View Full Version : push or fold under 10 bb's rule
schwza
01-24-2005, 05:56 PM
i know this is generally a good idea, but do you still apply it in cases where there are bubble considerations? e.g., this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1599342&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) ?
i'm worried about 1) making it too likely i'll go broke or 2) not stealing enough.
doing stuff like raising to 2.25x bb and folding to a push when you have 7.5x in stack seems like a good way to keep stealing but avoid busting.
El Maximo
01-24-2005, 06:05 PM
I archive the truelly great posts and this is one of them. I cant remember off hand who wrote this but I found the article very helpful. I will say that there are some unique bubble situations where I will raise instead of push with less than 10bb. These are few are far between though.
Since I constantly cite the 10xBB rule, I feel obligated to defend it.
Here is what it comes down to for me. Sit and Gos are often not epic confrontations between two premium hands in the later rounds when it all is decided. They are generally 60/40 or closer confrontations, which ultimately decide the outcome.
With 10x the BB or less, you have options I suppose. You could raise the min with steal hands, but I think this stinks. For one, you are inviting people to come over the top with many hands (if you frequently steal this way). If you are the type to min raise with the goods as well, then you are also risking being busted by people who take advantage of the good price you have offered and see a flop from the blinds.
Min raising with big blinds and a 10xbb stack generally means you will steal blinds at a less frequent rate, but also risk less to do so. It also provides the chance for opponents to outplay you on the flop (which you will miss more than not). Frankly, I don't min raise because it always seems to put me in difficult situations. I know that difficult doesn't necessarily mean bad, but I prefer to avoid these kinds of spots.
So if you don't min raise, you are going to be raising 2.5-3xBB with 10Xbb stack. Now the problem arises here. You must raise 2.5-3xbb with all your hands, right? If you raise 2.5x-3bb when u are stealing, and do anything differently when u have the goods, then I think we could agree that this makes no sense. You must keep your opponents off balance.
If you raise 2.5-3bb with a stealing hand, and someone goes over the top for your stack, you are going to fold getting 13:7, or roughly 2:1 (usually 2+:1 because of the presence of blinds). Most stealing hands, on average, are worth this price.
The bottom line is this: If you steal enough using the 10xBB rule (you will have a higher rate of success than using any other method), then more often than not you will be doing enough work to keep your stack growing, or to at least keep it where it is. When you do get called, it won't always be by aces or kings, and it will often be an OK situation, one better than raising to 3xbb and then folding to a reraise.
The issue becomes a lot more clear with 8xBB. It should all be pushing and folding. I suppose 10xbb is kind of arbitrary, and I guess I would agree that maybe 9.5 is a better mark or so, but I really do not think raising less than all-in and folding is going to be a more +EV move than raising all-in to begin with. That is what it comes down to for me.
The 10xBB rule is a little bit of a simplification. I really believe that 9xBB works for me better, but 10x is fine too. The idea is that you can only move all in or fold when you are this shortstacked or if all the people to act after you have less than 9 or 10x BB.
Anyways, so we have this 'rule'. The real trick is deciding what to push, and what to not push. When you have 11xBB, you can afford to fold marginal hands like K8s from the CO, but if you had 6xBB, this fold would be a crime. So obviously as you lose your stack relative to the blinds, you get more desperate.
This is all simple stuff so far. The thing I wanted to say was that I think that most people think that this is a linear regression. So that at 11-14xBB you can afford to fold marginal hands (instead of opening for 3xBB), and at 8-10xBB you get more desperate, and at 6-8xBB you get even more desperate, etc.
I think that at 5-6xBB you should be the most desperate. What exactly this range of hands is, depends. But for the most part, this should be the height of your looseness. Why? Because you have folding equity, but not for long. When the blinds go up, or when you get blinded, or when both happen, you are sure to lose almost all of your folding equity, and you have no chance to survive and build a stack without showdown. If you have less than this, say, 1.5-3xBB, your folding equity is almost gone. You shouldn't be desperate now because you wont be able to make anyone fold with trash hands. So now you should be fairly selective, and worse case scenario just go down with any random two from the BB.
I think raises to 2.5x BB and then folding seems to be a easy way to lose your stack...
simple odds, if u raise to 2.5x BB and have 8x BB u will still be getting 2:1 odds on calling a push, so u hafta call based on odds.... so you would b much better off folding hands which u do not feel comfortable pushing with...
I dont mind getting my money in first w/ 67s against BB's KQo as long as i push first... or even AKo as long as i push first
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 6s 720259 42.06 985515 57.55 6530 0.38 0.423
Ac Kd 985515 57.55 720259 42.06 6530 0.38 0.577
BigDave
01-24-2005, 06:18 PM
Lets assume that the big blinds is 100, you have 750, and you raise 225 on your blind steal. The biggest problem I see is that BB will call more often then if you would have pushed, negating your steal. When BB calls and bets out and/or you do not get a good flop, then I see this as the reason you should push in the first place. If you fail to steal here and have to fold, you next push won't have as much bite to it as this one does.
Irieguy
01-24-2005, 06:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
doing stuff like raising to 2.25x bb and folding to a push when you have 7.5x in stack seems like a good way to keep stealing but avoid busting.
[/ QUOTE ]
Of all the types of SNG players that exist, the ones that will do this are my favorite to play against, by far.
Irieguy
schwza
01-24-2005, 06:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
doing stuff like raising to 2.25x bb and folding to a push when you have 7.5x in stack seems like a good way to keep stealing but avoid busting.
[/ QUOTE ]
Of all the types of SNG players that exist, the ones that will do this are my favorite to play against, by far.
Irieguy
[/ QUOTE ]
thanks for the response. do you more often exploit this by moving in with a marginal hand or by calling and seeing a flop?
Gramps
01-24-2005, 07:33 PM
Ditto. I will come over the top of these types of players with hands that I would not coldcall their push with, because I have a chance to fold out some coinflip hands (say with a lower mid-pair).
For those who make this "raise and fold" play with 7.5 BB, think about it - someone who has you and your 7.5 BB covered comes over the top of you and has a decent shot to pick up 4 BB for free (your raise + blinds). If they're called, they're on average probalby not much worse than 50% to win 8.25 BB for a 7.5 BB investment (assuming they're not pushing total crap).
Because you make this raise and fold a fair % of the time, it's a much bigger +EV play for people to come over the top of you now (which means attentive players will start doing it a lot).
If you push your 7.5 BB, now someone can only win by calling and showing down the best hand to win. That's a much less attractive offer.
Like Amir Vahedi said on the 2003 WSOP telecast, in NL tournies you have to be willing to die in order to live.
Phil Van Sexton
01-24-2005, 08:19 PM
I don't follow the 10xBB rule and the linked post is a great example of why it shouldn't be taken as gospel.
The poster had 2900 with a BB of 400. That's about 7xBB. The SB has 3300 and the BB has 1700. Betting 900 with A6 is a great play against most 10/1 players (I think betting 1000 is slightly better). He wants to avoid a war with the SB, but puts the BB to the test for all his chips. When the SB pushes, this is clear indicator that his A6 is no good. If the SB had folded and the BB pushed, it's an easy call.
The apparent problem is that his fold leaves him with only 5xBB. This seems terrible, but is it? He still has 25% of the chips in play. He still has the 2nd biggest stack. He still has plenty of folding equity, even against the big stack, because 1 double-up will give him the chip lead.
Contrast this with having 5xBB when the BB is 100. Now you have only 500, which is pocket change for the big stacks, and not intimidating to the medium stacks.
Therefore, you shouldn't compute your folding equity simply by counting multiples of the BB. Instead, you should compare your stack to the other stacks and to the BB.
Maybe the 900 bet in the example is basically a min raise, but I doubt the BB considers it "small" or "weak" when it will cost him 50+% of his chips to call.
My "strategy" is to bet the smallest amount possible that will get the BB to fold. If the BB is Irieguy or ZeeJustin, this amount is likely to be equal to my entire stack. The original post was about 10/1 where you will rarely see these types of players.
Remember when you see advice from great players like Strassa, they are playing against more aggressive opponents, and there are more chips in play (since the higher tournament start with 1000). Because of this, small raises to 400 or 600 do not get the job done, and therefore pushing is usually the correct play. At 30/3 and below, this is not necessarily the case.
That's probably a separate discussion. My main point is: sizing raises based on the 10xBB rule is not correct. Just like any "system", it's decent for beginners and often comes up with the correct decision by accident, but I think your results will improve if you take more factors into account than the amount of BBs you have left.
ChrisV
01-24-2005, 08:27 PM
It depends a lot on position and stack size.
To exploit weak raises by calling I want (1) position on the raiser (which basically means he's SB and I'm BB) and (2) a stack size which will allow me some flexibility on the flop. It's essential postflop that I have enough to make him fold should he bet out a small-medium amount.
When out of position or with a smaller stack size, the only way to exploit the raise is to go over the top straightaway.
ChrisV
01-24-2005, 08:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
When the SB pushes, this is clear indicator that his A6 is no good.
[/ QUOTE ]
My push range here is approximately any pair, any ace, KQ-KT, QJ-QT. A6o against this range of hands according to Pokerstove has 42.82% equity.
Raising 1000 and then folding leaves you with 1900. Raising 1000 and calling my push gives a pot of 6200, so your equity is 2655 chips. Your play loses 755 chips compared to raising and calling my push.
If you push instead, I'd probably fold A2-A6, 22-55, QJ and QT. For simplicity let's assume your equity against BB if I fold is 300 chips. I'll hold each of those pairs 1/220 times and all the other hands - 7 of em - show up 1/83 times. So (I can just add them together, yeah?) I'll have one of those hands 7/83 + 4/220 = 10.25% of the time. I'll hold the remaining call hands 9/83 + 9/220 = 14.93% of the time. So you've made me fold about 40% of the hands I was pushing with. Equity against the remaining hands is 36.103%. So total push equity is .4 * 2200 + .36103 * 6200 = 2223 chips.
If you've followed me this far, the results of this rambling are:
- Raising to 1000 and folding to a push is the worst.
- Versus me, raising to 1000 and calling my push has better equity than just pushing.
Note that versus a less aggressive player, say someone who only pushes with my call hands above, there's no difference between pushing and raising 1000 and calling the push (for obvious reasons) but both are still worse than pushing.
Also trying to exploit the extra equity of raising to 1000 and calling a push is dubious, because that extra equity comes at the price of putting your stack on the line more frequently.
Phew! Didn't mean for this to be an essay /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Irieguy
01-24-2005, 09:43 PM
Nice post.
Irieguy
patrick dicaprio
01-24-2005, 09:49 PM
i dont necessarily do it anymore, because with many players it is obvious what you are doing. i will either calibrate it with what will get players to fold or will just make a standard raise or vary the raises depending on what i have been doing in the game. just mix it up because if you go all in four times with playable hands you will be called at least once and players will be lying in wait to trap you.
Pat
patrick dicaprio
01-24-2005, 09:50 PM
this is one hundred percent true, IMO. one reason i stopped doing it was that often you can have a situation where if there are four players left all four will have less than 10BB. so you dont need to push to get players to fold.
Pat
Unparagoned
01-24-2005, 10:57 PM
well, that basically sounds like what I would have wanted to say...
ChrisV
01-24-2005, 11:51 PM
This is mixed up thinking. The reason you push with <10BB is mostly not because that's what it takes to get people to fold. It's because folding to a reraise loses chips compared to calling the reraise, versus typical reraising hands. That being the case, it doesn't matter how much more likely people are to fold to an allin - even if it's 0.1% of the time, you still might as well push.
Phil Van Sexton
01-25-2005, 12:06 AM
I can't believe that you are making me do math. I knew I should have just said "10xBB doesn't always apply" and just end it. Now I'm fumbling around in PokerStove and Excel trying to figure this out. I might just make a bad beat post out of spite.
Couple questions...
[ QUOTE ]
So total push equity is .4 * 2200 + .36103 * 6200 = 2223 chips.
[/ QUOTE ]
What is this ".4 * 2200"??
[ QUOTE ]
- Versus me, raising to 1000 and calling my push has better equity than just pushing.
[/ QUOTE ]
I assumed that the BB would always fold and ran the EV calculations. I'm getting +410 for pushing and +376 for raising & calling the re-raise. So how can raising & calling have more equity?
[ QUOTE ]
Note that versus a less aggressive player, say someone who only pushes with my call hands above, there's no difference between pushing and raising 1000 and calling the push (for obvious reasons) but both are still worse than pushing.
[/ QUOTE ]
Pushing is worse than pushing? Do you mean "better than raising & folding to a re-raise"?
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 12:23 AM
[ QUOTE ]
What is this ".4 * 2200"??
[/ QUOTE ]
The hands I'd fold if he pushed, but raise if he didnt push, amount to 40% of all the hands I'd push. 2200 is because as stated I'm assuming the equity he has against BB if I fold is only +300, due to BB calling a percentage of the time. Probably a pessimistic estimate, but I couldn't be bothered running the numbers.
[ QUOTE ]
I assumed that the BB would always fold and ran the EV calculations. I'm getting +410 for pushing and +376 for raising & calling the re-raise. So how can raising & calling have more equity?
[/ QUOTE ]
Your numbers are probably correct if you make that assumption about BB. BB complicates things because sometimes he calls when you and SB both push as well. I think assuming he always hands you the blinds is pretty generous though.
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is worse than pushing? Do you mean "better than raising & folding to a re-raise"?
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what that was supposed to say. But yeah, that's what I meant. I'm posting from work and alt-tabbing away when anyone walks past so none of this is guaranteed to make sense :P
Thanks Chris.
I'm still confused about the ".4*2200." I understand the part about you folding 40% of the hands you would have reraised with, but not the "2200" bit. Hero starts hand with 2900 chips, gains 300 from BB, and ends up with 2200? Did you mean to say 3200?
You're right, it's too much to assume that the BB will always fold. Matter of fact, he'll call/re-raise more when Hero pushes, since SB will get out of the way more often.
[ QUOTE ]
.4 * 2200 + .36103 * 6200 = 2223 chips.
[/ QUOTE ]
(.4)(2200) + (.36103)(6200) =~ 3118 chips
Phil Van Sexton
01-25-2005, 12:42 AM
[ QUOTE ]
My push range here is approximately any pair, any ace, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.
[/ QUOTE ]
You are the chip lead in the *Small Blind* and you are going to bet your tournament on QT after I put in 33% of my chips? I find this hard to believe. Even if true, this is not typcial in the games I play, and my post assumes typical players. If you did this much calling, I think I'd know it by now.
My problem with the numbers is that you only talk about chips. This isn't a ring game, so we need to talk about the impact on the prize money.
As for the numbers, you say that if I fold to your push I have 1900 left. If I call your push, I have equity of 2655 since I have 42.82% of equity. This also means I'll have 0 chips more then 50% of the time.
In my scenario, I'll have 1900 chips 100.00% of the time. Remember, not all chips are of equal value.
I can't believe you forced me to bust out Excel. I used the formula described here (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=324276&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) and found that my folding plan has an EV of $31.01 (this is a 10/1 tournament).
Calling and winning is worth $45.30. Calling and losing is worth $20 (ie 3rd place). Calling and splitting is worth 35.46.
PokerStove is still cranking away on the exact #s, but based on your equity % of 42.82%, let's say 39.82% win, 54.18% lose, 6% split. When I run this, the weighted average for calling is $31.00.
So $31.01 vs. $31.00. I think the result is clear! Just kidding.
I think most players will be much tighter than you describe in this spot. This swings the number MUCH more in favor of folding.
Throw in the standard "avoid close gambles for all your chips when you are a better player" and I think its clear that folding is correct after the big stack pushes in a 10/1 game.
The rest of your post talks about whether it made sense to bet only 1000 in the first place. This is a more complicated question and I'm not really understanding your math at this time. I'll read it again in the morning.
zaphod
01-25-2005, 01:14 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe that you are making me do math. I knew I should have just said "10xBB doesn't always apply" and just end it. Now I'm fumbling around in PokerStove and Excel trying to figure this out. I might just make a bad beat post out of spite.
[/ QUOTE ]
lol
I am waiting for your bad beat post.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 01:30 AM
Sorry, that should have read (.4)(2200) + (.6)(.36103)(6200) because you only get your equity in the 6200 pot the 60% of the time that you call. You're right that it should be (.4)(3200) though, which changes push equity to 2623 chips which is almost identical to raising 1000 and calling the push, which sounds more reasonable.
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, that should have read (.4)(2200) + (.6)(.36103)(6200) because you only get your equity in the 6200 pot the 60% of the time that you call. You're right that it should be (.4)(3200) though, which changes push equity to 2623 chips which is almost identical to raising 1000 and calling the push, which sounds more reasonable.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Chris! That makes perfect sense. Sorry to have bugged you so much about this.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 02:12 AM
QT is a decent hand, it has an equity of about .41 against typical raising ranges. I ran the numbers and it comes out to a net loss of around 340 chips if you always call. This compares favourably with the 1600 I win when you fold.
$31 versus $30 might sound insignificant, but given that $20 of that is locked away already, it's effectively a 10% increase in your win. Or to put it another way, at $200 tourneys, where I play, that same increase would be an increase of $20. My ITM is somewhere around 37% so if I could make a gain like this every final three it would be an extra $7.40 per tourney, or about $37/hr. Good poker is all about pushing these small edges.
In final three it isn't just gambles for all your chips you want to avoid, it's any kind of confrontation at all. It's precisely because I want to avoid confrontations that I'm pushing, because against a typically aggressive player just like me, I can make him fold fully 40% of the hands he would otherwise have reraised allin. That I didn't gamble all my chips isn't very comforting when I've lost over a third of my stack.
If you think you're up against timid players who will only reraise big pairs and so forth, then go nuts raising 1000. Note that even against such a player, if I give them say AA-66, AK, AQ, AJ only, in other words entirely hands that dominate you, your chip gain from folding is pretty small - 235 chips. If you want to move up past the 10's at some point I think it's better to not chase small gains like that and instead learn strategies that will serve you well against other good, aggressive players.
microbet
01-25-2005, 02:44 AM
The 'follow the 10BB rule' people seem pretty convincing to me, but if it is very clear that it is a good rule, then why not 11BB rule or 12BB or more?
Do you ALWAYS push or fold with 10BB, almost always push or fold with 11BB and usually push or fold with 12BB?
Eh, I thought I was being a smart-ass, but that doesn't sound too bad to me.
assron
01-25-2005, 02:49 AM
I understand all the math, but there's absolutely no way I'm moving to push or fold mode with 1000 chips and 50/100 blinds. Believe it or not, I still think I have some space to maneuver at this stage, and I can make a lot of things happen for me that I couldnt if I went to a preflop game. At this stage, I'm still calling 2xBB raises with suited connectors and pairs. 7-8x BB is when I start pushing here. From what I've seen in the many many many SNGs that I've played is that the players who start pushing too hard with 1000 chips and 50/100 blinds tend to, for one, get less respect for their raises, and secondly, leave themselves completely vulnerable to being called by dominating hands as the whole table eagerly awaits them to push while holding a probable winner. I wouldnt go push or fold with 10xBB until the blinds got to 100/200 and there are 6 players or less. All the math in the world isn't going to change my mind on this one.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 04:35 AM
It's ten because thats the largest amount where the maths dictates that you should almost always call when your standard (3xBB) raise is reraised.
Actually, that amount is more like 9-9.5, but it's been made ten for a couple reasons: (1) Easy to remember (2) Pushing gives the additional benefit that people will fold hands like AJ or 55 that they may have raised allin with.
[ QUOTE ]
the maths
[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't realize you were British, Chris. Or is it Canadian?
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 10:05 AM
Australian. We use British spelling, etc.
Phil Van Sexton
01-25-2005, 10:44 AM
It would help if you actually read my posts. I said folding was $31.01 and calling was $31.00. It's a toss up. Your logic was flawed and your conclusion was wrong. You cannot simply look at equity in terms of chips counts. You must take the extra step to factor in the payouts in examples like this.
Actually, it doesn't matter if you were wrong or not. That's just an added bonus. My pet peeve is when I make a response to a question from a 10/1 player, and some 200/15 or 50/5 player responds with "that would never work against me because...".
Who cares? What does this have to do with the original question? If you want to brag about your great skill, please start another post rather than confusing a 10/1 player with a bunch of numbers that are completely irrelevant to the typical 10/1 game.
I even mention this in my original response...
[ QUOTE ]
Remember when you see advice from great players like Strassa, they are playing against more aggressive opponents, and there are more chips in play (since the higher tournament start with 1000). Because of this, small raises to 400 or 600 do not get the job done, and therefore pushing is usually the correct play. At 30/3 and below, this is not necessarily the case.
[/ QUOTE ]
Immediately, I get a response from an aggressive 200 player telling me that my suggestion of a making a small raise won't work against him. To add insult to injury, you don't even mention that you play the 200s until a later post. How is this helping the OP to improve his 10/1 game?
I don't know what to make of your last post. After misquoting me and saying calling increases your win by 10%, you say [ QUOTE ]
Good poker is all about pushing these small edges.
[/ QUOTE ].
In the ****SAME POST****, you say this....
[ QUOTE ]
if I give them say AA-66, AK, AQ, AJ only, in other words entirely hands that dominate you, your chip gain from folding is pretty small - 235 chips. If you want to move up past the 10's at some point I think it's better to not chase small gains like that and instead learn strategies that will serve you well against other good, aggressive players.
[/ QUOTE ]
If I lower your winning % from 39.82% to 32%, I'm now showing calling being worth $29.02. This is almost 20% worse than folding (ie you win only $9 over $20 guaranteed money as opposed to $11).
So "pushing small edges" is good, but only when it supports your flawed argument? You are basically saying "push small (10%) edges, but don't chase big (20%) edges".
If players want to move beyond the 10/1, they need to understand why 1 play is better than another against different opponents. The 10BB Rule is often correct, but you should understand why it is correct to push rather than blindly pushing because of an arbitrary rule.
Also, new players need to be wary of all posters (including me). Many good players are unable to explain how they play. They try to simplify their thought process into a "system" that new players can understand, but their actual play is much more complex and may not apply to the opponents you see at the lower limits.
schwza
01-25-2005, 11:14 AM
suppose you have AA with T900, and the blinds just went up to 50/100.
it seems like many people are saying that a small raise will induce a push more often than a push induces a call, so does anyone just raise to T250 here?
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 11:45 AM
Wow this thread is really one of the best in a while. The A6 hand is pretty close. But let's consider this:
I have A2o on button with 10bb, both sb and bb has me covered. So I don't have to worry about one short stack etc.
I know pushing with A2o is very bad, but I hesitate to throw it away as well. So I usually raise to 2.5bb for example and fold to a reraise pretty easily. Because A2 is better than average holding but definitely a dog to hands that people like to reraise with. Is this a leak in my game? /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I think 10bb rule breaks here.
[ QUOTE ]
Wow this thread is really one of the best in a while. The A6 hand is pretty close. But let's consider this:
I have A2o on button with 10bb, both sb and bb has me covered. So I don't have to worry about one short stack etc.
I know pushing with A2o is very bad, but I hesitate to throw it away as well. So I usually raise to 2.5bb for example and fold to a reraise pretty easily. Because A2 is better than average holding but definitely a dog to hands that people like to reraise with. Is this a leak in my game? /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I think 10bb rule breaks here.
[/ QUOTE ]
NO!!! You'd be much better off saving those 2.5x BB for a better hand, a hand u feel more comfortable pushing!! folding getting 2:1 odds is terrible!!! because after losing those 2.5x BB u lose folding equity... limping and then folding w/ less than 10x BB is also bad poker... i see so many people doing this...
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 12:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow this thread is really one of the best in a while. The A6 hand is pretty close. But let's consider this:
I have A2o on button with 10bb, both sb and bb has me covered. So I don't have to worry about one short stack etc.
I know pushing with A2o is very bad, but I hesitate to throw it away as well. So I usually raise to 2.5bb for example and fold to a reraise pretty easily. Because A2 is better than average holding but definitely a dog to hands that people like to reraise with. Is this a leak in my game? /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I think 10bb rule breaks here.
[/ QUOTE ]
NO!!! You'd be much better off saving those 2.5x BB for a better hand, a hand u feel more comfortable pushing!! folding getting 2:1 odds is terrible!!! because after losing those 2.5x BB u lose folding equity... limping and then folding w/ less than 10x BB is also bad poker... i see so many people doing this...
[/ QUOTE ]
This is something I have been pondering about lately. Especially at $30 buyins or above. You are not getting good hands to play. Usually 5-6 handed aggressive game, it would never fold to you on sb or button. What to do then? So I am thinking since stack is quite deep 10bb, I like to mixed it up with 2-3bb raise alot even I have 7-10bb. My experience is that people still pay great respect to min raise at $20-30. Of course this does not include a hand that have odds to call reraise. /images/graemlins/cool.gif
I was wondering does good players never raise without all in with less than 10bb? I was intrigued by the frequency people do that at 20-30 level. Maybe they are doing something wrong?
Also, what happens if u get called and flop completeley misses you? What if the other person pulls a stop n go with any 2 cards.... you leave youself w/o options post flop, because folding after the flop w/ so much money in the middle is again a mistake... Also, u hafta play your good hands in the same manner... so are u gona raise to 2.5x BB w/ JJ? What happens post flop?
Phil Van Sexton
01-25-2005, 01:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
suppose you have AA with T900, and the blinds just went up to 50/100.
it seems like many people are saying that a small raise will induce a push more often than a push induces a call, so does anyone just raise to T250 here?
[/ QUOTE ]
I would. This isn't even close against typical 30/3 and under players. Since we just started 50/100 level, we are just entering the stealing phase, so my opponents have no idea that I'm trapping. They will think that this is my standard raise.
It is trickier later after you've pushed a few times. After seeing you push a few times, a non-push might be interpretted as a trap. On the other hand, some players will see a sudden non-push as a huge show of weakness. Like I said, this is much trickier.
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 01:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Also, what happens if u get called and flop completeley misses you? What if the other person pulls a stop n go with any 2 cards.... you leave youself w/o options post flop, because folding after the flop w/ so much money in the middle is again a mistake... Also, u hafta play your good hands in the same manner... so are u gona raise to 2.5x BB w/ JJ? What happens post flop?
[/ QUOTE ]
I bet half pot on flop leave me 5bb and fold to a check raise. It does not matter if i hit or not.
Most of the player at low limit are not capable of bluffing check raise with nothing. I wonder if he would stop and go me with nothing either. I actually try this a few times and they shut down stealing immediately. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
I am very comfortable playing JJ-AA this way. HU, I am not folding JJ for rest of my chips if K flops.
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 02:13 PM
Even according to your calculation chipEV is same for two cases, EV certainly is low if you get call more.
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 02:35 PM
Phil Van Sexton,
I like read your post so far but not this one. ChrisV is a successful 215 player and also posts alot. His post in this thread is another very insightful one. It's not your fault if you did not know his history before but I think it would be very helpful for this forum to have expert shared experience and thoughts at different level other than 10+1. After all, anyone serious considering making some income need to eventually move away from this level right?
Btw, I found this discussion between you and chrisV very helpful for me at least. /images/graemlins/cool.gif
gvibes
01-25-2005, 02:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I bet half pot on flop leave me 5bb and fold to a check raise. It does not matter if i hit or not.
Most of the player at low limit are not capable of bluffing check raise with nothing. I wonder if he would stop and go me with nothing either. I actually try this a few times and they shut down stealing immediately. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
I am very comfortable playing JJ-AA this way. HU, I am not folding JJ for rest of my chips if K flops.
[/ QUOTE ]
Say both button and BB have around 10xBB's. Folded to Button who raises 2xBB. What does button do if BB calls the raise then pushes the flop? I use this play as the BB occasionally with marginaly reraising hands (say, A8o or something).
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 03:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet half pot on flop leave me 5bb and fold to a check raise. It does not matter if i hit or not.
Most of the player at low limit are not capable of bluffing check raise with nothing. I wonder if he would stop and go me with nothing either. I actually try this a few times and they shut down stealing immediately. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
I am very comfortable playing JJ-AA this way. HU, I am not folding JJ for rest of my chips if K flops.
[/ QUOTE ]
Say both button and BB have around 10xBB's. Folded to Button who raises 2xBB. What does button do if BB calls the raise then pushes the flop? I use this play as the BB occasionally with marginaly reraising hands (say, A8o or something).
[/ QUOTE ]
I raise 2.5bb not 2bb.
call if I hit piece of flop and fold the rest. I am willing to call ace high if I am getting 1:3 odds sometimes.
if you call 2.5 raise PF and push on flop, I am getting 1:1.73 to call. I am calling if I hit flop and fold if I don't. The extra chips I gain by catching a bluff is probably offsetting the chips I lost if both of us miss. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Phil Van Sexton
01-25-2005, 03:58 PM
You are right. My response was pointlessly sarcastic.
I made my post because I know Chris is an excellent 215 player. He is giving good 200/15 advice and we can all learn from this. However, it bothers me when high-limit players disregard any ideas that don't work at 200/15. The 200/15 and 10/1 are different animals, and there is room for more than 1 right answer.
Newer players may not see this. They see a successful player posting a lot of numbers and say to themselves: "the 10BB rule is good, I'll follow that". The problem is that the 10BB rule is not ideal at lower levels where players fold to small raises and the gap between the best and worst players in enormous.
rachelwxm
01-25-2005, 04:20 PM
Phil Van Sexton,
please don't take my post negatively. As a matter of fact, I really like your insight of NL play. But sometimes working a little bit math could be helpful too especially for SNGs. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
keep on good work!
Strollen
01-25-2005, 07:05 PM
Great discussion but have to say I am now pretty confused.
To use a similar hypothetical
10+1 Party
Blinds 50/100
Hero 1000
SB 2700
BB 700
UTG 3000
UTG+1 600
It is folded to me on the button. I have A7o. SB has doubled up on some great hands and his VPIP is ~20%, BB is looser.
Do I fold, raise to 250, or Push?
I'd normally raise to 250 and fold to a reraise by the SB and call an all-in by the BB.
If I had 700 chips I'd probably fold.
Phil Van Sexton
01-25-2005, 07:12 PM
Good question, but this thread has about 5 different questions going at once and my head is hurting. Start another thread and I'll respond later tonight.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 09:41 PM
Yes, although it depends. On the button, especially when raising through a big stack, a 2.5BB raise will be interpreted as not wanting to commit. However from UTG people will give it respect as it's an UTG raise, whereas pushing from UTG is likely to be interpreted as not wanting a call.
Also as Phil said if you have been pushing a lot, deviating from that is likely to look suspicious.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 09:48 PM
Apologies for the 30/31 thing.
I ran my own numbers using the ICM and folding actually comes out better than calling. I'm not sure I believe that. The problem with tournament models of this kind is that they don't take into account blind size. The model gives the same result for blinds 10/15 as for blinds 200/400 which is clearly not the case. If you fold, then as big stack I will not be letting up the pressure. I will raise allin from the button with probably 80% of my hands the next hand. The ICM will probably tell you you have to fold again (you can test this if you like, I've had enough maths). What it's missing is that you are on a clock - your equity is not as good as it thinks because the blinds are eating you up.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 10:00 PM
Well, it isn't a leak in your game if it works, but I think you would want to be taking it down preflop a lot. Situations where you could lose half your stack without showing down are bad news.
If I feel uncomfortable pushing in a given situation with 10BB or less, I take that as a sign I shouldn't be raising at all, rather than that I should raise less.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 10:38 PM
PS: The numbers above are for folding versus raising to 1000 and then calling the push. I just ran the ICM numbers for pushing immediately, making the assumptions:
- BB always folds
- SB folds A2-A6, QJ, QT, 22-55 where he would otherwise have pushed
- I ignored splits for simplicity and used 42.82% win.
The equation is:
(.4)(0.3693) + (.6)(.4282)(.4540) + (.6)(.5718)(.2)
This comes out to 0.333 - a clear winner. The question how fair assuming BB always folds is - the answer is probably "not very". BB complicates things because sometimes he calls when SB calls too. I can't think of a good way to account for his influence.
ChrisV
01-25-2005, 10:49 PM
Firstly, I don't think the objective of a 10+1 player should be to become a master at the 10+1's. People should be building a game that can beat higher levels as well.
Secondly, the biggest mistake I think people make in SNGs... it's kind of a two-part mistake, abstract and concrete. The abstract mistake is that people imagine they have more control over the outcome towards the end than they actually do. This leads to the most common concrete mistake of making terrible folds. When I first started playing SNGs on Paradise several years ago, starting chips were 800 and the blinds went all the way up to 500/1000 (not sure if the structure is still like that). My play at the end, looking back, was unbelievably poor - I was under the impression that it was a crime to get allin with the worst hand. Even at the 200's now, I see people day in day out making the most ludicrous folds.
There may be the occasional situation where pushing as dictated by the 10BB rule isn't correct, but:
- 10+1 players may well lack the judgement to distinguish between these situations and other situations where not pushing is hugely bad.
- Given people's propensity for bad folds, it is far more likely that a player raises small too much or folds too much than it is that they push too much.
- It is more important to understand the maths and to understand that there is virtually no scope for fancy play when under 10BB than it is to take advantage of these situations.
In short, the general principle is so important that discussing possible exceptions is counterproductive. If you want an analogy, it's making "tough laydowns" in limit holdem. It's possible that an expert player can save a bet here or there folding on the end in big pots. However when advising a 1/2 player how to play, it's "don't make tough laydowns on the river in big pots". Period. It's also quite possible for even an expert player to simply delude themselves about their ability to make good laydowns. I discovered this in Melbourne recently, folding a winner in a $840 pot for one bet on the end in a 30/60 game.
If this appears to contradict what I said earlier about pushing small edges in poker, then that's because your small minds can't comprehend the higher plane my brain operates on /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Phil Van Sexton
01-26-2005, 01:31 AM
[ QUOTE ]
- BB always folds
- SB folds A2-A6, QJ, QT, 22-55 where he would otherwise have pushed
- I ignored splits for simplicity and used 42.82% win.
The equation is:
(.4)(0.3693) + (.6)(.4282)(.4540) + (.6)(.5718)(.2)
This comes out to 0.333 - a clear winner.
[/ QUOTE ]
I am curious how this turns out as well. My question is, why use 42.82% win? I thought your original post put the equity against this smaller set of hands at 36.01%?
Also, you are saying that pushing causes you fold to 40% of the hands you would've pushed with. You said you'd push with 14.93% on the 1000 raise, and 10.25% on a push. That's more like 30% fewer (actually 31.346%).
Making these minor adjustments, my equation looks like...
(0.3)*(0.3682)+(0.7)*(0.3601)*(0.454)+(0.7)*(0.639 9)*(0.2)
The result is 31.45. Still better than the 31.01 we got from the non-push, but not outlandishly so.
In any event, your instincts were correct that this play is not ideal against you. I've said all along that I would push if the blinds were very aggressive, and this proves it to a reasonable certainty.
Given how close this turned out against a player like yourself, I'm quite confident that the non-push would be the better play with a more typical 10/1-30/3 player in the SB.
It is simply the better play against these players. It's a matter of opinion whether newer players should be encouraged to exploit these opportunities. Your position on this is much clearer now after your latest posts. I happen to disagree, but maybe I'll have a different opinion in the morning.
ChrisV
01-26-2005, 09:09 AM
Ugh. I've disgraced myself with my maths in this thread lol. You're right about the 36.01 thing. With the 40% thing though I'm originally pushing 25% of total hands (any pair, any ace, KQ-KT, QJ-QT), but if you push only calling 15% of total hands - so 60% of the hands I was originally pushing.
El Maximo
01-26-2005, 09:31 AM
Good Post Chris. I always find your posts very informative and spot on. I think you are one of the most underrated posters on this forum. Enough ass kissing. I agree at the $10+1 building a solid foundation is more important than learning the exceptions to the rules. Ive seen alot of posts and comments from the new 5-10 players that talk about min-raising, completing in the sb, and 2.5-3x raising when under 10bb on the bubble. They are learning bad habits and it will only hold them back when they jump levels.
Phil Van Sexton
01-26-2005, 11:04 AM
Thanks for doing all the math work. I'm usually far too lazy to follow up like you have.
I agree with most of your last post, but I do have a couple final thoughts.
[ QUOTE ]
Firstly, I don't think the objective of a 10+1 player should be to become a master at the 10+1's. People should be building a game that can beat higher levels as well.
[/ QUOTE ]
I don't believe that these 2 things are mutually exclusive. For example, I think Ed Miller's Small Stakes Holdem does both for low-limit ring game players.
My earlier post can be summarized as "if the SB is not aggressive, it is +EV to not push even though you have less than 10BB in this particular case". Assuming I have the numbers right, this is +EV at 10/1, 30/3, or 200/15.
Maybe the situation doesn't come up as often in the 200/15 because most player are aggressive, but situations like this will appear at every level. I am quite certain that you are taking advantage of +EV plays rather than blindly following the 10BB rule.
Therefore, when you tell new players to just follow the 10BB rule, you are giving advice that is:
- Sub-optimal for 10/1, 20/2, 30/2
- Sub-optimal for 200/15
- Not how you actually play.
As you point out, the advantage of the 10BB rule is that it basically idiot-proofs bubble play, and stops players from making bad folds. This is fine for Aleo's 10/1 cookbook, but blindly following a rule doesn't help players get better, so it doesn't achieve your stated goal.
In order to compete at the higher levels, players need to understand *why* pushing is correct in most cases. As you well know, the answer much more complicated than "because I have less than 10BB".
Maybe some 10/1 players need training wheels because they can't tell the difference between a +EV play and a weak-ass min-raise. If a player can't understand this obvious difference, I would argue that it's unlikely that they have the ability to ever play the higher limits. Giving them a 10BB rule isn't going to change this.
I recognize the OP, schwza, from the NL forums, and I'm fairly confident that he doesn't need the idiot-proofing. He asked if his play was correct even though it violated the 10BB rule. My answer is: against non-aggressive opponents, his play was correct. I feel that schwza (and most others) will be able to parse this sentence.
Your point is well taken though. I will need to be careful when making posts like this so that my advice is not misinterpretted as advocating weak play.
Laughingboy
01-26-2005, 11:40 AM
At the risk of adding still more complexity, I have another wrinkle. There are cases when you'd prefer to be called rather than just picking up the blinds (e.g. AA). The strategy that Phil suggests (which, correct me if I'm wrong, amounts to putting a short stack, but not yourself, all-in when there is a semi-passive big stack between you) has the added benefit that if you do fold to a big raise from the big stack, you've set some precedent for being pushed off a small raise. Then you can deceptively make a small raise with a premium hand and have a better shot at inducing a push rather than suspicion of trapping. I know that "advertising" at these high limits is not a good idea, but I believe this adds further +EV to the play in the cases where it is appropriate.
I randomly raise about 3x BB instead of pushing about 5-10% of the time when near 10xbb, knowing I will call a push, for a similar reason. If I call a push, everyone sees I made a small raise with a pushing hand. It mixes things up just enough to make my opponents unsure when I make a small raise with a huge hand. Comments on this?
Thanks,
Sean
Phil Van Sexton
01-26-2005, 01:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
if you do fold to a big raise from the big stack, you've set some precedent for being pushed off a small raise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, you've set some precendent, but I'm not sure how much value it really provides. As Chris points out, with blinds this high, there isn't much time to be fooling around.
It's pretty unlikely that I'll try this play, get bitch-slapped by the SB, build my stack back up again, then immediately get AA before anyone is eliminated.
Furthermore, once I get my ass handed to me with a small raise, I'm pretty unlikely to try that again without the goods. If a good player, the SB knows this. I'm not going to keep giving away $1000 bets, so the next time when I bet 1000 with AA, the SB may smell a rat.
Or maybe he will assume I'm a moron (reasonable), and push. It depends, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.
Laughingboy
01-26-2005, 01:24 PM
All perfectly reasonable points, which is why I don't suggest doing this (i.e. folding) just for advertising. It's just a little extra bonus for a play you might make anyway.
What do you think of my randomized approach? I reiterate, I only do it if I intend to call an all-in reraise -- folding is out of the question. I believe at high limits where even a min raise is a big chunk of someone's stack, I give up little folding equity, but gain a lot in deceptive value.
I've had good results with this so far, but don't have much data.
Phil Van Sexton
01-26-2005, 02:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I believe at high limits where even a min raise is a big chunk of someone's stack, I give up little folding equity, but gain a lot in deceptive value.
[/ QUOTE ]
Deception is of little value since the tournament will be over very soon after the blinds go up. Just play your hands in an optimal fashion.
You may get an "image" by accident depending how things play out. It's possible to take some advantage of your perceived image, but I wouldn't go out of my way to project a certain image once the blinds get high.
You certainly shouldn't engineer your game around getting the most out of AA when the blinds are high. Once the blinds are high, how many hands before the tournament ends? 40? Of these hands, how often will you be in a steal position (ie not in the BB, no one raised ahead of you)? Maybe 33% of the time? You only get AA once every 220 hands.
Therefore, this case only occurs 40 * .33 ....screw this, I'm not doing any more math. Trust me, it's not as often as you think, so it's a bad idea to adjust your standard play in order maximize your winnings with a hand that you probably won't be getting.
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