AA vs, TAAG

[shant]

I really didn't feel like there was anywhere in this hand that I could've slowed down, other than maybe check-calling the river?

Villain is 15/7 TAG I play against frequently, may be a 2+2er.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

[cockandbull]

the only hand i really see you losing to is JT. well played.

[elindauer]

Hi shant,

First of all, check-calling the river would be insanity. Villain did not cap the turn, by all accounts you are ahead and must bet the river.

Clearly, folding the river is out of the question. Now we ask, call or 3-bet?

What can villain have? Well, it looks like he thinks his hand is good despite your action, but decided to wait until the river to raise again in the hopes of saving some money should 4th spade hit the board. What kinds of hands are these?

straights.
sets.
smaller flushes.

You're not too likely to be capped if you reraise, as you have bet at every opportunity and your opponent must be slightly concerned that you hold the nut flush. Still, you must think you're good, say, 65% of the time to 3-bet and are called. Is your hand that good?

I don't think so. Note in particular that villain did not raise preflop, so we must discount sets even further. Just call.


Good luck.
Eric

[bdk3clash]

Good hand-reading re: what hand waits for a non-/images/graemlins/spade.gif river to fall.

However, I disagree with this bit:

"Still, you must think you're good, say, 65% of the time to 3-bet and are called. Is your hand that good?"

You're giving the portion of the time (two-thirds) your hand must be good to 3-bet and call a cap.

Since your opponent cannot hold the nuts in this hand with you holding the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, he's less likely to cap your 3-bet with hands he has that beat you. He should (rightly) fear A/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif or A/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif if/when you 3-bet.

I'm not yet convinced your set is no good vs. the combination of hands your opponent could coneivably play this way, so I think a river 3-bet has value, especially given that you probably won't get 4-bet by better (but non-nut) hands.

[spydog]

The only hand you beat that Villian might play this way is 66. I think he raises KK or QQ preflop.

I don't like 3-betting this river because I think I'm behind after his raise. Value 3-betting seems insane to me.

So what if he doesn't cap his straight or flush? You still lose 1 bet by 3-betting, while saving a bet when just calling his raise.

[BigDan9]

If the villain is truly a TAG, I think you've got to conclude that you've either won against AQ (I assume he would have raised with AK, although I don't know whether he's the sort of player who would call your flop bet with AQ) or lost to JT. Surely the only flush hands a TAG could have in that spot would be JTs, T9s or 89s, or 78s, which seem statistically unlikely.

Still, there are clearly hands there that could beat you and his decision not to cap the turn may have been a tricky play designed to encourage your river bet. I think calling the that final raise was the right move.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
If the villain is truly a TAG, I think you've got to conclude that you've either won against AQ (I assume he would have raised with AK, although I don't know whether he's the sort of player who would call your flop bet with AQ) or lost to JT. Surely the only flush hands a TAG could have in that spot would be JTs, T9s or 89s, or 78s, which seem statistically unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why this hand was odd to me. Villain is a well known TAG on Party, has been mentioned in posts about 2/4 players to avoid, etc.

Results and thoughts in white:
<font color="white">When he only called the 3-bet and then raised the non-spade river, it felt like he had a lower flush, but I still couldn't figure out what he'd limp with.

Villain flipped Js9s for the flopped flush.</font>

[sfer]

How many hands were your stats? I don't believe a true 15/7 is openlimping J9s in MP.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands were your stats? I don't believe a true 15/7 is openlimping J9s in MP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only have about 15k hands total since I installed PokerTracker, but I have hundreds with this player. Do you play 2/4? If you do, I can PM you his Party name, it's one you'd recognize as he is a multi-tabling TAG and I run into him frequently.

The open-limp with that hand confused me as well. He left the table right after the hand ended, so maybe it was a last hand at the table type limp?

[me454555]

Sets would have played this flop quickly and QQ or KK probobly would have reraised. I don't think this is a case of MP1 feeling scard and being afraid to raise the flop and waiting for the turn. The villian has a lot of outs if he's got a set and would probobly play this fast. This is especially given the read of your opponent as a tag.

Look at the pf play and the flop play, seems like a medium strenth hand on some sort of draw. Given that you have the As and the Q and K are out, I'm going to rule out the flush b/c he didn't raise the flop and he would probobly play it quickly if he's got a low flush.

I think his most likely hand is a JT b/c he limped pf, was willing to go to war on the turn w/a 3 flush on the board and still raised the river on you when a blank fell.

I think you played the hand perfectly

[sfer]

Fair enough. My 2/4 database is about 10 months old now and from the days before data mining, if you can believe it, so I probably won't recognize him. Given his VPIP and PFR, I would have put him exactly on 66 and gotten ramjammed on the river. The danger of stats. Or something.