Bubble play or bubble fold?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2500)
Button <font color="#A500AF">(About 2 Go Out)</font> (t500)
Hero (t1425)
BB (t3575)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button <font color="#A500AF">(About 2 Go Out)</font> raises to t500 (All-In)</font>,
Hero...

[MrMon]

Fold. You don't have much wiggle room. Let one of the big stacks take him out.

[PoBoy321]

Fold. Let the BB deal with him.

[eastbay]

Do the math, Scuba. Give a man a fish...

eastbay

[Scuba Chuck]

Thanks. Did the math right on this one then.

[Irieguy]

This isn't a math problem, it's a psychology problem. The OP asks what you should do and the reply is... all together now:

"let the big stack take him out!"

The big stack doesn't want to take him out. The difference between the big stack and the other monkeys is that he doesn't much care if the short stack busts. In fact.... never mind.

How about some short stack psychology:

"500 chips, I'm screwed. Who cares, this is all bs anyways. PartyPoker is rigged and this is a joke. I'm all in."

The big stack isn't playing unless he's huge. Even if he does, you'd have to get third in the hand to get 4th place. And you are ahead of the short stack in all likelihood.

The line between a raptorial and a temerarious competitor is a fine one. There are a lot of ways to get 3rd in a SNG... but first has to be seized.

Irieguy

[bigredlemon]

Considerations:

BB might have crap and will double shortstack up 2/3rd of time

If you push and lose, you will almost triple up shortstack, and be even money with him.

You will only finish OTM if a big stack calls, and BOTH short stack AND big stack beats you.

If you beat big stack but lose to small stack, you will still have a playable amount of chips, while the big stack and small stack will be where you were, and basically everyone will be close in chips.

If big stack calls and you beat everyone, you will be first in chips, with a former big stack on the ropes.

If a big stack calls your push, you are probably behind.

[ilya]

Poo shhhhh

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
The line between a raptorial (http://www.yourdictionary.com/ahd/r/r0046500.html) and a temerarious (http://www.yourdictionary.com/ahd/t/t0096600.html) competitor is a fine one.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're going to need to post links to the definitions like 'Zen does.

[Scuba Chuck]

lol, thanks for the dictionary bytes.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a math problem, it's a psychology problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly the estimates needed for inputs to the math problem require some "psychology". But that doesn't take away the need to do the math once the inputs are estimated.

In this case it may be that the answer is dominated by those estimates - those are the interesting poker problems. But I'm quite certain Scuba doesn't even know how to approach it, otherwise he wouldn't be asking these questions. So I'm trying to get him to ask the right questions, so that he can begin to see that this game isn't a disconnected infinite grab bag of "what do I do here" questions, but rather just a few principles, once mastered, that answer most questions one could reasonably ask, especially of these endgame situations.

eastbay

[two_dogs]

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm trying to get him to ask the right questions, so that he can begin to see that this game isn't a disconnected infinite grab bag of "what do I do here" questions, but rather just a few principles, once mastered, that answer most questions one could reasonably ask, especially of these endgame situations.


[/ QUOTE ]
Would you please expound on this as I don't know the questions either and would like to.
What I do know is that for it to be +EV you would need to be a big favorite and KQoff is a dog to any pair and a bigger dog to any ace so you are probably not a favorite here coupled with the BB who has a big stack still to act I fold.

I would and I'm sure other newbies would appreciate your counsel on this.

Thanks

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a math problem, it's a psychology problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly the estimates needed for inputs to the math problem require some "psychology". But that doesn't take away the need to do the math once the inputs are estimated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. It's important to realize how your inputs may be influenced by the circumstances. Doing the math and analyzing the psychology of the situation are not mutually exclusive approaches to a poker problem.

[ QUOTE ]

In this case it may be that the answer is dominated by those estimates - those are the interesting poker problems. But I'm quite certain Scuba doesn't even know how to approach it, otherwise he wouldn't be asking these questions. So I'm trying to get him to ask the right questions, so that he can begin to see that this game isn't a disconnected infinite grab bag of "what do I do here" questions, but rather just a few principles, once mastered, that answer most questions one could reasonably ask, especially of these endgame situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of the most eloquent and insightful comments I've ever seen (about poker, that is.)

Irieguy

[Ship_it_tome]

hmmm..... what would gigas brother do??

I hate to make all of you better players here, but oh well, this one is easy. For one , if i am big stack in that spot i fold to small stack to steal some more blinds from the average stacks to deplete them and give me an easy first place finish.

With that information, this is the easiest push in the book, i would push with J8 or better. I will either get 4th or give myself a chance to steal more blinds. One of my favorite things to do is push against a big stack, if i know he is not a calling station. There is no reason to risk his stack with marginal cards. I wonder if gig would do the same?????????? He taught me a few tricks also.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

I just started playing S&amp;Gs again recently, but I don't fold this. The question is whether to reraise or just call.

The small stack could have anything. He knows that the next blinds will destroy him. He needs to push this hand or the next.

However, I don't want the big stack in the BB calling me. If I just call, he frequently calls. Therefore, I lean towards pushing now and looking to isolate the little guy.

On the math issue: KQo beats a random hand and I am getting 2 to 1. I can't put my opponent on anything other than a random hand.

[ericlambi]

Push. The Button could have anything, you probably have the best hand. If the big stack calls, he probably has a monster, will take both of you out, and at least you'll have a decent consolation prize. If you don't get called and you lose, you're still in a better position than the small stack. If you push and win, you increased your chances of 1st fivefold.

[Mr_J]

I'm a newbie too but here's my thinking:

Buttons range of hands will be loose. He'll push here with any half decent cards.

He's in position. Next turn he'll act with 3 to follow, which means 1 more player that might call him. If he doesn't get anything next turn, he's in the BB.

Unless BB has been stealing from shortstacks previously, I wouldn't rely on him doing it here. As Irieguy pointed out, it's in the BBs best interest to keep the shortstack alive. Makes it easier for him to steal from you.

Folding doesn't even come close to making sure you place. Shortstack is probally more likely to double up vs BB (if he even calls) than he would vs you. If he doubles up, then he's even with you. If blinds are just folded to him, he's still a good threat.

Calling and doubling up would also put you in an even race for 2nd, and enough to have a good shot at first.

Not sure if I got all my thoughts down.

I'd put his range of hands as at least down to Qx,and easily could jsut be any 2.

Way in front of Kx or worse, slightly behind low PP and not far from JJ and lower.

I think you're in front more than 50% of the time, and the pot odds are obviously good.

[Scuba Chuck]

Irieguy and Eastbay, Thank you.

Eastbay, the reason I haven't responded about the math is that I don't know how just yet. I've read enough to understand conceptually, but couldn't go to the chalk board in front of the class with any success. Just yesterday I began reading TPFAP, so hopefully I'll be at the chalkboard soon.

FWIW, I did fold, and the BB did take out small stack. So that fold is a +EV play for me - I think, lol.

[Scuba Chuck]

Or negative EV, keep ya guessing - Thanks tho.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2500)
Button <font color="#A500AF">(About 2 Go Out)</font> (t500)
Hero (t1425)
BB (t3575)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button <font color="#A500AF">(About 2 Go Out)</font> raises to t500 (All-In)</font>,
Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a $22 SNG? Has the big stack already folded to a small stack and then gone on a blind stealing tear? Has the big stack been on a blind stealing tear at all?

In $22s I generally will fold this since the BB most likely isn't sophisticated enough to fold with the intent to open push a ton and steal -- most big stacks here will just call with any decent hand and save you the trouble of enduring a coin flip for 3rd.

In a higher buyin or vs. a more sophisticated opp. or someone who I feel will likely fold with the big stack here, I would push.

Yugoslav