Blackjack with an endless shoe -- countable?

[Shoe]

Ok, so I've noticed some casinos are switching to the "endless shoe" for blackjack. My first reaction, like everyone else's, was this is a bunch of bs~!

However, upon further review, I think it might be possible to count on these machines. Please bear with me, and correct me if I have made any wrong assumptions.

Although you won't be able to get your count as accurate as in standard games, wouldn't it still be possible to start counting when you sat down, and every so often just reset your count to back to 0? If you count 3 decks or so, and their is an imbalance of high or low cards, would the remaing 2 decks (approximately), correct the imbalance?

Now, I'm not exactly sure how the cards get shuffled in these things. For example, when the dealer puts the cards into the endless shoe, does it just shuffle those cards into the back of the shoe (maybe mixed in with the last deck or so), or does it shuffle them all the way up towards the front of the shoe? If they are just shuffled into the end of the shoe, the imbalance of high and low cards could go in a repeatable cycle for several times through.

Anyone think this would be possible? Occasionally you would need to reset your count to get a fresh start, but I would think that occasionally you would find a nice imabalance that you could still take advantage of.

[playersare]

I think you're talking about CSM's which stand for Continuous Shuffle Machines. the "Continuous" part is the most important, meaning that most likely a majority of the cards are in constant cycle. so it's definitely conceivable that a card that was just dealt and put back in the machine could come out again within another hand or two if that's the path it took that particular time around.

the majority of threads I've seen on blackjack-specific message boards conclude that no counting system will beat these machines. however, the public doesn't like them either and so casinos have to constantly sneak them into their pit games and hope that gamblers actually patrionize them and don't complain, and if they do complain, they disappear for a while. as a whole, the public is winning the battle so far.

[Shoe]

Ok, thanks for the info, from what you said they definitely would not be countable then. Hopefully the public wins this battle.

[The Armchair]

They had one of these going at some of the tables when I was in Puerto Rico. I'm pretty sure that the only saving grace was that it could not hold six decks -- I'd say it was between two and four, closer to 4, but I cannot imagine there being six decks in there.

Assuming 4, one very low run could give you a favorable count. It'd have to be a natural -12 or better though (as you only burn about half a deck, assuming six players). Even then... ick.

[MicroBob]

Exactly....they COULD be kind of countable but wouldn't be very profitable.

I dealt on one of these things before.
The machine was pretty much the standard one to my knowledge.
It had 4 decks....but when you put the cards into the thing it takes a couple moments before they get swallowed up into the machine.
It DOES rotate the 'clumps' of cards so that a card that you just saw could come out 2 hands later.
But it is not as likely that you will be able to see that card on the VERY next card....particularly if it is at the TOP of the pack because the dealer will already be bringing out the cards for the next hand before the last cards get eaten up by the machine...thus they are completely unavailable.

Basically, you would need to reset your count every hand. So if you are at a full-table with one of these and the hand is NOTHING but low cards then go ahead and slide out that bigger bet because a large-clump of low cards will still be waiting to slide into the machine as the dealer is bringing out the cards for the next hand.

I don't think it is 'beatable' per-se....but you could certainly lower the EV a little bit if you were forced to play on one of these things.
Also...specific strategy deviation (like 16 v. 10, insurance, etc) can be employed on a full-table as well based on what cards you have seen come out.
Just remember that the CSM is PROBABLY 4-decks.
I'm not sure if there are 6-deck CSM's out there or not...I just know that the one I dealt on was 4-decks and it is the same kind of CSM I have seen elsewhere so I'm just going off the assumption that other places run them similarly.


One final-thought....sometimes the dealer will accidentally leave the cards in the discard rack on his right and forget to put them back into the machine. If they do this for a couple of hands then you can really start to get a more accurate count.

Obviously full-shoe is still better though....because even in the best scenarios you just aren't going to do much better than 1/4 penetration (1 deck out of 4) on one of these CSM's.

[CORed]

Even with the dealer leaving cards in the discard rack for a hand or two, you're getting really bad penetration. Most advice I've seen says you need 3 decks out of 4 dealt in a 4 deck game to make it worth playing. Under tha best of circumstances, you're lucky to get 1 deck. You might reduce the house edge a little, but there's no way you're going to beat these things. The best thing you can do is not play, and spread some superstitious BS about how bad they are for the players.