bad beat jackpot odds

[newhizzle]

I'd like to figure out what the odds of any person at a 10 person ring game having 4 8s or better beat, I generally play in the bad beat tables at party poker because of the looser action, but would like to know how bog the pot would need to be for me to actually be making a profit simply by playing there.

[Sparks]

I asked for odds on a bad beat a week or so ago in this forum, and got no responses. Wonder if you'll do any better? Maybe it's not calcuable?

Sparks

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's not calcuable?

[/ QUOTE ]
It can't be calculated exactly because it depends on how people play. If people stick around for backdoor straight flushes when the flop comes paired, it will be easier to hit than if they never do. Similarly, if no one ever folds 88 or better preflop, even if it is 3 bets cold to them, it will easier to hit. If you assume that everyone always goes to a showdown, then it can be calculated exactly. But I would still have no idea what the answer is. I'd guess that hitting the jackpot is probably pretty hard /images/graemlins/cool.gif.

[Cobra]

Here is a web site that answers that question.

http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp46.pdf

Cobra