Table reading $20+2

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t980)
UTG (t2225)
Hero (t775)
MP1 (t740)
MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(Toolio)</font> (t385)
CO (t795)
Button (t915)
SB (t1185)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, Hero calls t30, MP1 folds, MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(Toolio)</font> calls t30, CO calls t30, Button folds, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (t135) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Toolio bets t30</font>, CO folds, BB folds, Hero calls t30.

Turn: (t195) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Toolio bets t50</font>,

OK, what do you take this second little bet to mean? If I have an ace, I want to protect my hand. To me this means he's betting into a draw.

Any thoughts? What's your next move?


<font color="white">
Hero raises to t200, Toolio calls t150.

River: (t595) J of SPADEs (2 players)
Hero checks, Toolio checks.

Final Pot: t595 </font>

[Insty]

Flop:
Fold the flop, you didn't hit your set, you're out of position, and all kinds of horrible things could still happen. If you're not going to do that and think your 9's are good then Raise the flop. As it is you look like you are on a draw too.

Turn:
If you do either of the above things you don't have this problem. Bet the Turn, you think he is on a draw, so you give him the option of getting a free card? This makes no sense. I'm putting him on a low pair, maybe 'over'cards KJ QJ etc.. You still look like you are drawing.

Now to where the question starts.
If you really want to protect your hand, push all-in right now.
The pot is 245 and he has 275 left. That should be enough that he can get away from the hand, and makes sure he doesn't have the odds to draw.

River:
BET DAMMIT! At least bluff the flush you've been looking like you're drawing to.
You only gave him one opportunity the whole game to lay his cards down!
You really didn't want to win this one did you?

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop:
Fold the flop, you didn't hit your set, you're out of position, and all kinds of horrible things could still happen. If you're not going to do that and think your 9's are good then Raise the flop. As it is you look like you are on a draw too.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree -- your hand is unlikely to improve. You need to raise or fold here. With four or more to the flop, I would usually fold -- someone usually has an Ace. If you are reasonably confident that the bettor doesn't have an Ace, then raise -- you may even get him to lay down a weak Ace.

Calling is bad.

[Mr_Gordon]

[ QUOTE ]
you may even get him to lay down a weak Ace.


[/ QUOTE ]
Not at a $20+2. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Irieguy]

This is a common leak for new players, and the quintessential characteristic of a fish:

The tendency to change your mind about the value of your hand as play progresses:

"pocket 9's, cool, I'll 'play for set value,' whatever that means."

Flop 4s-6-As

"Bummer, no set. I'll check/fold. Wait a second, folding sucks and this guy probably doesn't have an ace."

Turn 8h

"Damn, still no set. I'll check."

Opp. bets 50.

"50? There has to be some way for me to interpret that bet such that I don't have to fold. Let's see, pot odds? Implied odds? No.... I got it! He's bluffing! I hate to fold, but he'll probably fold if I make a little safe raise here."

Opponent calls. You barely notice river because you are so bummed about this hand.

"fine, I'll check and fold... or maybe call... I'll decide in a minute."

There's also a much more straightforward way to understand all the mistakes on this hand:

You invested 250 of your 775 stack to play a pair of nines out of position in level 2.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

Insty, I really think you are talking to the "inner me."

Especially the river comments.

Turn comments: Can you talk more as to why...
you think he is on a draw, so you give him the option of getting a free card? This makes no sense. I'm putting him on a low pair, maybe 'over'cards KJ QJ etc

[Scuba Chuck]

Irieguy, let me see if I can interpret your comments precisely.

Regardless of whether I think this guy is 'bluffing', I should fold because:
1) I don't know how to play this situation - obviously
2) It's not worth it. Wait for a time where you can have confidence in your hand, and exploit their mistakes?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Irieguy, let me see if I can interpret your comments precisely.

Regardless of whether I think this guy is 'bluffing', I should fold because:
1) I don't know how to play this situation - obviously
2) It's not worth it. Wait for a time where you can have confidence in your hand, and exploit their mistakes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactamundo.

[The Yugoslavian]

Scuba,

Preflop: Looks good to me.

Flop: Ummm, why are you calling and what are your thoughts here? You're playing at the $22 level so chances are one of those guys seeing the flop has Ax. If the hand could be shown down right here then you probably have good enough odds to call and make this +CEV. However, the hand does not end here and your reverse implied odds or *horrible*. You very likely have only 2 outs. And even if you're not up against Ax, your opponent very easily has overcards to your nines anyway and you're not much of a favorite.

Turn: What does the 50 chip bet mean? It means you should fold b/c this pot isn't worth going after (you're not going to get better hands to lay down and you're very likely beaten already).
River: check/fold looks good unless it is a very small bet to you (would you fold to any bet here?)

I think you're hemmoraging chips with 99 here. I've seen you play the bubble/short-handed and you certainly have enough of an edge over fish there to lay off overthinking early level hands like this and being too tricky.

One other thing worth mentioning is that you're early in the SNG and should have much better opportunities later. The $EV you can gain from a squence like this is small compared to the FE and thus future $EV you lose due to lost chips. With a set, you can go for the double up but with an underpair the best you can hope for is winning a medium pot or very likely losing a medium pot (wrecking your future FE).

Yugoslav

[ericlambi]

I think it means he is a super-weak tight player with an ace in his hand.