900,000 to 1?

[CanIPlay]

See if this is close to correct?
Flop of JJJ, 4000 to 1
Me having a pair 7 or higher 32-1
Last jack dealt to 1 of 9 other players 2.4-1
that Jack not being folded to a raise and a re-raise 3-1
This hand I had K-K re-raised someone calls with J-10s. What are the odds for these events?

Less than 300 hands later flop is JJ6, turn is J, what are odds of 3 out of 4? I have 9-9, preflop raiser had Q-J.

[gaming_mouse]

Flop of JJJ, 4000 to 1

No. 4/(50 choose 3) -- given that you have no J -- or 1 in 4900

Me having a pair 7 or higher 32-1

No. (6*8)/(52 choose 2), or 1 in 27.62. Strange that you seem to be getting close, but not exact answers.

Last jack dealt to 1 of 9 other players 2.4-1

No. 47 cards left, 1 J left. (46 choose 18)/(47 choose 18), or 1 in 1.62.

that Jack not being folded to a raise and a re-raise 3-1.This hand I had K-K re-raised someone calls with J-10s.

this depends on the player. we need more assumptions for this. but i guess you can ask, what percent of party players call 3 cold with TJs? I think 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 is a good guess.

However, you are asking the wrong question. This is not all that bad of a beat. Once the flop comes (despite the fact that it is a rare flop), the chance that you are beat is only the chance that one of your oppos has the remaining J. This is not so high. And this is really the number that measures how bad your beat was, not the chance of all those events occuring.

HTH,
gm

[Gebre]

[ QUOTE ]

Last jack dealt to 1 of 9 other players 2.4-1

No. 47 cards left, 1 J left. (46 choose 18)/(47 choose 18), or 1 in 1.62.



[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be (46 choose 17)/(47 choose 18), or 1 in 2.61?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Last jack dealt to 1 of 9 other players 2.4-1

No. 47 cards left, 1 J left. (46 choose 18)/(47 choose 18), or 1 in 1.62.



[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be (46 choose 17)/(47 choose 18), or 1 in 2.61?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I meant to write:

1-(46 choose 18)/(47 choose 18)=.383, or 1 in 2.61

I forgot the "1-" for some reason.

Nice catch,
gm