What are the worst flops for AK?

[Unarmed]

$5 through $20 SNG

Scenario: You have AKo in EP and raise 3xBB, get called by the button and no one else. Give me some flops you're NOT going to lead on?

HU on the flop I think a lead bet after having raised is almost always +EV, but I'd like some advice on which types of flops I should be check folding.

I'm thinking paired low card boards are tough, as you're either up against a better hand or two overs that probably wont let go when led into.

Thanks.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
HU on the flop I think a lead bet after having raised is almost always +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the opposite of the truth. If I notice that a player plays AK this way, he will frequently have my company on the flop... and he will find that his play is rarely +EV.

But the reason why this play is -EV is not because you will be playing against somebody who will control you... it is because you will be getting called by fish with wide ranges and they will accidentally outplay you.

Bad players will assume that your preflop raise is either a big ace or a pair. Post flop they will put you on a small pair if an ace comes, and AK if the board comes rags. This will allow them to call most of your flop bets and make some ridiculouosly ill-advised value bet or bluff later on. The problem is that you can't call them, so you'll fold.

If you ever run into a good player and you play like this, you will get smoked even worse because they won't let you even see the turn.

Irieguy

[Unarmed]

Irie, say my UTG raising hands are AK/AA/KK/QQ, (which they are) and against one caller I lead every flop regardless of its texture and which one of these hands I am actually holding. (which I do)

How can you control me in this case? Unless you hit a bigger hand than me on the flop I'm going to be ahead of you 9/8 of the time. Doesn't this make a flop raise by you a bad move? (I assume this is what you meant when you said a good player won't even let me see the turn)

As always, thanks for the help.

Only partly related to this post but man, it sucks when you start to think you're good at poker due to your ROI and then realize you're just a tight ABC player with overaggressive tendencies.

[etgryphon]

I used to have this same problem. I tend to check AK now if I miss the flop and depending on the opponent will go with a Check-Raise if I think the guy is an aggressive bluffer. Its too easy of a hole to exploit. I was leaking too many chips. I hate playing overcards for too much money, it just not worth it.

-Gryph

[wjmooner]

9TJ. I check-fold a scary flop like this usually. Paired boards are great, it increases the chance your hand is best, less cards to hit your opponents hand.

WJ

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Irie, say my UTG raising hands are AK/AA/KK/QQ, (which they are) and against one caller I lead every flop regardless of its texture and which one of these hands I am actually holding. (which I do)

How can you control me in this case? Unless you hit a bigger hand than me on the flop I'm going to be ahead of you 9/8 of the time. Doesn't this make a flop raise by you a bad move? (I assume this is what you meant when you said a good player won't even let me see the turn)

As always, thanks for the help.



[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I wont tell you exactly why I would play any two against you or how I would do it, but here's what you want to think about:

1. How many ways are there to hold AK, and how many ways are there to hold AA,KK, and QQ?

2. What are the implied odds of making a hand against a player that plays as you describe?

3. How much do the implied odds improve if I know that everytime you hold AK you will fold to a raise on a flop that misses?

Irieguy

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]


1. How many ways are there to hold AK, and how many ways are there to hold AA,KK, and QQ?


[/ QUOTE ]
16 and 18, thats where the 9/8 in my original post came from.

[ QUOTE ]

2. What are the implied odds of making a hand against a player that plays as you describe?


[/ QUOTE ]

On any non-scary flop, your implied odds are limited only by the smaller of our two stacks. I'm actually semi-ok with this given the stacks I play at, but not laying down losing hads is clearly one of my biggest weaknesses.

[ QUOTE ]

3. How much do the implied odds improve if I know that everytime you hold AK you will fold to a raise on a flop that misses?


[/ QUOTE ]

A great deal obviously, but I'm still not sure how your flop raise can be +EV when I'm more likely (18/16) to be holding a made hand, unless you're raising some amount less than the pot.

I can clearly see why you'd call me with a wide range of hands PF given great implied odds when you hit, but I still can't figure out how a flop raise is +EV in most cases given the UTG raising standards I laid out. Change my range of hands to include AQ, AJ, etc, etc and of course, the raise is great. But against a person who is both extremely tight and aggressive, I don't get it /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I mean if you need to bluff $200 into a $200 pot to pick it up, and I will fold half the time and put you all-in half the time, is this not a neutral EV situation? If this is the case, (assuming you need to bet $200 to get me out of a $200 pot) isn't the situation we're discussing clearly -EV for your raise given I am >50% likely to be holding a made hand?

Sorry if I'm turning this into amateur hour...

[willie24]

why would you ever check that board? you have a gutshot and 2 overcards.

[willie24]

flop I would not lead out on: AQQ
of course i would either call down the whole way, check-raise at some point or lead out on the turn though.

i can't think of a board i would check-fold on. can you think of a single board where you should assume you are behind? you are more likely to be up against AQ or AJ than QQ or JJ. if you are up against a low pp you will be able to bet them out of any flop a significant amount of the time anyway. the bet is automatic. the real hand starts after the flop-lead.

i am intrigued by irieguy's bold statement that he can crush anyone who autoleads the flop, and I would like to see him go into more detail, but mostly for my own amusement. it just doesn't add up.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you ever check that board? you have a gutshot and 2 overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do your opponents have on a JT9 board? How often will they fold to a bet? How many outs do your gutshot and 2 overs add up to, on average?

Hands I can check AK on (HU or 3 way):
1)AQQ, AJJ, ATT, similar
2)QJ or JT anything especially if 2 tone or less, monotone flops I have no piece of, ultracoordinated boards like T98
3)A82r, A74r, AK2r

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
but I'm still not sure how your flop raise can be +EV when I'm more likely (18/16) to be holding a made hand, unless you're raising some amount less than the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there are more options than just that, but you are on to something with your comment about raising a small amount. It's too big a challenge to disect post-flop play in a point-counterpoint discussion like this.

Perhaps it's best if we just say that my opinion is that you are making a big mistake with AK. I also feel confident that players who have betting patterns like this are easy to outplay, but the way in which they can be outplayed cannot be explained through a magic post-flop EV formula. Post flop play requires judgement, experience, and a large repertoire of tactical options. Contrast the implications of that statement to your previous statement "I only raise from UTG with AA,KK,QQ,and AK and then I always bet the flop."

I guess my suggestion is that your betting patterns are too predictable. Any predictable betting pattern can exploited, no matter how strong your hand is.

Irieguy

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
the bet is automatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought, the purpose of the post was: given I'm charging into pretty much every flop with AK HU, what flops should I slow down on.

I was promptly b*tch slapped by Irie (in a nice way) who is exactly 1,000,000 times better at HE than you or I am.

Anyway, I'm interested to see how this thread turns out as it looks like its going to result in me completely altering the way I typically play.

I can definintely think of one case where a bet is stupid: Villain is a complete LAG, will call with any piece of the board, and isn't paying attention so there's no sense in betting your AK to get your AA paid off down the line.

Oh wait, I just described the typical $10 player /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
HU on the flop I think a lead bet after having raised is almost always +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the opposite of the truth. If I notice that a player plays AK this way, he will frequently have my company on the flop... and he will find that his play is rarely +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is extremely player dependent and HU you gotta have a read. Maybe at the higher levels players aren't so predictable, but at the $11's there are some players who will almost always fold to a flop bet if they think you aren't a maniac and there are some who will always push at a weak bet.

I'm sure Unarmed adjusts his AK postflop play from game to game.

As for playing against a good player. With blinds the way they usually are by the time you are HU and then with a raise PF, and bet at the flop, you will generally be either committed because of the size of your stack or not have much to call because of your opponant's, so most of the time the opponant will not be able to buy the pot here.

I'm not saying a missed AK is a great hand and should be necessarily be bet - but under very common circumstances it is +EV.

But, to answer your question, I guess I would worry most about something like QJ9 if I had raised PF because I would think it would be just about the most likely for the opponent to hit, while I missed it.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
What do your opponents have on a JT9 board?

[/ QUOTE ]
any one of the following hands: pp's 22-99, AQ, AJ.

I fail to see why you should check.

If your opponent has a drawing hand that you are ahead of (AQ), the action will likely go something like this: Bet, call. check, check. check, minibet, call.

if your opponent has AJ, the action will likely go something like this- bet, big raise, fold.

if your opponent has 99 or KQ the action will likely go something like this: bet, call. check, bet, call or fold (depending on pot odds). check, bet, fold.

if your opponent has an underpair the action will go something like this: bet, fold.

if you check, your opponent will bet and you may call, but will have no clue whatsoever what's going on.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

I guess my suggestion is that your betting patterns are too predictable. Any predictable betting pattern can exploited, no matter how strong your hand is.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're right on. It all stems from misinterpreting DS when he says that the solid player will be tight, but when he enters a pot he will also be very aggressive. I guess there's a difference between being thoughtfully aggressive and just automatically shoving chips into the pot.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do your opponents have on a JT9 board?

[/ QUOTE ]
any one of the following hands: pp's 22-99, AQ, AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]Really? In a $5-20 SNG you put them on exactly 99-22, AQ-AJ?

I don't know what site you're playing on but I think you forgot to add 'any two Broadway' to your list.

[willie24]

my mistake- i missed $5-20. i was assuming this was a higher buyin game.

if this is a $5-20 i probably might push AK preflop. i might raise 8x BB. i might raise 3x BB. i don't know. anyhow you are right, everything i said changes.

[avidguru]

Why push? Seems I see players get knocked out in the early stages constantly by trying this kind of goofiness. Some fish will call, maybe more than one, and beat you with some nutty holding. Why not wait until your hand has more texture?

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
by Irie (in a nice way) who is exactly 1,000,000 times better at HE than you or I am

[/ QUOTE ]

this kind of assumption is both baseless and pointless. you may or may not be right, but it doesn't affect the discussion.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
Why push?

[/ QUOTE ]

mostly for fun. it probably has an EV of about zero since the blinds are nothing. if you can get called by a worse ace it isn't terrible. otherwise it just pisses people off so they give you a lot of action on your big hands. that's the main reason i do it. (pissing people off, not the action)

[avidguru]

Fair dinkum. More variance than I like since I only play a couple STTs a day.

[willie24]

really it's not that much variance. depending on the game (which you would have a read on before you pushed) you may be more likely to get called by a worse ace or some broadway than by AA or KK. if this is true then a push is likely +chips, although less +chips than a realistic raise. the plus side of the push is: #1 it pisses people off (which isn't always good in a tourney, but usually is in a really small buyin tourney). #2. assuming you are generally tight, it causes people to fear you (don't ask why), which is always good in a tournament. #3. it probably decreases your variance as the hand is over and you get the petty blinds the vast majority of the time.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
HU on the flop I think a lead bet after having raised is almost always +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the opposite of the truth. If I notice that a player plays AK this way, he will frequently have my company on the flop... and he will find that his play is rarely +EV.

But the reason why this play is -EV is not because you will be playing against somebody who will control you... it is because you will be getting called by fish with wide ranges and they will accidentally outplay you.

Bad players will assume that your preflop raise is either a big ace or a pair. Post flop they will put you on a small pair if an ace comes, and AK if the board comes rags. This will allow them to call most of your flop bets and make some ridiculouosly ill-advised value bet or bluff later on. The problem is that you can't call them, so you'll fold.

If you ever run into a good player and you play like this, you will get smoked even worse because they won't let you even see the turn.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting post, Irie. I think I partially understand what you mean, although I've only thought about it a little. But...couple comments.
First, has it been a while since you've played/watched the $20s? Because I think you're underestimating the average $20s player's ability to fold.
Second...you play in tournaments with 1000 starting chips, and against players who, I imagine, are considerably less likely to call big preflop raises with marginal/easily dominated hands. Seems to me that the smaller starting stacks at the $20s & the fact that you can raise large preflop and still get calls from plenty of weaker hands protect the "raise with AA-QQ/AK and lead out HU on any flop" from your counter-strategy. That basic strategy runs into trouble for other reasons (e.g. you're more likely to be behind with QQ/KK if an Ace flops since people will call your raises with hands like AJ/AT), but I think it ruins the implied odds so essential to your strategy.
Third, it seems that Dan Harrington disagrees with you in his book. Why do you think that is?

[Double Eagle]

Actually for me, the flops I least like to see are the trap flops like AQJ/T two tone. Lost way more chips on those than the rag boards.....