A6s UTG - Tough Bubble Decision

[El Maximo]

This was a tough decision for me. I was stumped on this one.
Big stack will call. He has been playing very loose. If Big stack calls my push, BB will fold. BB has been hanging around just waiting for me to bust out. What my best play?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t445)
Hero (t1010)
Button (t2765)
SB (t3780)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero ??

[rachelwxm]

Fold.

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]

Big stack will call. He has been playing very loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO you have no way of knowing what big stack will do. He's open-raised a lot but hasn't called any raises.

The previous HHs are here:

Full HHs (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1608526&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[gvibes]

I push and don't think twice about it.

[spentrent]

Push. A6 beats three random hands. Don't play for third in a SNG. I guess that's a matter of opinion. I recently changed my mind for this situation -- I get sick to my stomach folding that hand now. Yeah, it hurts to see the smaller stack sneak in behind you, but it won't happen enough to make you cry.

[ColdestCall]

Based on the information you gave, I'd say you have to fold. If Big Stack will definitely call a push from you, seems like he's also likely to set short stack all-in here. If not, SB very well may. The only bad scenario if you fold is everyone folding around to BB, and even that isnt the end of the world. If that doesnt happen, BB will be all-in either this hand or next.

I understand those who say you should play for first in SNG's, but I think people sometimes get carried away with that concept. This particular example, where there is a very short stack all-in within two hands, and your stack is well below the other two players, seems to me to exemplify the situation where you should try and lock up some money first, and then try to get some more.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack will call. He has been playing very loose. If Big stack calls my push, BB will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typical $EV math problem. I'll let somebody else do it, although my gut says fold. But if you play, you should minraise, instead.

[ericlambi]

Here's my esitmate. If A6s wins 60% of the time against a random hand, big stack will call no matter what, and BB will fold no matter what:

Push: .6( .1 * 0 + .3 * 40 + .3 * 60 + .3 * 100 ) + .4 * 0 = $36

Fold: .3 * 0 + .4 * 40 + .2 * 60 + .1 * 100 = $38

Unless my estimates are significantly wrong or I screwed this math up in my head, it's close enough either way that it doesn't matter. Since winning is more fun than getting 2nd or 3rd, I'd push.

[sofere]

Minraise with 3.5 BB??? That doesn't sound like typical advice from you Adanthar. Could you explain your thought process here?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Minraise with 3.5 BB??? That doesn't sound like typical advice from you Adanthar. Could you explain your thought process here?

[/ QUOTE ]

If SB is calling anyway, you get to see whether the BB calls or folds. If he calls, you check it down or go all in if an ace hits and so on. If he folds, he's all in next hand and if the flop is K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif you can now check/fold to the SB bet.

If the SB goes all in, the decision hasn't changed anything, and there's always the chance the button has kings and the SB aces or vice versa or something.

Since you have zero FE, you may as well get the benefit of making an extra decision with more information later. Being pot committed is irrelevant since on a really terrible flop you can always choose to play for third.

[sofere]

I dunno, this seams a little weak to me. If you fold, your left with <1.5BB. If SB raises pf and BB folds, do you fold getting almost 4:1 Pot odds? Even after a missed flop thats still pretty good.
I think it'll be pretty hard to get away from any hand after a minraise. IMO, it seems that pushing or folding is better than minraise.

[Ship_it_tome]

never miniraise, the goal , great players have is to get first place. Any great player would push in a second. The SB should fold to BB, so why not try and beat the bb yourself. If you get heads up with him, u still have no fold equity and can play your bb with any two anyways, however, plus, the bb just might fold, if he has complete garbage and has no idea about pot odds.

[ChrisV]

I think it's close, but between folding and limping rather than folding and pushing. I don't know why adanthar suggests minraising instead of limping. BB is pot committed so there's no point in minraising.

The problem with pushing to isolate BB and take him out is that A6s wins less than 60% of the time against a random hand. However if one of the big stacks calls your push you are likely to be in deep trouble, often only 30% or 25% to avoid busting out of the tournament. There's therefore little to gain and much to lose from pushing.

The problem with folding is that it might well fold round to the SB. Neither of the other stacks has a reason to raise with poor hands and SB may even wish to protect the short stack.

If you limp and one of the other stacks pushes, if BB is foolish enough to fold, you can fold. He'll be forced allin twice more before you get forced allin. A rational BB will understand that he cannot win the folding war and will call a push to maximise his chances of getting a higher placing. If you limp and one of the other stacks pushes and BB calls, call.

I would limp. I think folding is a little weak.

Saying "great players play to win" is just a cliche. Great players play to maximise $EV.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is pot committed so there's no point in minraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB has 72o and the flop is KQJ, he's going to choose to play for third and fold no matter how pot committed he seems to be. I want him to make the decision before he has that information, *especially* because if I limp I am basically giving up 300 chips when he does fold the flop.

Plus, limping now lets the button into the hand, too. Limping's no good.

Frankly, this is why I fold in the first place. (Don't worry about the SB folding. Guys like that don't fold without 32o.)