Mariners Sign Mat Olkin

[Dynasty]

Mariners add a sultan of...stats (http://www.oregonlive.com/mariners/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1106312432108260.xml)

The Red Sox made a big splash a couple years ago by signing Bill James as a stat guru. The Mariners have made a similar move by signing Mat Olkin, a SABR guy who has written for Sports (Baseball) Weekly among other jobs.


P.S.: In 2003, when I was in LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality), Mat Olkin was one of my opponents. He seemed like a nice guy.

[nolanfan34]

And you beat him like a drum, right? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

This is an interesting hire for the M's. They've had a rep for being an old-school type of franchise with Pat Gillick around, so it's interesting that they're hiring a stats guy. I think it's a good sign for M's fans - Bill Bavasi seems at least interested in bringing other opinions on board.

[ThaSaltCracka]

Yeah I heard about this a week ago, seems to be the trend now in baseball. This is definitely a step in the right direction for the M's, but I wish they had hired him before they started signing players this year.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I heard about this a week ago, seems to be the trend now in baseball. This is definitely a step in the right direction for the M's, but I wish they had hired him before they started signing players this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I would guess that Olkin wouldn't have told them anything different about signing either Beltre or Sexson. They were going to have to overpay for free agents, and both of those guys have the stats and skills to be worthwhile signees.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I heard about this a week ago, seems to be the trend now in baseball. This is definitely a step in the right direction for the M's, but I wish they had hired him before they started signing players this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I would guess that Olkin wouldn't have told them anything different about signing either Beltre or Sexson. They were going to have to overpay for free agents, and both of those guys have the stats and skills to be worthwhile signees.

[/ QUOTE ] true true, dude I am so looking forward to this season.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
true true, dude I am so looking forward to this season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're going to be pissed about moving away if you go to a game with me. I get seats g00t.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
true true, dude I am so looking forward to this season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're going to be pissed about moving away if you go to a game with me. I get seats g00t.

[/ QUOTE ]no, I will definitely come up for M's games.

[JoeC]

You were in LABR?? Please elaborate.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
You were in LABR?? Please elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was in LABR as a regular guy in 2003 and finished in first place (still peeved that I didn't get invited back in 2004 to defend title). There are many posts about it in the OOT archives.

I got in simply by responding to a John Hunt article asking for applictions to join.

The auction was in Phoenix on the first weekend in March. I flew in well prepared and think I flew out with the best team. I didn't make any trades during the year.

I was in first place through most of the year but lost it in early September. With 9-10 days left in the season, I was down by about 8 points and in big trouble. But, I climbed back and with one day to go held a 0.5 point lead. Sadly, the second place team (All Star Stats/RotoWorld) got a win and picked up half a point and finished the season tied with me in first place.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


Well, I would guess that Olkin wouldn't have told them anything different about signing either Beltre or Sexson. They were going to have to overpay for free agents, and both of those guys have the stats and skills to be worthwhile signees.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Beltre signing was very good. The Sexon signing was ridiculous. This guy ripped his shoulder twice with a checked swing! If Richie stays healthy the whole 4 years you are paying $12M a year for good (not great) hitting, combined with bad defense and baserunning. And giving up draft picks for the privilege.

Adrift in a sea of incompetence, the DBacks only good move this offseason, was not resigning Richie.

[ThaSaltCracka]

sure they overpaid Sexson, but your analysis oh him is terrible.

bad defense?
.993 F% at 1b, with a Rf of 9.06

as for his hitting, he averages 39 homers over a 162 game season. IMO, you are just pissed about his injury last year. If he is healthy he will be very productive, they still overpaid him though.

[DesertCat]

You're right, I was harsh, he's not a bad first baseman. But first is not a premium defensive position so you only getting value from his bat. And though he can crush the ball, he can't do much else (run, steal, avoid grounding into double plays). Here is his OPS+ the last four years before the injury.

2003 - 136
2002 - 130
2001 - 124
2000 - 112

Here's Delgado's last four years before his injury.

2003 - 160
2002 - 153
2001 - 141
2000 - 182

Carlos was available for a few mil more than Richie. And he's actually already come back from his injury, so I think his risk is much less.

Now think even cheaper. Think Bucky Jacobsen.

2004 - 122

Bucky's OPS+ is not much less than what you can reasonably expect from Richie, and he's (practically) free. Why spend $12M a year to upgrade a position's offense 10% or so, and take a huge four year injury risk to do so?

Don't you think the Mariners could have spent that money elsewhere to add more wins with less risk? And to build a long term winner, don't you think those two draft picks they sacrificed would have helped?

[ThaSaltCracka]

well I personally wanted them to get Delgado.

As for Bucky... he is not in the M's plans, he is simply to old to be a rookie.

[VBM]

someone would do good to lightly jostle Nate Tha' Great, our esteemed 2+2 sabermetrician, to get his take on this "signing"...;)

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
someone would do good to lightly jostle Nate Tha' Great, our esteemed 2+2 sabermetrician, to get his take on this "signing"...;)

[/ QUOTE ]I haven't seen Nate over here since the WS.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
As for Bucky... he is not in the M's plans, he is simply to old to be a rookie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well despite this he was a rookie anyways:) No, I get what you are saying. Bucky is old enough that he is unlikely to improve. But the same is true of Richie. They both have injury risk. And Richie is significantly better. But I just question his cost.

Besides Delgado, I would have preferred JD Drew. Same amount of money, but you are strengthening a weaker area where you don't have a decent cheap player already. Barring that, Magglio Ordonez if you could get him on a short or conditional deal to ensure he's healthy.

[ThaSaltCracka]

naw, they did not need another outfielder unless it would be someone that was a significant upgrade. I thought Delgado would have been a great upgrade at first.

Oh well.

[goofball]

i'm fairly certain everyone wanted them to get delgado

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
naw, they did not need another outfielder unless it would be someone that was a significant upgrade.

[/ QUOTE ]

Career OPS+
Randy Winn - 99
Raul Ibanez - 103
Magglio Ordonez - 127
JD Drew - 133

Ibanez did have his best season last year (OPS+ 121), but is unlikely to repeat as both he and Randy are past typical career peak years. Magglio or Drew would be huge upgrades over these guys. A good team needs much better than league average hitting from it's corner outfields fielders.

And Ichiro should be playing centerfield, WTF is up with keeping him in right after Cammie left? He spent his whole Japanese career in center, and with his arm he'd be perfect for Safeco.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I am hoping Winn gets traded, yeah Magglio would have been nice but he costs so much, and Drew just doesn't seem very tough to me. He had a great season last year but I can't help but think he stepped it up simply because it was a contract year.

[Gatts]

FP and RF are pretty usless stats.

Sexson is not worth his contract. He is a slightly above average 1B, and an aging one at that. Average 1Bs are cheap and readily available for a lot less than what he was paid. That money could be paid toward positions like CF, MIF, and 3B.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
FP and RF are pretty usless stats.


[/ QUOTE ]no there not, errors are uselss stats.

[Gatts]

and FP is simply the rate stat of errors, while RF is too heavily influenced by outside factors: pitcher tendencies, parks, etc.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
and FP is simply the rate stat of errors, while RF is too heavily influenced by outside factors: pitcher tendencies, parks, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]so is every stat, whats your point?

[Gatts]

It matters so much more for RF than for any other stat, though.

When it comes to offensive statistics, we can adjust for the quality of pitching faced, we can adjust for ballpark, we can adjust for league. These things are relatively simple to do.

When it comes to defense, we can't adjust very well for the pitcher's handedness, stadium, positioning of the players, etc. There's some usefull stuff hidden behind all the chaff, probably, but not much at all.

There are some useful defensive metrics. Oakland, LA, and St. Louis all have propietary defensive metrics that use Play by Play data to analyze defense, the most famous being Mitch Lichtman's Ultimate Zone Rating (the Cards have it locked up). Baseball Prospectus has a defensive metric, but I haven't looked at it closely because UZR is so good.

[ThaSaltCracka]

can I please have a link for UZR, I would like to look at it.

[Gatts]

[ QUOTE ]
can I please have a link for UZR, I would like to look at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's propietary, so no new figures leaguewide have been released since 2003 but you can see the 2000-2003 numbers here (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html) . This page (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR9903TT.html) shows 1999-2003 numbers that are adjust for position.

[DesertCat]

Richie's a minus three, but that's still much better than Thome and Konerko.

These USR numbers also explain why the Dodgers think their infield defense will be as good as ever with Jeff Kent and Jose Valentin.

[Gatts]

Yeah, Dodgers have a system that seems awfully similar to UZR