Eastbay & Irieguy & Math

[NegativeEV]

From a recent post:

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t2500)
Button (About 2 Go Out) (t500)
Hero (t1425)
BB (t3575)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K.
UTG folds, Button (About 2 Go Out) raises to t500 (All-In),
Hero...

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Eastbay's thoughts:
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Quote:
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This isn't a math problem, it's a psychology problem.


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Certainly the estimates needed for inputs to the math problem require some "psychology". But that doesn't take away the need to do the math once the inputs are estimated.

In this case it may be that the answer is dominated by those estimates - those are the interesting poker problems. But I'm quite certain Scuba doesn't even know how to approach it, otherwise he wouldn't be asking these questions. So I'm trying to get him to ask the right questions, so that he can begin to see that this game isn't a disconnected infinite grab bag of "what do I do here" questions, but rather just a few principles, once mastered, that answer most questions one could reasonably ask, especially of these endgame situations.

eastbay

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Irieguy had some veiled thoughts on this hand related to the "psychology" of both the big stack and the small stack as well as general philosophy of playing for first and contemplation of stack sizes, etc. on/near the bubble. My question in this hand is about the level/precision of math that folks like Eastbay do in the heat of battle.

Eastbay pointed out that having a general understanding of certain concepts surrounding end-game/bubble play is really all that is necessary to allow for proper thought process for hands like this- his thoughts are generally math based.

So, Eastbay (or Irieguy), help me understand the level of math you perform during the heat of the battle. Without getting into excessive detail, my thoughts surrounding this hand would be as follows during the 20 seconds I have to make a decision:

1.) Big stack's position has a signficant impact on folding equity for me on the bubble (and ITM). The current stack sizes, stack positions, etc. tells me that I do NOT have a very favorable Folding Equity situation that I need to preserve/protect. This somewhat alters situations where I should call rather than fold, etc.

2.) If I lose 500 chips here, my FE decreases, but I still have a stack that could induce folds when I push the next few hands.

3.) Small stack is likely pushing with a wide range of hands here. I am probably 50/50 vs. small stack's range of hands.

4.) Rough math assuming 50/50: If I push and win I profit T800 (SB, BB, and small stack's push = 800 in the pot when I make a decision). If I push and lose ( assume BB will fold if I push for simplicity ) I lose T400. This means 50% x 800 + 50% x (400) = T200 +CEV.

5.) FE implications and a rough/dirty EV calc tells me that this is a push.

I am not capable of any more detailed math than this during the heat of battle. Eastbay/Irieguy- are you doing more math during the game than this or are you relying on your past knowledge of these situations to make your decisions. Also, please help me to clarify my thinking here if there are other thoughts/processes you go through in evaluating this situation.

thanks,
-EV

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

So, Eastbay (or Irieguy), help me understand the level of math you perform during the heat of the battle. Without getting into excessive detail, my thoughts surrounding this hand would be as follows during the 20 seconds I have to make a decision:

1.) Big stack's position has a signficant impact on folding equity for me on the bubble (and ITM). The current stack sizes, stack positions, etc. tells me that I do NOT have a very favorable Folding Equity situation that I need to preserve/protect. This somewhat alters situations where I should call rather than fold, etc.

2.) If I lose 500 chips here, my FE decreases, but I still have a stack that could induce folds when I push the next few hands.

3.) Small stack is likely pushing with a wide range of hands here. I am probably 50/50 vs. small stack's range of hands.

4.) Rough math assuming 50/50: If I push and win I profit T800 (SB, BB, and small stack's push = 800 in the pot when I make a decision). If I push and lose ( assume BB will fold if I push for simplicity ) I lose T400. This means 50% x 800 + 50% x (400) = T200 +CEV.

5.) FE implications and a rough/dirty EV calc tells me that this is a push.

I am not capable of any more detailed math than this during the heat of battle. Eastbay/Irieguy- are you doing more math during the game than this or are you relying on your past knowledge of these situations to make your decisions. Also, please help me to clarify my thinking here if there are other thoughts/processes you go through in evaluating this situation.

thanks,
-EV

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Dammit Jim, I'm a poker player, not a mathematician.

That looks like way more "calculating" than could ever be helpful to me... and I think enough of your assumptions are wrong enough to render the whole exercise useless, if not harmful. Specifically the part "assume the BB will fold, for simplicity's sake." Well, I'm sure you understand that if you can assume that will happen... there isn't much math that needs to be done.

The only math I do at the table is figuring pot odds, counting outs in omaha, and quickly figuring the likelihood of specific hands based on a reasonable calling range. This last process is probably not commonly used, but I learned it from the "a little maths" columns on pokerpages by that dude, Samuels or something... and it helps me a lot.

What you are really doing when you are "caculating at the table" or "getting a read," is simply applying pattern recognition. Once you've played a million hands of poker and thought about them all, you will start to notice repeat situations. You will recognize these situations and be better equiped to analyze them in real time thanks to all of the thinking you've done about the situation during other times.

Somebody like Eastbay has such an intuitive feel for probabilities that his pattern recognition will involve not only various poker situations, but also various numeric patterns. He is likely to be able to "feel" when he's ahead and by how far more because the situation appears in his mind as a numbers game. Given the same situation I may "feel" that I'm ahead and by how far because I can instinctively weight how likely a certain human behavior may be under the circumstances. The answer will be the same, and its correctness is ultimately explained mathematically. Even if I say the answer was derived from psychological insight. As Eastbay alluded, everything can be an equation if you define your variables well enough.

Irieguy

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for your thoughts. Math at the table consisting of general pot odds consideration makes sense and is in-line with what I'd consider reasonable/feasible.

More importantly:
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That looks like way more "calculating" than could ever be helpful to me... and I think enough of your assumptions are wrong enough to render the whole exercise useless, if not harmful. Specifically the part "assume the BB will fold, for simplicity's sake."

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My question was related to the level of math done at the table during the hand. Saying "assume BB will fold for simplicity" is poorly stated I agree. In assessing this situation though, I think BB would fold in a $22 SnG to a SB push enough that his/her impact could be excluded from the quick math analysis that I would do at the table. I would guess the BB would fold to the incremental 1225 chips unless he had a very strong hand. I recognize that BB would be getting 1.8:1 on a call here, but I still believe that a general $22 player folds in this situation the vast majority of the time. So... my thought process would have me evaluate the rough probablility of winning vs. the pot assuming BB would fold.

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Well, I'm sure you understand that if you can assume that will happen... there isn't much math that needs to be done.

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Thinking through the simple/quick math related to the pot odds and expected win % if you KNOW the BB will fold is still important IMO. There are plenty of poor folds that are made when the math is even more simple than this.

Please let me know what other assumptions you view as wrong and help me clarify my thinking here.

thanks,
-EV

[gehrig]

if you have a situation like this where you're not sure, take your best guess during the tournament and then after it download poker stove and bookmark http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICMold.html and do the math. the more problems like this you do, the stronger your instinctive grasp of what to do in future situations will be.

fwiw:

range of hands for the button: any pair, any ace, any king, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, T9, 87, 76
calling range for the BB if you fold: any two

BB wins that 40.5% of the time

if the bb wins your prize pool equity is .275
if the button wins your equity is .202
equity if you fold is .232

calling range for BB if you push: AK-AJ, AA-99. he folds 94% of the time

you win 53.6% of the time the BB folds

if he calls, you win 25.9%, the button wins 23.5% and the BB wins 50.6%. 16% of the time the button will win and the BB will have you beat, busting you in 4th. 7.5% of the time you'll lose to the BB but win the sidepot.

so if you push:

(50.4%) you win heads up: .311 equity
(43.6%) you lose heads up: .157 equity
(3%) bb busts you both: .200 equity
(1.6%) you win a three way pot: .360 equity
(.9%) you bust: .000 equity
(.45%) lose to the button, win sidepot: .241 equity
push equity: .238.

folding costs you $1.2

[eastbay]

I'm not going to examine your assumptions here, just make some general follow-up comments about "doing the math" that I sometimes make in posts.

First, no, I don't sit there at the table with a calculator or a computer program and analyze hands I'm playing in. That's not how you "do the math."

You do the math away from the table, and as you play with various assumptions, various ranges of hands, various tendencies of the other players as to what they might do, and why, and, if you do this enough, you being to internalize the results. You develop a feel for it that can be applied on a gut level during an actual game.

This is something like how an instrumentalist develops his craft. When he's playing a song or better yet an improvised solo, he's not thinking scales, or fingerings, or technique. He's feeling the music. However, he is able to do this precisely because he has internalized through systematic practice all of the scales, chords, keys, and techniques such that they eventually come effortlessly by instinct. This is what you should strive for at the table.

IMO, you will achieve the best results with both kinds of practice: away from the table systematic number crunching, and at the table from-the-gut application and practice.

eastbay

[NegativeEV]

Thanks for your thoughts here. Understanding this thought process as you, Gehrig, and Irie explained is very helpful.

I struggle somewhat with the level of math that is possible/necessary/useful while at the table in the heat of battle. The assumptions that must be made for such quick & dirty math during the game can not be very precise given your time frame. This leads me to make quick assumptions such as "BB will likely fold- thus exclude his impact from my quick calc" and "raiser's likely hands put me at roughly 50/50" to allow for quick math at the table.

These rough math calc's are useful I believe, but not nearly as important as being able to draw on previous experience and previous "full analysis" math/EV driven review of historical hands.

I was curious as to the level of precision you have when making "on-the-fly" calculations at the table and your thoughts are very helpful. As with most things, it appears that the homework after the fact is the best way to prepare for the future.

thanks,
-EV

[El Maximo]

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IMO, you will achieve the best results with both kinds of practice: away from the table systematic number crunching, and at the table from-the-gut application and practice.

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I approached the icm and push ev calculations in similiar way. I did a ton of number crunching away from the table. This allowed me to get a general idea of the strength of hands in certain situations and against certain types of players. Now Im learning how to take that basic info and adapt it to game time situations. This is more difficult and experience and these boards is helping. I suggest that you crunch numbers for a few days if you havent done this already. I ran a SB and Button push ev spreadsheet for every hand against 3 different ranges of calling standards from 5bb-10bb. Was mind-numbingly boring but helpful.