Flushpumpers anonymous: sanity check

[Guy McSucker]

My name is Guy McSucker and I like to pump flush draws.

Sanity check:

You have 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB. Two limp, SB completes, you check and the flop comes e.g. K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB checks, you either check or bet depending on the weather, and anyway by the time it gets back to you the betting is re-opened and there are still three opponents.

You reraise, right?

What if there are only two opponents?

Then the turn is an ugly card like the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif and you get to the river as cheap as you can, right?

Now the river brings a spade. Oh joy. You put at least a bet or two in there, right? Might slow down if someone wants to go three bets with you.

Right?

Or am I insane?

Guy.

[Rubeskies]

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You reraise, right?

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Of course

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What if there are only two opponents?

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Blast away as long as you got 2+ opponents.


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Right?

Or am I insane?

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Looks all standard to me.

[naphand]

It's all good, or is it?

Getting a return of 3:1 when apparently 2:1 looks a good investment but tempered by the knowledge that this action may only happen when others are on FH draws or bigger flushes than yours. A set makes FH 33% of the time by the River, and you lose to a higher flush around 15-20% of the time (not sure exactly what this should be, see below).

If the answer to the above is "yes", even when you make your flush you will still lose close to 40% of the time, even when no-one has 2 pocket heart cards (just one over a 7 will re-draw 15% of the time if the Turn completes your draw).

I tend not to get too busy with less than 2nd-nut flush draws if I only see this action against big hands that take a lot of my EV away. A set will remove 1/3 of your win %, so you are getting closer to 3:1 in that case; it is possibly more marginal than you might think. Perhaps someone can do the Math for flush draw -vs- flopped set?

[spider]

A couple thoughts:

1. I don't think it really matters much when you have two opponents and are in early postion since it's tough to get a free card from BB.

2. The texture of the flop really matters for how far you want to pump against 2+ opponents. If there's lots of action on a 832 board, you have to worry about a set or bigger flush. On a QJ8 board, the action is probably just queens and straight draws.

Kind of obvious I guess, but enough to make a difference to me in terms of calling a 3-bet vs capping with 75s against 3 opponents. The K82 flop could go either way, I guess, but I would be a little worried if 3 opponents all showed interest.

[Guy McSucker]

Good replies.

Obviously this message was prompted by the fact that I've had the underflush five times in the last two days in this kind of situation, and it's mighty costly! On the other hand I have won some very nice pots in the last few weeks by pumping the draws heavily.

Naphand rightly concludes that to pump every flush draw getting 2-1 on the flop is not going to be +EV, because of the times you're drawing to lose, or the times you're 3-1 against a set. Getting 3-1 on the flop probably covers it, though, since sets and bigger flush draws aren't out there that often. If there's any chance of a free/cheap turn as a result of your aggression, that covers some of the cost too.

Spider is right in saying that I must be more careful in evaluating the texture of these flops, though.

Love you all,

Guy.