BB Special: call an all-in w/o the nuts?

[BullChip]

Stars 1/2

Not many reads. Just sat down folding an orbit or two.

Seat 1: ($179.45 in chips)
Seat 2: ($213.60 in chips)
Seat 3: ($601.25 in chips)
Seat 4: ($173 in chips)
Seat 5: ($367.55 in chips)
Seat 6: ($320.25 in chips)
villain: ($260.80 in chips)
Seat 8: ($92.90 in chips)
Hero ($200 in chips)
seat 8: posts small blind $1
hero: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [6h 8c]
seat 1: folds
seat 1 leaves the table
seat 2: calls $2
seat 3: calls $2
seat 4: folds
seat 5: folds
seat 6: folds
villain: calls $2
seat 8: calls $1
hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [Td 9h 5c]
seat 8: checks
hero: checks
seat 2: checks
seat 3: checks
villain: checks
*** TURN *** [Td 9h 5c] [7h]
seat 8: checks
hero: bets $10
smellyslider: folds
seat 3: calls $10
villain: raises $248.80 to $258.80 and is all-in
seat 8: folds

Hero ??? <font color="black"> </font> <font color="red"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="red"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="red"> </font> <font color="red"> </font> <font color="black"> </font> <font color="black"> </font>

[schwza]

well, i usually play 6max 50x stacks, but i can't see folding the second nut here.

[krazyace5]

I fold he could have J8 or the flush. Looks like he might be trying to protect against the flush so I will go with J8 or maybe even the same hand as you.

[BullChip]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold he could have J8 or the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

J8 possible. Flush not.

[BradleyT]

Why would he bet 10x the pot? The only logical hand I can see him doing that with is the same hand as you.

With only $12 of your own money in the pot I'd say "nh sir" and wait for a better opportunity.

[Pokerho]

He could also have 77, or maybe the 7 gave him 2 pair, or maybe he had a 10 w/ a bad kicker, and is now confident that he has top pair, but is scared of drawing hands. He could have slowplayed ANYTHING. People love to bet big like that when they will only be called by hands that beat them. I would almost certainly call.

[Tilt]

Calling this without reads is not smart.

[DBowling]

I was also thinking this looks like a chop situation, where you might want to just wait for a better opportunity.
On the other hand, he could be semibluffing with a hand like Ah8h or T8. He could, as others mentioned, have a set or two pair. Lastly, he could have 8h6h or J8. But I think you go ahead and call this, expecting to chop most of the time, and being ahead most of the rest of the time.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
He could also have 77, or maybe the 7 gave him 2 pair, or maybe he had a 10 w/ a bad kicker, and is now confident that he has top pair, but is scared of drawing hands. He could have slowplayed ANYTHING. People love to bet big like that when they will only be called by hands that beat them. I would almost certainly call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scared of what? He only has $2 in an unraised pot.

If people at $1/$2 protect $2 invested into the pot with $248 without the nuts I need to move up immediately.

[ohkanada]

These are such tough situations. His raise makes no sense no matter what he has. If he has the nuts, his raise is silly because he could make a raise such that sets or flush draws do not have the correct pot odds to call. Certainly any 1 or 2 pair hands is mucking where they might call a reasonable raise.

If he doesn't have the nuts he is risking that someone else has it or that someone figures he is full of crap and calls with a set or smaller straight.

I probably fold but I think quite often you are tied. If I did fold I would be watching this player more careful than normal.

Ken

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would he bet 10x the pot? The only logical hand I can see him doing that with is the same hand as you.

With only $12 of your own money in the pot I'd say "nh sir" and wait for a better opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's money in the pot is a sunk cost, and therefore, should not be factored into any future decisions.

2003 US Open Poker Championships: "Toto... Why would you bet so much? I call."

Yeah, I call. If he's clever enough to play J8/overbet when I have the 2nd nuts, I rebuy.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero's money in the pot is a sunk cost, and therefore, should not be factored into any future decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero had 80% of his chips in - that should not be considered?

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's money in the pot is a sunk cost, and therefore, should not be factored into any future decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero had 80% of his chips in - that should not be considered?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not the fact that 80% of his chips are in, but rather the pot odds he is getting to call off the remaining 20%. So really you should say "theres not much in the pot" rather than "you only have XX of your money in the pot". Because hes right, who's money is in the pot doesnt matter, because its no longer theirs.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's money in the pot is a sunk cost, and therefore, should not be factored into any future decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero had 80% of his chips in - that should not be considered?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bradley,

No, the fact that "80% of Hero's chips are committed" shouldn't bare any relevance to whether he should or should not hypothetically commit his chips.

What SHOULD be considered when 80% of your chips are committed is you're often getting like 20:180 (9:1!) and probably even more on any call, so it makes a universal rule of "you're pot committed when 50%+ of your chips are in," only true due to the immense odds you are NOW getting on a call.

Hope this clears it up.

[BigF]

I was gonna say "call" but now I changed my mind. I don't know.

I can see a tricky player with J8 making that move. Board wasn't scary. no action on the flop. Didn't seem like his nuts would get paid off had he followed a normal line. Why not push with hidden nuts and make a thinking player talk himself into calling the "all-in-bluff".

[BigF]

How much you have invested in the pot shouldn't in any way affect your decisions.

I didn't say that. Mike Caro did.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
How much you have invested in the pot shouldn't in any way affect your decisions.

I didn't say that. Mike Caro did.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's also introductory econ

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
How much you have invested in the pot shouldn't in any way affect your decisions.

I didn't say that. Mike Caro did.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I read that last night in SS2.

But how much you have invested directly corelates to the odds you're getting. As the amount you contributed to the pot approaches 100% of your stack - your odds to call start to reach infinity. As the amount you contributed reaches 0, the odds you get approach even money.

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
But how much you have invested directly corelates to the odds you're getting. As the amount you contributed to the pot approaches 100% of your stack - your odds to call start to reach infinity. As the amount you contributed reaches 0, the odds you get approach even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem is stating it this way never gives you a complete picture, because if the pot is 5 handed or heads up, the odds you are getting are much different. And even heads up on later streets, it ignores money invested by other players on previous streets.

[BigF]

lol I did get that from SS2. I prefer the straightforward thinking i.e. how much I have left behind vs how much is in the pot over the mind boggling "I have invested 10%, there are three players including me. therefore the pot is little over 30% * stack and now I have 90% * stack. therefore....".

[el kang]

Without a read this is a easy laydown.

When in doubt, and there is not much in the pot ($30 before the bet), it is an easy fold.

In defense of this play, I sometimes make plays like this in live play when I have the nuts, because enough times I get called by a lesser hand or even the flush draw (!!), and the advertising value in showdown is great. I say it is likely he is protecting against the flush or straight draw with his made straight. I'm more inclined to believe that he had J8 instead of 68 like you. I put chances of a set or TPTK as very low.

[Burno]

Has no one mentioned 68h? Villain could easily be tied with hero freerolling the flush draw. It's one of the few things that make sense given his absurd overbet in an unraised pot.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think 68h is definitely the most likely hand, assuming that his play makes sense. It gives horrible odds to a slowplayed set or two pair, even if someone has the nuts, he has plenty of outs to split or win and if no one has the nuts, then he is at least free-rolling. In addition, even if everyone folds, it makes him look like maniac so he gets more action on future hands. However, this being online poker I say that his move only makes sense ~20% of the time. ~80% of the time, you are ahead of some weird hand played by some weird guy.

[Snag]

I really think you have to lay this down. You could be looking at a poorly played flush, or a very overzealous protection of a higher straight.

Granted, you could also be looking at a set, the same hand you have, or even two pair, but it's doubtful.

Lay it down, and wait for the nuts to get all your money in against this clown.

[TheWorstPlayer]

There is no flush possible on this board. And if this guy really IS a clown, then you are not going to have a chance to bust him if you wait for the nuts. You have the SECOND nuts here. Surely that has to be enough to bust a random guy on the internet who massively overbets the pot. Just the fact that he makes that bet says to me that he is not a good player and therefore I stick with my assessment that OP is ahead here 80% of the time and should call. It is most likely free money. Take it.

[gazarsgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Scared of what? He only has $2 in an unraised pot.

If people at $1/$2 protect $2 invested into the pot with $248 without the nuts I need to move up immediately.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you only call allins with the nuts, stay where you are, because you will get run down.

If you had KK and the board was uncoordinated would you fold here?

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
These are such tough situations. His raise makes no sense no matter what he has. If he has the nuts, his raise is silly because he could make a raise such that sets or flush draws do not have the correct pot odds to call. Certainly any 1 or 2 pair hands is mucking where they might call a reasonable raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when in the existence of small stakes no-limit poker will players in general even *think* about proper odds? Many nut flush draw players won't fold, and even two pair or set guys will often call hoping to fill up or even think they are ahead.

This hand is definitely harder than it looks on surface, but with no read this is what I can gather:

(1) This opponent is definitely not a good player.
(2) He does not necessarily have the nuts. In fact, I think there's a better chance he has something like a slowplayed set or two pair than the nuts.

I would call and live with the results, but even if some situation dictated I fold, I would definitely watch this guy like an eagle.

Garland

[Hold em 888]

I call. It seems too rare of an occurance for someone on $1-2 to make such an aggressive move at the pot when they actually have the nuts. Seems much more likely that he has a set and is praying for a 2-pair to call him. To me, folding here is like folding 67s to a flop of 89Ts against a similarly aggressive bet. If you have a losing hand at this point, I think you have no choice but to pay off a J-hi straight. But, then again, I tend to gamble more than my opponents, so if you cannot make this call, there's no shame in waiting for the absolute nuts. Just be sure not to hold your breath.

PS- did you consider the fact that this may be a desparado holding JJ/QQ/KK/AA? This is a rather unlikely situation, but I'm sure we've all been guilty of trying to protect an overpair by making a ridiculously large bet at sometime in our career. If your opponent has lost a few pots in the last couple orbits, you have to consider that he may be making a tilt move of this nature. This is not an instinctual feeling you can rely on too often, but you will occasionally catch a man making a move like this.

Hold em 888

[SlyAK]

And I say CALL!!! EASY call actually. He could very easily have 2 pair, a set, a pair+ straight draw, etc. I think your chances of being behind are less than 10%, there is a chance of a tie, and a high chance that you are ahead. Folding here is criminal. If he does have you beaten then "nh sir" and reload.

Sly

[edge]

I call. This is Crypto 1/2. Most players are idiots. I'd expect to see something dumb like two pair here.

[Smoove]

Add another to the call bandwagon

[Burno]

I think this was stars.

If this was crypto, I doubt a discussion would even be necessary.