Using odds quickly

[mreinecker]

I know how to determine outs, but how can you quickly/easily turn that into odds that you can compare to pot odds ? I'd appreciate it if someone took the time to explain this to me. Thanks.

[Mojo Tooth]

It's not math that most people can do in their heads. The easiest thing to do is memorize certain common situations, then expand on those situations as you encounter them.

For example. Let's say a flop gives you a strong drawing hand, either to a flush or open-ended straight. If you know you will be around for the turn and river, then the chances of making a flush are about one in three, or 2:1 against. So the required pot odds should be close to 2:1, or better.

Same thing for the OESD, although the chance is slightly worse, it still rounds to about 2:1 against, so same pot odds.

(None of this takes into account implied odds, which Mr. Sklansky says I should do unless I'm a bad boy)

Now let's say you find yourself getting a fourth flush card on the turn after both you and your opponents check a non-descript flop. You only have one card to come, and you'll hit your flush about one time in five or about 4:1 against. For the open-ended straight draw case, the rounding ends up making this a bit different and the odds are about 5:1 against.

So remember the odds requirements for flush draws and straight draws, that's a good place to start. Add in a couple more very common situations like two pair drawing to a boat (which is the same odds as drawing to an gutshot straight draw, same number of outs, so that one comes for free). Pretty soon you find yourself with a decent little set of odds that come up frequently that you already know.

You can also fudge the numbers a bit for certain situations. Let's say you're drawing to an outside straight, and you're pretty sure that your opponent is sitting on a flush draw. That means that two of the cards that complete your straight make a winning hand for your opponent, so you should adjust the required pot odds quite a bit. Even without knowing the math off the top of your head, you can say you need to increase those pot odds by 50% or more and that will help you make the decision most of the time.

[walterberk]

easiest way is this: unseen cards/# of outs -1.

So if you have 4 outs, with the river to come (46 cards unseen- 52-2 in your hand-4 on the board)

46/4=11.5 - 1 = 10.5 to 1. But these are much easier to use if you just memorize them.

[HTML Samurai]

In Phil Gordon's Poker: The Real Deal, Phil offers a quick and dirty formula for these calculations. Before the Turn, you simply multiply outs times four. Before the River, outs times two. Like I said, quick and dirty, but fairly accurate.

For example, you flopped a flush draw. You have nine outs. So, before the Turn you are at about 36% (9 x 4) to hit the flush and 18% (9 x 2) if you missed it on the Turn.

I hope this helps.

[duma]

Comes from that nut John turmel. Memorize this array:

Outs: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 21
Odds: 45 22 14 10 08 07 06 05 04 04 03 03 03 02 02 02 1.5 1.2

(I added some zeros to help out with spacing) Pretty simple, and saves all the mental gymnastics when multi-tabling.
If you want to remember quickly, multiply the odds by the
outs, you can see some distinct patterns. Or you can add the outs and the odds together to see other patterns.

[TenPercenter]

[ QUOTE ]
In Phil Gordon's Poker: The Real Deal, Phil offers a quick and dirty formula for these calculations. Before the Turn, you simply multiply outs times four. Before the River, outs times two. Like I said, quick and dirty, but fairly accurate.

For example, you flopped a flush draw. You have nine outs. So, before the Turn you are at about 36% (9 x 4) to hit the flush and 18% (9 x 2) if you missed it on the Turn.

I hope this helps.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great shortcut for me, I am horrible at quick "head" math. And I work with percentages much better than odds.

is there a similar way to get the percentage for pot odds?

Ten

ps: How is that book? I would say I'm well past beginner stage in holde'em and poker in general. But I could use some more "QaD" pointers/tips.

[Mojo Tooth]

[ QUOTE ]
In Phil Gordon's Poker: The Real Deal, Phil offers a quick and dirty formula for these calculations. Before the Turn, you simply multiply outs times four. Before the River, outs times two. Like I said, quick and dirty, but fairly accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not bad. I might start using that.

Another thing to remember is that if you use the formula for "River" odds on the Turn because you're only planning on making one call at the most, it's not a big mathematical mistake. It might be a STRATEGIC mistake, but not a math one. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[HTML Samurai]

It's pretty good - but not a strategy or how to book. This is a book about poker, casinos, and tournaments. What to expect, how to react, and what Phil went through on his way to becoming a professional poker player - including the mistakes he learned from, so you don't have to. If you are wanting to learn more about how to play if a scare card comes up on the River, this is not the book for you. If you are looking for an entertaining read about the poker world from the perspective of someone that was lived it (as well as a few pointers), this is the book for you. I have also heard that 'Poker Nation' by Andy Bellin is the same type of book. I have not read it yet, but it is on my list.

And I am glad I could help.

[VinnyTheFish]

Link to other posts (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=inet&Number=1207144&fpart= &PHPSESSID=)

[SpeakEasy]

Roughly the same formulas from a Cardplayer article that I now use constantly, to calculate the percentage chance of hitting an out:

On the Flop:
1-8 outs --> Outs x 4
9-12 outs --> (Outs x 4) - 1
13+ outs --> (Outs x 4) - 4

On the Turn:
(Outs x 2) + 2


Example:
I hold AQo, board is K J 9

I estimate my outs on the flop to be any ace or ten -- 7 outs. Formula: 7x4=28. 28% chance of seeing one of my cards on the turn or river. Calculating on the fly, this is roughly 4 to 1. If the pot + bets is giving me better than 4 to 1 odds, I call on the flop (or raise, if the situation dictates).

For turning the percentages into pot odds, just remember some basic benchmarks:
50% chance requires 2 to 1 pot odds.
33% chance requires 3 to 1 pot odds.
25% chance requires 4 to 1 pot odds.
20% chance requires 5 to 1 pot odds.
16% chance requires about 6 to 1 pot odds.
10% chance requires 10 to 1 pot odds.

Although we see posts on here that calculate hands with scientific precision, rough odds are close enough for me in a game. If my chance of hitting an out is 36%, I'll call it 3 to 1 odds. If the chance is 18%, I'll call it 5 to 1 odds because its close to the 20% benchmark. This helps to prevent brain-lock in the middle of the action.

A good way to practice this is at some low-level limit HE games, where you should be calculating odds constantly on draws.

[Fins]

[ QUOTE ]
<snip>
I have also heard that 'Poker Nation' by Andy Bellin is the same type of book. I have not read it yet, but it is on my list.

And I am glad I could help.

[/ QUOTE ]

An excellent entertaining read... kind of equate it to "Bringing Down the House" (the MIT BJ book). If your looking for more than search elsewhere.

- Fins

[mreinecker]

Can someone also explain to me the connection between the pot odds and the odds of hitting your outs ? I understand now how to calculate both types of odds, but what is the connection between them that will justify a call ? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[CaptLego]

[ QUOTE ]

For turning the percentages into pot odds, just remember some basic benchmarks:
50% chance requires 2 to 1 pot odds.
33% chance requires 3 to 1 pot odds.
25% chance requires 4 to 1 pot odds.
20% chance requires 5 to 1 pot odds.
16% chance requires about 6 to 1 pot odds.
10% chance requires 10 to 1 pot odds.



[/ QUOTE ]

uh... you need to subtract 1 from each of those odds.
For example, if your number of outs gives you a 50% chance of winning, that means you'll win 1/2 of the time. That's an even money bet. You only need pot odds of 1:1, not 2:1.
(Of course, in a limit game, you'll always get better that 1:1 pot odds, but a no-limit game could approach 1:1 pot odds)
In this example, imagine a pot of $1 and you need to call a $1 bet. Call. Do this twice. You'll win 50% of the time, so on average, you win 1 of the two pots. You spend $2 to call twice, winning a pot of $2 once. You break even.

Similarly, if your outs give you a 25% chance of winning, then you need 3:1 pot odds, not 4:1. You call 4 times (costs $4) and win 25% of the pots (one out the four), and the winning pot will be $4 ($3 plus your call of $1). At 3:1 pot odds, your call with a 25% chance of winning will be a break-even decision.

[Mizzles]

Yeah let's see if I have this right. 15/30 hold 'em, say you have AK on the turn and figure you need an A or K on the river to win. That's 6 outs. 46/6 = 7.67 or 6.67 to 1. So that means there needs to be $200 (6.67 * 30) in the pot to make a call correct?

[Fins]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah let's see if I have this right. 15/30 hold 'em, say you have AK on the turn and figure you need an A or K on the river to win. That's 6 outs. 46/6 = 7.67 or 6.67 to 1. So that means there needs to be $200 (6.67 * 30) in the pot to make a call correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's what I get /images/graemlins/wink.gif

You can think of it in terms of big bets also... Pot of 7BB to justify (if that's really what you need to win). It can be easier to keep track of bets than dollars... just count 'em as it goes around then half it at the turn since pre/post flop bets are half BB's.

My 2¢,
Fins

[Mojo Tooth]

[ QUOTE ]
For turning the percentages into pot odds, just remember some basic benchmarks:
50% chance requires 2 to 1 pot odds.
33% chance requires 3 to 1 pot odds.
25% chance requires 4 to 1 pot odds.
20% chance requires 5 to 1 pot odds.
16% chance requires about 6 to 1 pot odds.
10% chance requires 10 to 1 pot odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to be a jerk, Speakeasy, but all of these numbers are completely busted. You're not counting the "1" in your 4:1 properly. Remember, if you have 4:1 against that means one chance in FIVE, not one chance in four. One out of five is 20%, not 25%.

If you want to do a mental exercise, figure out how good your odds would have to be to be mathematically assured of making money in the long run by betting on, say, a coin flip. You know you have a 50-50 chance. So if you risk a dollar to win a dollar you should come out even. So why wait until the pot odds are 2:1 before you bet on this 50% chance?

[RackOChips]

Fins right. Thats the way I do it, just keep trak of BBs. This simplifies the thought process and makes many decisions more clear.

[CaptLego]

Counting bets is fine for limit, but for no-limit, you'll need to count the $ and do the math.

[Bradyams]

[ QUOTE ]
but for no-limit, you'll need to count the $ and do the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, sometimes I stop keeping track of what's in the pot, and I'll suddenly need to know. I usually end up staring at all the scattered chips until I say "[censored] it" and call anyway /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Mizzles]

No message

[kevyk]

Here's how I do it:

The calculation of odds based on outs is based on the percentage of time you will win:

n:1 where n=(100-%win)/%win

% win with one card to come is #outs/47 (turn) or #outs/46 (river). However, as long as #outs<<47, you can approximate this percentage as 2*#outs. So the odds calculation becomes:

n:1 where n=(100-2*#outs)/(2*#outs)
or
n:1 where n=(50/#outs)-1

This is a reasonable approximation of the odds based on number of outs. However, not many numbers between 1 and 8 (the range of values for #outs which is the most important) divide evenly into 50, so I like to use 48. 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 are all factors of 48. The equation as I use it reads:

n:1 where n=48/#outs-1

If you are uncomfortable with all of these approximations, the following table presents the approximate value as generated by the last equation, along with the true value.

Outs Approximate Odds True Odds Error
1 47.0 46.0 1.0
2 23.0 22.5 0.5
3 15.0 14.7 0.3
4 11.0 10.8 0.25
5 8.6 8.4 0.2
6 7.0 6.8 0.16
7 5.9 5.7 0.14
8 5.0 4.8 0.12
9 4.3 4.2 0.11
10 3.8 3.7 0.10

The error term is 1/#outs.

This seems like a fairly simple expression for calculating odds; I like this equation better than memorizing tables.

[CaptLego]

That looks like a pretty handy formula.

In practice (for me, at least) it seems crazy to worry about decimal places in odds tables. The errors I make in estimating the number of outs are much larger than rounding off the numbers in a table. How many times have you hit one of your "outs", only to bet and lose the pot? (Too often, for me.) If you're drawing to a king-high flush, how many outs do you have? 9? 1? How many times will you lose to an ace-high flush? Or how often will the board pair, and your nut flush is crushed by a boat?

I'm usually too optimistic on counting my # of outs. But any error in estimating the # of outs will have a larger affect than rounding the numbers in the table.

[Fins]

[ QUOTE ]
Counting bets is fine for limit, but for no-limit, you'll need to count the $ and do the math.

[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely... for calling & betting. Can also help to set random stacks up and practice "guestimating".

- Fins

[Fins]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but for no-limit, you'll need to count the $ and do the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, sometimes I stop keeping track of what's in the pot, and I'll suddenly need to know. I usually end up staring at all the scattered chips until I say "[censored] it" and call anyway /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Goes well with the if you can't decide whether to call or fold... always call - it's more fun that way!

I like the "why the heck did you call with that #$%@!!!"
A: 'cause It'd looked more fun than folding /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

- Fins