Is this a value bet?

[TStoneMBD]

Hero is UTG with AKo

Hero raises, UTG3 3bets, 2 coldcalls, BB calls, Hero caps, all call.

Flop: 259r
Hero bets, all call.

Turn: 6
Hero checks, MP bets, all call

River: A

i know everyone would say that this is a clear value bet since the pot is so big and people will pay you off, but after ive telegraphed my hand so clearly shouldnt i be worried about getting raised?

[sthief09]

if you check, it's likely only a better hand will bet. if you bet, it's likely only a better hand will raise, but worse hands will call, because that's what crappy opponents like to do, call. yeah, it's definitely a crappy spot, because even the worst hand readers know exactly what you have, but what can ya do other than bet your A?

[na4bart]

Yes, it's thin, but bet the ace because worse hands will still call even though your hand is plain. Barring a perfect read, call a raise.

[URMeowed]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, it's thin

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when is top pair top kicker on a relatively safe looking board a TVB? Meow?

[na4bart]

I am assuming the other guy can read the board. What range of hands can he put the better on?

[Clarkmeister]

I like the cat.

[lil feller]

Given the way the action flowed, my initial thought would be that UTG3 either has the same hand as you, or flopped a set of 9's. Without a description of the players it tough to say, for sure, but no other hands really make sense, or am I missing something? That being the case, I'd check this river to see what happens, and only plan on calling one bet. The other players had to call with something on the turn (what sort of hands do these people cold call 3 bets with?), and the A is not the card you wanted to hit (one of those unlikely and unfortunate spots when you make 1 pair, they make 2...)

I have to say though, that without any descriptions of the players its nearly impossible to give you an accurate answer.

lf

[drbk2]

Easy value bet. How many times has an ace hit the river, someone bets it, and others in the hand roll their eyes, say "AK is good" but call anyway?

[esspo]

Agreed. If hero checks, the only time money goes in the pot is when he's behind. For the river to be profitable for hero he must also get money in there when he is ahead. Only way that is happening is if hero bets, especially given that hero telgraphed his hand so well.

[Vince Lepore]

Why would you call the turn if you didn't think an Ace or King would win the hand? Calling the turn makes a river bet a must when you make your hand.

Vince

[esspo]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the way the action flowed, my initial thought would be that UTG3 either has the same hand as you, or flopped a set of 9's. Without a description of the players it tough to say, for sure, but no other hands really make sense, or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

What about 66-88, TT-KK, AQs and AJs? I am actually not as worried about UTG-3 as I am one of the other straglers.

[Brainwalter]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you call the turn if you didn't think an Ace or King would win the hand? Calling the turn makes a river bet a must when you make your hand.

Vince

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting like 18 to 1 closing the action on the turn. He thinks an A or K will win the hand more than 1/2 of the time, so he calls. Whether he can value bet the river is not the same question. (But I think he can)

[elysium]

hi ts

with that many in there and Axs possibly hitting 2-pair on the river, as well as a strong MP, you should check-call, and fold if it comes back 2 cold.

the cap on the pre-flop by you isn't good.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you call the turn if you didn't think an Ace or King would win the hand? Calling the turn makes a river bet a must when you make your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question.

[TStoneMBD]

the cap preflop isnt good? could you elaborate here? i thought it was the standard in a multiway pot. i was about 99% sure that i wasnt dominated.

[BarronVangorToth]

With all of those cold-calls, you could make a case for simply calling the 3-bet, depending on your read of the table.

As to the question -- bet the river, you're going to get called by a few random people with big pocket pairs that they won't lay down.

Going back to Clarkmeister's post in another thread, if you bet this at the Mirage, you'd get the locals to fold as they like folding Queens when an Ace hits as you must have an Ace at all times or you wouldn't bet, since they are local, and therefore superior to you.

At Turning Stone, I can't imagine not getting action from inferior hands.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
What about 66-88, TT-KK, AQs and AJs

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, tough to say without some kind of read. But don't you think that any of the pair hands raise the hero's flop bet. And don't you think that the smallers Aces would check the turn with so many people behind them, none of those hands seem to fit, unless UTG3 is just aweful.

lf

[skp]

While you may have telegraphed your hand, so did the preflop 3 bettor. He called your flop bet and then checked the turn after you checked. So, it stands to reason that he too has an ace in all likelihood. So, you could consider checking, let him bet and snag a curiosity call or two before you checkraise.

Note: That's just a consideration. Nothing wrong with just betting out too.

I am not saying that the flop bet is right or wrong, but what are your reasons for betting the flop?

[Diplomat]

[ QUOTE ]


the cap on the pre-flop by you isn't good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surely you jest.

-Diplomat

[DcifrThs]

DS & MM say that in these situations they'd rather have KQ vs. AK b/c hitting an ace is much more likely to give somebody two pair than KQ because in multiway pots Axs or Ax is more likely to be out there than Kx or Qx.

with that being said i still think you're in a big enough pot that betting or c'r is a good play. do not check intending to call on this river, you lose too much value.

as the pot size increases, calling frequency increases, thus betting frequency must increase. the absolute value of the bets you gain remain the same and the likelihood of being called by worse hands increase AND the likelihood of being raised by a worse hand or even a better hand is less likely b/c that person wants to win this huge pot...its a win/win/win imo.

bet or checkraise depending on whether you think AQ or AJ or any lone ace will bet and call...but i PREFER betting out because of the calling frequency of my opponents given the pot size.

-Barron

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
ive telegraphed my hand so clearly shouldnt i be worried about getting raised?

[/ QUOTE ]
My general experience is that the set of people who understand what you're telegraphing and will lay down a reasonable hand on the river and the set of people who call three bets cold preflop from a UTG raiser and UTG3 reraiser don't intersect nearly as much as you seem to fear.

[Vince Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
He thinks an A or K will win the hand more than 1/2 of the time, so he calls

[/ QUOTE ]

That is an interesting point. If he will win the hand with an A or K half the time is calling correct? He only makes an A or K 1 in 7 times. He wins half of them, so the math at this point makes it close but what happens when he makes his hand but loses? He probably loses 1 bet on the river. I think if you work it out 1/2 wins does not warrant the call. Plus how do you come up with 1/2 wins?

Vince

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]

My general experience is that the set of people who understand what you're telegraphing and will lay down a reasonable hand on the river and the set of people who call three bets cold preflop from a UTG raiser and UTG3 reraiser don't intersect nearly as much as you seem to fear.

[/ QUOTE ]


Bingo!

Just last week I was on the button with black Aces, there was a raise and a reraise ahead of me. I capped it. The raisers all called. Board came up A-K-Q. After much action on the flop and on the turn, it eventually came down to heads-up between me and the original raiser and he called me down with ... pocket 10's. He's played with me for YEARS and he has never seen me open-cap a pot with 9's or less EVER and yet ... he called me with a hand that can't possibly win.

It happens.

Bet.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
If he will win the hand with an A or K half the time is calling correct? He only makes an A or K 1 in 7 times. He wins half of them, so the math at this point makes it close but what happens when he makes his hand but loses? He probably loses 1 bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
But the times that he makes his hand on the river and it is good, he will collect some bets. Half the time that he improves he will lose one bet on the river, or two if he bets and gets raised. The other half the time that he improves, he will collect several bets. When he doesn't improve, he will gain or lose no bets. He should collect more bets when he improves and his hand is good than he will lose when he improves and his hand his no good, so implied odds here are working in his favor. Plus, he is getting the immediate odds he needs to call on the turn, given that he will improve 1 in 7 times and win half of those times. So the turn call is fine if we assume that he is winning half the time that he hits.

[Vince Lepore]

My guess is that, given the board, he is more likely to lose when and Ace hits than a K. So he should always bet a K. Should always bet an Ace too. I think he only loses a bet on the river when he hits and is bet into. So I still believe that if he decides to call the turn and an Ace or King when they hit and it is checked to him he has to bet. That was my original point.

Vince

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you call the turn if you didn't think an Ace or King would win the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't count the aces and kings as six outs. You might adjust down to three or four outs and let the pot size dictate whether or not you call the turn.

[elysium]

hi diplomat

capping with AKo is not advisable. the 3-bet takes away the lead from AKo, unless it's a wild game. as far as betting out on the river, i like calling because betting out will foldout the field often enough to make the risk of getting raised not worth taking.

the thing is that the busted draws behind the MP will not call if he bets and the MP calls, so checking only risks losing 1 bet, not 2 or more. in fact, he doesn't want 2 calls on the river because then the odds of him having the best hand diminish considerably. he wants only 1 call, the MP's.

if he checks, the pot is big enough for the KK MP to bet trying to get the weak A to fold. but if the MP checks, then the busted will bet trying to represent the A. he could lose the whole pot by checking and having it come back 2 cold when he has the best hand, but this can happen if he bets out as well, albeit not as often. in any event, he does have a value bet on the river, but he doesn't want to be called in 2 spots. he knows that if the MP alone calls, he is the winner. this is not true if there is an over-caller. the possibility of an over-caller takes away the value from betting, and instead increases his pot odds and enhances the value of calling based on those increased odds. it's usually also correct to risk losing 1 bet by checking when the risk of losing 1 bet by betting is greater. and i think that's the case here, both when he gets raised and when the busted draw takes a stab at it. as far as his wanting an over-caller vs. a lone MP caller, it is simply too easy to see that his odds of winning the pot drop off dramatically in the case of the over-caller. however, an over-caller is so likely that he doesn't have a value bet on the river.

am i sure of this? yeah....i'm pretty sure diplomat. could i be wrong? no....i don't think so. it's a question of whether or not he wants over-callers vs. a lone MP call, and the high probability of the over-caller. you need to remember that just because the presence of a likely over-caller doesn't affect his pot odds, it doesn't mean that the over-caller doesn't remove the value of a bet. his pot odds actually increase, but the value of betting is totally removed being way more fragile than pot odds. clearly, the over-caller reduces the chances of his winning so drastically from the case of the lone MP caller, that only a fool would want an over-call. however, even though the MP caller drastically reduces the chances of his winning vs. a field foldout, that doesn't mean that if only the MP were calling and no one else, that he wouldn't want the MP to call his river bet. that's because the first figure is 100% success. that's not true when the MP vs. over-caller is considered. with the lone MP caller, he wins the great majority of the time; with the over-caller, he wins about half the time. it's not just one bet he risking, as you can see it's many bets, assuming he could push a button and have either a lone MP call, or an over-caller. do you see that? that's what i'm talking about.

[danderso8]

my thoughts exactly

[skp]

...Swooosh....

You kill me, big E...heh

[TStoneMBD]

thanks for all the great posts here. there were some clear disagreements so im not sure which way to go at the moment, but there is certainly alot to think about. i have trouble following elysium when he responds to threads. either im too dumb, hes too smart, or he rambles too much. i dont mean to be condescending to you elysium, youre a great thinker, and your posts are well thought out, but its true that you ramble alot, at least in my opinion.

anyway, i kind of lied about this hand. the whole hand actually occurred, except that the ace did not actually come on the river. instead, a T fell. i check folded. the 3bettor didnt show, coldcaller1 showed TT, coldcaller2 showed 34s for a straight, and the BB said he had A9. coldcaller2 is some dips*** hotshot who likes to brag about how he plays shorthanded 80-160 at the borgata and whatnot. truth is, he won a couple of big tournaments, probably by luck and therefore thinks hes king of the world. i think he called 3 cold simply because he doesnt care about the money i guess.