Value bet my full boat on the river?

[spydog]

Villian is 33/10 after 30 hands.

The river card took me by surprise and I didn't have a quick answer. Is this a value bet? If so, fold/call a raise?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.66 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero ....

[MarkD]

I check behind here... Although AQ will call you a fair amount... I still check.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind here... Although AQ will call you a fair amount... I still check.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does AQ have after that flop?

[Harv72b]

Check behind. Any K or any J beats you, and I don't think A high calls often enough to make up for the times you get check/raised by a K or called by a J.

[BaronVonCP]

[ QUOTE ]


What does AQ have after that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

The nuts

[ctide]

AQ has a hand that's known as a straight. It's when you have 5 cards in a row, ie T,J,Q,K,A. It's worse than a flush, but beats trips.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
What does AQ have after that flop?


[/ QUOTE ]

You can't read teh board? I saw the straight.

[chief444]

I think you hear from a J on the turn and I doubt if a K checks the river. I wouldn't rule AQ out entirely. May just have chickened out on the turn because of the two J's. QQ is possble. ATs is possible. I think all these call. I would bet it.

[rt1]

woha, i am truely shocked by the replies to this post.

unlikely that villian has AQ based on his preflop aggro and how he totally shuts down after the flop. My guess is he has 77-99 here.

you NEED to bet and fold to a raise. this is the correct play!

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
My guess is he has 77-99 here.

you NEED to bet and fold to a raise. this is the correct play!

[/ QUOTE ]

Would villain call a river bet with 77-99?

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does AQ have after that flop?


[/ QUOTE ]

You can't read teh board? I saw the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't trying to be a smartass. I just think that his postflop action isn't indicative of AQ.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't trying to be a smartass. I just think that his postflop action isn't indicative of AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
AQ is the only hand that villian can have here that will both call you on the end, and lose to you. He does not have A9 or another small ace. This is why I mention that hand specifically.

Some players will play AQ this exact way. They go for the slowplay all the way to the river. Then he sees the board and goes, "Oh, sh*t."

[Bob T.]

He hasn't done anything postflop to indicate that he has a jack or king. I would guess that most often, he has an Ace, and was drawing to on overcard and a gutshot from the flop on. With two pair/ace kicker, it is likely that he will call, so I think a value bet is reasonable here. It is also possible that he has pocket Queens, and might call with those also. With this board, I don't think you need to call a raise on the river, because you have been betting from the flop on, and it would be very scary to raise without a king here.