UTG+2 (785)
MP1 (800)
MP2 (785)
MP3 (790)
Hero (770)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t15, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises 80</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (t252.50) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets 75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises all-in </font>, Hero folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: t327.50

I doubt MP2 would make that push with A9, tt, or jj which are the only logical made hands I can beat. I have a decent edge on a flush draw, which is also a possibility.

The hand I fear is a set, or maybe a strange play with AA or KK (but I highly doubt it). With a bet into him on the flop, and a pf-raiser behind (me), he might be confident he'll get called.

Is this a weak laydown? I just wasn't willing to push in with this hand this early in the tournament.

[bigredlemon]

I'm puzzled by this play. The only hand that makes sense is 88-KK with no hearts or else a low flush draw.

I would have probably called given that even if the flush hits, you still might make a higher flush if they have a low flush draw.

[Jman28]

This seems like a weak laydown.

Very important question: What buyin is this hand at?

[skoal2k4]

You could be facing a set... but you don't know that... If it's a low limit game (I'd say $5-$30 range?) you might even be looking at Ax of hearts. I don't see anybody limping with AA or KK early in a tourney. TT or JJ I can see. I think the fold was a bit weak. You should have called the all in. If they had the set, so be it. More than likely, I think you're looking at either TT, JJ, or Ax of hearts. Just my thoughts

Robbie

[TheRegulat0r]

Yeah, thinking about this hand today I agree with your assessments. I think he had Ax of hearts. This was a partypoker 20+2 sng.

[schwza]

Ax hearts would be a reasonable hand for him to have here, and if you had any indication he was good that's what i'd guess he had (or maybe some combination flush + pair/straight draw). however, you see a lot of people making plays like this with hands like A6 or T9. it's really not smart at all, but it happens.

i would call this bet. i'm sure at higher levels calling would be idiotic, but at the 20 i think it's a call.

[rybones]

For my money this is a definate lay down!!! Especially if you can play. lets just say he has A,9 hearts, by my count he has 13 outs (8 hearts, 2 nines, and 3 aces) and 28 cards left. Roughly half the cards left in the deck kill you. you are in a race at best and it is early in the tourney. You are in even worse shape if he has 7,8 hearts. That is a hand I love to call a raise with early in a tourney because I know if this flop hits I am a big favorite to win a big stack from the raiser who likely has an over pair. Good fold!! I might even fold A,A here?

Alas, just my thoughts

Ryan

[Unparagoned]

I can't say what I would do at higher buy-ins (I don't play them), but I would have fallen all over myself in the process of pushing the call button here. The flop is nine high with two hearts and someone has moved in. I have seen TT and JJ here alot. The other hands I see flipped over fairly often in this situation are something along the lines of A9, K9, T9, etc. The other possibility is that the all-in raiser is suited with big cards Ah Kh/Qh, that sort of thing. I would pretty much discount the set because I don't see a set pushing here, that hand doesn't want to scare off the overpairs/top pairs that might play with him, though trips may well raise and make sure the flush draw has improper odds. I also think the big pairs, AA and KK, play the hand similar to the way trips might, thus I don't think they push either (though I might well be more scared of a player pushing with those two hands here). I haven't done any math, but it is my guess that you end up winning often enough to make calling the right choice.

[adanthar]

Autocall.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


Is this a weak laydown? I just wasn't willing to push in with this hand this early in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your plan for how to play Queens post flop, then you really should fold them preflop. The whole value in big pairs lies in doubling through all the yahoos overplaying their mediocre hands.

If all you want to do is raise preflop, and then win an uncontested pot post-flop but fold to any heat... what do you need queens for? Just auto-raise from LP with any two if there is 1 limper or less and play the same way.

Here you played QQ like it was AK, and it's not.

Irieguy

[esbesb]

If this buy-in is $50 or less, I make the call easily. I may even make the call on a $100 buy in.

People are crazy this early on. I think the chances that he has A9, K9, Q9, J9 or T9 are much higher than the chances that he has a set or KK or AA.

We know he's not playing the hand logically. That much is a given. He can protect a set against a flush by making a pot-sized (or even smaller bet). A crazy overbet might make some strange sense if he caught trips with overcards on the board and figures you are also crazy and will call with top pair. But most people are too excited by trips to want to bet it all.

I think 90% of the time you are good here.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
lets just say he has A,9 hearts,

[/ QUOTE ]

How many 9h are there in this deck?

[ QUOTE ]
and 28 cards left.

[/ QUOTE ]

You gotta include the cards the other people had face down. They mighta had some of those outs, no?

[Iconoclastic]

"Some people act weak when they're strong, and strong when they're weak. Of course that may not be his style."

I suspect that your options are all close to neutral EV, possibly against a low made hand + flush draw- aka a race. Also maybe a set or two pair.

If you think you can outplay the table fold. If not then put your chips at risk.

[microbet]

Not really a reply to you, but to the idea that it is possibly a laydown at the higher levels.

Do better players get dealt better cards? Are they more likely to make a huge bet when they hit trips than a bad player is? I know in a game where everyone is tricky, everyone is tricky. That certainly doesn't mean they always have the nuts.

Seems like time to fold QQ here is when you are in Las Vegas on a holiday weekend and a guy with a WSOP hat agonizes like Solomon asked him to divide his child by 2 and then pushes his chips in like his hand might get bitten by the Wood Beast in Flash Gordon.

[rybones]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
lets just say he has A,9 hearts,



How many 9h are there in this deck?

Quote:
and 28 cards left.



You gotta include the cards the other people had face down. They mighta had some of those outs, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

As for the how many 9s question, well whatever. As for the face down cards issue: no you don't include those because you don't know. I did include the Qh that he was holding however. Alas, there are 8 hearts out there, 2 nines (i think i said this before but somehow you think my math is fuzzy -- are you george bush), and 3 aces. that is 13 outs. and yes there are 28 cards left that means ROUHGLY half the cards left to come could help me. Moreover, I assume that the original poster sees himself as fairly good. that means that risking nearly everything on a race is not necessarily a good move. Additionally, my analysis doesn't even mention the fact that the other guy might have trips. the betting certainly makes that look possible as well.

Anyway these are just my thoughts. I don't mean to negate what you say. sure it is likly he is ahead in the hand at this point. Given the texture of the game I can see why some might say call. My real issue with your responce is the way you throw out my analysis as though it is way off base without really proving it wrong through any numerical/logical analysis.

again, just my thoughts

Ryan

[microbet]

When you are trying to figure out how likely he is to say hit a flush, you divide by 45, not 28. His two cards are assumed hearts, your cards and the flop you know. There are 45 cards for which the suit is unknown. So he would have 13 outs out of 45 cards. Well, really 11 outs because it is impossible for him to have the 9h.

[rybones]

see, this is where I messed up. Thanks!

Ryan

[microbet]

np

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
You are in even worse shape if he has 7,8 hearts. That is a hand I love to call a raise with early in a tourney because I know if this flop hits I am a big favorite to win a big stack from the raiser who likely has an over pair. Good fold!! I might even fold A,A here?


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, on this particular flop with a 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, you would only be a 56% favorite against an overpair -- and that's assuming your opponent doesn't have a heart. If your opponent has a heart you would be a 51% favorite.