Early lean on Philly

[Zoltri]

I think 7 points is far too much here...I like Philly and the points. I just like the way the Eagles defense is playing right now. In my mind, they are the hardest hitting team in the league and that is what you need to beat the Pats. My only fear is how they will handle the next 2 weeks, Pats have been there..done that.

Ask yourself this, if this was a regular season game, would 7 points seem high to you? But then again, it is the Super Bowl and we all know that is a different situation.

Its still early and I haven't done my homework on the game but those are my early thoughts. BTW, im not a Eagles fan.

[CCx]

Im in too! I like the +7....way too many points. Love the ML too but thats only for homers i think /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

The books are begging you to take the Eagles. So take the Pats, of course. I expect a Pats blowout (and so do the books).

[Zoltri]

[ QUOTE ]
The books are begging you to take the Eagles. So take the Pats, of course. I expect a Pats blowout (and so do the books).

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong.
The books are begging for even action.

[TimTimSalabim]

Before you go saying that, study the thread called "the myth of balanced action".

[Zoltri]

Yes, I read it...pretty funny thread.
Most of those guys dont have a clue.

I sense an avalanche of criticism coming. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
I just like the way the Eagles defense is playing right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Eagles will have the 2nd best defesne in this game

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind, they are the hardest hitting team in the league and that is what you need to beat the Pats.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people thought the same thing about Pittsburgh.

[ QUOTE ]
Ask yourself this, if this was a regular season game, would 7 points seem high to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The Patriots were just -3 AT Pittsburgh. On a neutral field, Pats would have been -6, and the Steelers are far better than the Eagles.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
The Eagles will have the 2nd best defesne in this game

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this accurate when the two defenses are statistically about as similar as it gets? A case can be made that the Eagles actually have the BETTER defense in terms of points allowed and yards allowed due to the two games they mailed in at the end of the season.

[ QUOTE ]
and the Steelers are far better than the Eagles

[/ QUOTE ]

Well chap, there's only two teams playing in Jacksonville in two weeks, and Pittsburgh aint one of 'em /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Zoltri]

Thank you Ccx, I didn't feel like replying. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this accurate when the two defenses are statistically about as similar as it gets? A case can be made that the Eagles actually have the BETTER defense in terms of points allowed and yards allowed due to the two games they mailed in at the end of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Eagles played the easiest schedule (http://teamrankings.com/nfl/27powerratings.php3) in the NFL this year, therefore their defensive stats (and all stats) may look similar to the Pats, but are in fact inferior.

[ QUOTE ]

Well chap, there's only two teams playing in Jacksonville in two weeks, and Pittsburgh aint one of 'em

[/ QUOTE ]

That's b/c they had to play New England /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

Well, as always, I could be wrong. But I think the true line here is about NE -9 and the balance line is about NE -5. If I'm right, then we'll see a ton of money come in on the Eagles and they'll have to move it down to NE -6 to keep it from becoming too unbalanced. If it stays at NE -7 then I'm wrong.

[Zoltri]

The Pats looked good but look a little closer and you will notice the Steelers had more offensive yardage. That plus 3 interceptions off a rookie QB (4 TO total) and 2 untimely penalties against the Steelers.

The point I am making is, I believe the Steelers choked (Ben) and the Patriots, to their credit, were very opportunistic.

[CCx]

No sense trying to discuss things rationally with a Pats fan (and the argument can be made for my homer/Eagles fanaticism as well /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

We'll see in two weeks - anyone taking the Pats minus the points is losing money. You'll be in the same boat as those who took the Vikings and Falcons the last two weeks, sorry to say.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
No sense trying to discuss things rationally with a Pats fan (and the argument can be made for my homer/Eagles fanaticism as well /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

We'll see in two weeks - anyone taking the Pats minus the points is losing money. You'll be in the same boat as those who took the Vikings and Falcons the last two weeks, sorry to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to discuss this objectively., and am willing to discuss any facts you have, or opinions you can support strongly. That's what debate is. I don't think I have made any 'fanboy' comments.

It's fine for you to think the Eagles will win, or cover. I'm just looking for objective reasons why you think this will happen. (will the Eagles be able to run on the Pats? Pass? Stop the run? Get turnovers? Etc).

[bugstud]

I think the ditribution of the NE's wins makes PHI +7 (I'd buy to 7.5) a pretty strong play. To me, it looks like this will be a very good game with a lot of the Patriot wins being of a late-second FG variety. I don't think that the Eagles are getting blown out often enough to have the Pats winning by 7 over 50% of the time.

Not that my opinion means much, but my two cents, given that I've been wrong two week running on the Pats.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
It's fine for you to think the Eagles will win, or cover. I'm just looking for objective reasons why you think this will happen. (will the Eagles be able to run on the Pats? Pass? Stop the run? Get turnovers? Etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that the Eagles defense is peaking at the right time, and it's a very high peak considering their rise in the later part of the season. Much of this can be attributed to Trotter's play in the middle, but the d-line has also stepped up considerably, and our secondary is the best in the league. I think that our style of defense and Jim Johnson's schemes are like nothing the Pats have played against - this doesn't mean they can't watch film and gameplan against it, it's just very different. The way he incorporates the blitz into his defensive scheme is very unqiue - week to week, different guys come breaking through in different spots, or they may rush up to duplicate something from prior weeks that was seen on tape and then fall back into coverage at the last second, with another guy taking their place on the blitz - or what Johnson loves to do which gets them a good amount of interceptions is blitz a guy and have someone fill the original spot of the blizting guy, this is something the Eagles do VERY well. Our defense also prides itself on hitting hard, and playing at such a high level the whole game. Not to say that the Pats dont do either of those things, so this may be a positive for the Pats too, but if the Pats DONT hit as hard as us and play at the level we're playing at, I dont think they have a chance to move the ball offensively. I think that we'll be able to limit Dillon to under 100 yards rushing, and to be honest none of the receivers on the Pats worry me when I take into consideration the strength of our secondary. Our defense is very disruptive and our team turnover ratio is one of the best in the league - I believe we'll have at least one interception and at least one fumble recovery, and those may be the keys to the game.

On offense we have a tall task, as the Patriots defense is not to be taken lightly. Injuries have taken their toll on the Pats defense, but they've shown that the backups that play in those spots are great football players and can come through when needed. I think the Pats have good linebackers that can either spy McNabb or attempt to take Westbrook out of the game, but on the other hand I think with T.O. coming back, even if he's just the third receiver, this presents some problems for any defense, and while I think the Pats secondary is above average, I think you'll find a lot of guys out of position on certain plays because it's just hard to gameplan to cover that many weapons on every play, and I think this is one of the Eagles' strengths. Andy Reid has always distributed the ball around evenly, a little less so once T.O. got into the picture, but that's still how he approaches a game. At one point yesterday McNabb was 6 of 9 for 95 yards with each completion going to a different receiver. I think with Owens, McNabb, Westbrook, Levens, LJ Smith/Chad Lewis, and to a lesser extent Pinkston/Mitchell/Greg Lewis, it could be too much for the Pats - they were able to contain Peyton Manning because I think it's easy when you have a great defense to gameplan against a team like Indy. Sure you have to worry about the running game with Edge, but as long as you've got guys covering the underneath routes and still keeping their eye on the deep ball, you're fine, as was shown in the Pats/Colts game. The Eagles run a LOT of screen passes and throw some interesting offensive formations at you - again this can all be shown on tape but once you're out there, it's a different story. Bill Belichick is the one coach in this league that has shown time and time again that he's able to gameplan against ANY team, and if I was a Pats fan, this is where I'd be pinning my hopes.

I've been talking with Pats fans all morning at work, some of them more objective than others, but I think it comes down to the fact that it's going to be a fantastic football game, and we're all excited as hell.

That being said, my money's still on the Eagles to cover because of the points listed above. My money's on the Eagles to win as well because I'm from here, and I think they've got a realistic shot to bring it home!

[BeantownCaller]

Great post CCx. You are a far more objective sports fan than I. While I do agree that the game will likely be close, and 7 points is a huge spread in the superbowl (although I do FOGGILY remember the pats winning a superbowl not too long ago as 14 point dogs /images/graemlins/laugh.gif).

Anyhow, while the Eagles are a great team and T.O. will make their lives easier, I don't think they're as good as the pats. While the pats may not cover, I don't see the Eagles winning this game, sorry.

I think if Westbrook plays as well as he played the past couple of weeks he might be able to keep it close, he has shown himself quite versatile and able to get 5+ touches on a drive and still fight for extra yards, which is impressive. If TO returns back in good form and westbrook gets 200 all purpose yards the birds may put some points up, but the pats are too nasty /images/graemlins/smile.gif

And for naysayers talking about the pat's not killing the stealers in total yards, I guess a defensive TD and coasting for the 2nd half will do that to your stats. I recall we did put up more points though, and I'm pretty sure that's what matters most.

I got in on AFC -4.5 last week with Pinnacle, but only for like $50, but anyhow I'm happy on that. I might throw some prop bets up on the game but 7 points is a lot, I think I'd rather just watch and hope we blow the eags out and my prop bets come in /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It's gonna be a good game!!!

[kenberman]

good post CCx. I enjoy trash talking as much as the next guy, but would much rather discuss X's and O's.

to reply...
[ QUOTE ]
and our secondary is the best in the league.

[/ QUOTE ]
to quote John Clayton: The Patriots had a defensive quarterback rating of 75.3, allowing only 18 regular season touchdown passes and a 58.6 completion percentage. The Eagles allowed opponents a 75.8 rating and 60.7 completion percentage."

I think the secondary matchup is a wash. Eagles have more "name" players, but the facts say the performance has been equivalent.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that our style of defense and Jim Johnson's schemes are like nothing the Pats have played against - this doesn't mean they can't watch film and gameplan against it, it's just very different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thier schemes may be different, but not nec. better than either the Steelers or Ravens. So the Eagles D will in now way be a "shock" to the Pats.

[ QUOTE ]
but if the Pats DONT hit as hard as us and play at the level we're playing at, I dont think they have a chance to move the ball offensively.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, the Patriots just scored 41 points against the best D in the NFL. 34 of these were offensive points. I'm not worried about their ability to move the ball.

[ QUOTE ]
and to be honest none of the receivers on the Pats worry me when I take into consideration the strength of our secondary

[/ QUOTE ]

None of the Pats recievers are "name" guys. That's the way Belicheck likes it. He lets guys like Randy Moss and Joe Horn get headlines, while he sends out 5 guys who are all excellent football players. Givens and Branch might be stars in other systems. Brown had been to Pro Bowls. Patten is solid. the TE is solid. Great group all around. Not always flashy, but productive.

[ QUOTE ]
Our defense is very disruptive and our team turnover ratio is one of the best in the league - I believe we'll have at least one interception and at least one fumble recovery, and those may be the keys to the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Eagles TO ratio this year was +11; the Pats was +10. Given SOS consideration, the Pats defense has been more impressive.

[ QUOTE ]
but on the other hand I think with T.O. coming back, even if he's just the third receiver, this presents some problems for any defense, and while I think the Pats secondary is above average, I think you'll find a lot of guys out of position on certain plays because it's just hard to gameplan to cover that many weapons on every play, and I think this is one of the Eagles' strengths.

[/ QUOTE ]

After facing Harrison/Wayne/Stokley and then Ward/Burress/Rand El, the Eagles WR's won't intimdate or overwhelm the pats D. this wr group is the 3rd best of the bunch. especially with chad lewis now hurt.

[ QUOTE ]
because I think it's easy when you have a great defense to gameplan against a team like Indy. Sure you have to worry about the running game with Edge, but as long as you've got guys covering the underneath routes and still keeping their eye on the deep ball, you're fine, as was shown in the Pats/Colts game.

[/ QUOTE ]

manning set all time records this year for td's and qb rating. if it was this easy, then why couldn't anybody else shut them down? they scored 20 against baltimore and 34 against san diego.

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, my money's still on the Eagles to cover because of the points listed above. My money's on the Eagles to win as well because I'm from here, and I think they've got a realistic shot to bring it home!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take that action.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
good post CCx. I enjoy trash talking as much as the next guy, but would much rather discuss X's and O's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, and ditto.

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take that action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Logon to your local sportsbook or call the bookie, they've got the lines /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I think you make some valid counterpoints in your response, but I don't think I've got it in me to pick apart a post like that, so I'll just say I'm looking forward to a fantastic game in two weeks - and I still think that the Eagles +7 is a bargain right now, if on the off-chance the Eagles lose the game (/images/graemlins/crazy.gif), it wont be by much - they don't make stupid mistakes. New England is a very opportunistic team, and always capitalizes on turnovers and others teams' mistakes, so if the Eagles can keep the penalities and turnovers down (which they've shown the ability to do all season), we have a very real chance of winning the game - something that the general public is not ready to come to grips with yet (and I think we here in Philly like it that way!)

[TimTimSalabim]

Ok, I'm an idiot. Looks like the money is coming in on the Pats. I guess the public loves them now. Hmmm, being a contrarian, now I'm thinking of betting the Eagles too.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm an idiot. Looks like the money is coming in on the Pats. I guess the public loves them now. Hmmm, being a contrarian, now I'm thinking of betting the Eagles too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that betting on the Eagles, b/c the public is betting on the Patriots, is a pretty poor reason.

[TimTimSalabim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm an idiot. Looks like the money is coming in on the Pats. I guess the public loves them now. Hmmm, being a contrarian, now I'm thinking of betting the Eagles too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that betting on the Eagles, b/c the public is betting on the Patriots, is a pretty poor reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm half-joking, however, it does seem like the public is wrong a good 55% of the time. But then I just pulled that stat out of my butt. If it was that easy, you could just bet against the line move every time and be done with it. I know it's not that easy /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[Zoltri]

You cannot bet Philly if you think they cant win the game. The reason I say that is because 80% (approx) of the time the winning team covers the spread.

Having said that, I believe Philly has a good chance and the 7 points is a definite bonus.

[TimTimSalabim]

I agree, in fact, with the ML at +200, I'm starting to like that bet too, because I think the Eagles have more than a 33% chance of winning outright. Probably closer to 40%.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, in fact, with the ML at +200, I'm starting to like that bet too, because I think the Eagles have more than a 33% chance of winning outright. Probably closer to 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

+200 is awful low - I got it at +220 last night when I got home - you can find it at higher too, I know Pinny has it at +237 for instance.

[Zoltri]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, in fact, with the ML at +200, I'm starting to like that bet too, because I think the Eagles have more than a 33% chance of winning outright. Probably closer to 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]
They can win with no turnovers unlike Pittsburgh who basically handed them the game. Even with 4 TO, the Steelers made a game of it for 3.5 quarters.

[TimTimSalabim]

Sweet. Vegasinsider.com has it at +190, which is kind of strange, because with all the Pats money coming in, I would have expected it to go up. I might wait it out a day or two and see where it goes.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that the Eagles are getting blown out often enough to have the Pats winning by 7 over 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]


Exactly.

I haven't read all the long analyses yet...will get to that stuff later.

Just wanted to say that I think it will be a reasonably competitive game.
I just don't think NE wins in a blow-out (more than 7 points) more than 52.5% of the time here.
Doesn't make sense to me.

I think these two teams could play each other 100 times and certainly wouldn't expect PHI to get blown out of the water.


I'm getting down on PHI +7....and I think the money-line at around +250 would have value also. It's at +237 now so I don't know if it will make it to 250 or not.



Interestingly, my Dad has the general impression that NE is pretty unbeatable as well which I found interesting.

but I think we all agree that Big Ben was less than spectacular yesterday...and with all due-credit to the NE defense, I really think Ben was beating himself as much as anything else. Seemed to be thinking too much...PIT coaching REALLY seemed to pull the reigns on him..they didn't want him running and 'creating' as much (probably afraid of injury) whereas that is exactly where he excels.



NE is good....but I don't think they are 7 points better than PHI and I'm surprised the line is that high on a neutral field.


This means that if they played in Philly then the line would still be NE -4??
Or if they played in foxboro the line would be NE -10??
I'm not buying it even for a little bit!!



I think NE -4 for this game would be more accurate.
that would be -1 if they played in PHI...and would be -7 if they played in foxboro.

I have no stats or charts to back-up that theory....it's just how the game 'feels' to me.



The points being made about PHI's strength of schedule may be valid though. But I'm trying to see through some of the stats a little bit and look at the actual teams. PHI looked really good against a reasonable ATL team I thought.
And clobbered MIN in spite of their constant mistakes.

If they play like they did against MIN or in the regular-season against GB I don't think it is 52.5% likely they would lose by more than 7 points.
These two teams are even enough to warrant betting on the underdog.


FWIW -
A couple weeks ago I took an advanced Super Bowl bet on the NFC at +5.5 thinking I was getting good value.

Boy was I wrong. I just can't believe the line on NE is that high.

So I'm in on Philly for +7 and for the less spectacular line of only +5.5.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, in fact, with the ML at +200, I'm starting to like that bet too, because I think the Eagles have more than a 33% chance of winning outright. Probably closer to 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]
They can win with no turnovers unlike Pittsburgh who basically handed them the game. Even with 4 TO, the Steelers made a game of it for 3.5 quarters.

[/ QUOTE ]

someday, people who don't know the Patriots will stop saying things like this, and start realizing that the Patriots are the ones causing other teams to make mistakes.

sigh.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
This means that if they played in Philly then the line would still be NE -4??
Or if they played in foxboro the line would be NE -10??
I'm not buying it even for a little bit!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that with this reasoning, the line looks strange. However, it looks no stranger than NE -3 @ Pittsburgh (translating to NE -9 at home), and we know how that turned out. Since I'm fairly certain that the Steelers are better than the Eagles, and the Patriots will have Seymour back for the Super Bowl, I think NE being favored by an additional "point" is about right.

[holeplug]

[ QUOTE ]



FWIW -
A couple weeks ago I took an advanced Super Bowl bet on the NFC at +5.5 thinking I was getting good value.

Boy was I wrong. I just can't believe the line on NE is that high.

So I'm in on Philly for +7 and for the less spectacular line of only +5.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you did that before T.O went down.

[craig r]

Hey Zoltri,

Where did you get the data on 80% of the teams that cover outright win? I am not saying that you are wrong, but this idea of "not betting on a team if you think they can't win" was discussed in another forum. And I felt that it was proven pretty well that this is not the case. The reason I find it hard to believe the 80% is that, underdogs cover a little bit more than favorites. But, lets say that it is 50/50..this would mean that the dog would win approx. (and hence cover) 40% of the time. Now, if you are including small dogs, dogs, big dogs, and huge dogs, then maybe the 80% is true. But, I don't think you can make this blanket statement, because each pt. spread is different. How often does a 7pt dog outright win? I am sure it is much less than a 1pt dog out right wins. But the 7pt dogs probably wins even more than a 10pt dog.

craig

[BeantownCaller]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, in fact, with the ML at +200, I'm starting to like that bet too, because I think the Eagles have more than a 33% chance of winning outright. Probably closer to 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]
They can win with no turnovers unlike Pittsburgh who basically handed them the game. Even with 4 TO, the Steelers made a game of it for 3.5 quarters.

[/ QUOTE ]

someday, people who don't know the Patriots will stop saying things like this, and start realizing that the Patriots are the ones causing other teams to make mistakes.

sigh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Preach on Brother!

It's always excuses like their team's failure to hold on to the ball and getting beat on special teams that people attribute their teams losses to.

I mean...sure Bettis lost the ball once against the Jets. He lost it twice against the pats (that Eugene Wilson full speed spear on the ball...such a fumble). Everyone else in the league was having trouble holding bettis to under 4 yards a carry running it straight up the gut every play, but we were stuffing him at the line of scrimmage on every key play AND attacking the ball. We also may not have a world class punt returner (any more...poor troy has been around for a few years), but we get consistantly decent returns unless Bethel feels like dicking around, and we come up with great plays at key moments on special teams all the time.

I think the Pat's strongest point is that they have no bad weaknesses and they have great coaching. They are also above average at every position and friggen won a superbowl with a below average running back, and now we have Corey Dillon. I think our WR's are playing better than they ever have and Brady has better and more targets than ever before (when he used to go to Brown allll the time).

News flash naysayers, reading the play and picking a ball to run back for a TD is not luck. Some teams pressure QB's into throwing bad balls and some teams sniff out bad plays and intercept them. The pats do both great. Samuels coulda had 2 picks that game on badly thrown balls that he couldnt hang on to.
Sure they might not have the best penetrating D line in the league but their linebackers more than make up for it in my opinion, on their ability to stop the run and the pass.

I don't even have anything to say about the "early lean on Philly". I do agree that at the money line Philly is a decent bet because it'd be possible for them to win. I don't think they will, and I don't think it's gonna be a close, last possession game either. I think that if McNabb plays great, Westbrook plays great and TO is healthy and the Pat's dont capitilize on mistakes well it'll be close.

Still gonna be 27-17 pats though /images/graemlins/smile.gif That is unless of course we score early and get the Eagles hanging their heads in the first quarter, then it'll be approxately 63-7. Just like the Rams-Pats SB of a few years ago was supposed to be /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

I believe what that 80% stat means is:

50% of the time (approximately) the favorite wins and covers
30% of the time the dog wins outright
20% of the time the dog loses but covers

But if I've got it wrong, Zoltri can correct me.

[craig r]

Wouldn't the dog outright win 40% of the time? My math could be wrong, but:

50% cover * 80% win= 40% win and cover

craig

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
Still gonna be 27-17 pats though /images/graemlins/smile.gif That is unless of course we score early and get the Eagles hanging their heads in the first quarter, then it'll be approxately 63-7.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to give me Philly +10, I'll GLADLY take action on it. Let me know! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[kdog]

I hate it. I don't see value on either side. If this was a regular season game I'd take Philly +7 in a heartbeat. But it's not a regular season game, it's the Super Bowl. Where teams don't let up because they are ahead, they pour it on. And I think NE will win the game so I can't take the Eagles.

But NE is a team that reminds me of Al Davis's "Just win baby!" philosophy. They don't usually blow teams away but at the end of the game they are ahead. And in spite of both teams having good defenses I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball enough to score some points. So I don't want to lay the 7 either.

My bet for this game is a NE -.5/over 41 teaser. 3 units.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
My bet for this game is a NE -.5/over 41 teaser. 3 units.

[/ QUOTE ]

kdog you read my mind, I made the same tease but got NE-1 and over 41, also took under 48 on a str8 bet.

I handicap this games score to be 24-21 NE by a FG.

[BeantownCaller]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Still gonna be 27-17 pats though /images/graemlins/smile.gif That is unless of course we score early and get the Eagles hanging their heads in the first quarter, then it'll be approxately 63-7.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to give me Philly +10, I'll GLADLY take action on it. Let me know! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

if we score first i'll give u phllt +10 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[$DEADSEXE$]

The score of this game will be very similar to the score of the same match-up last year when they faced each other...maybe add 3-5 points on philli's side but they still lose by more than a touchdown.
If Donovan is shutdown..which will be Belicheks plan..not westbrook.... by eliminating all his 5 and 7 step drops....the game is over ne blowout.

If t.o. attempts to play and really go for it you will probally see him re-injure himself and be out for next season....

i actually think NE will be up by 7-10 points at the half and blow them out in the second half.

[Zoltri]

[ QUOTE ]
Where did you get the data on 80% of the teams that cover outright win?

[/ QUOTE ]

The spread comes into play only 20%(approx) of the time.
-Fav wins and covers=50%(approx)
-Dog wins and covers=30%(approx)
-Dog loses but does cover=20%(approx)
Take a look at the percentages and you will notice a 50/50 split fav/dog ratio.

[Zoltri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, in fact, with the ML at +200, I'm starting to like that bet too, because I think the Eagles have more than a 33% chance of winning outright. Probably closer to 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]
They can win with no turnovers unlike Pittsburgh who basically handed them the game. Even with 4 TO, the Steelers made a game of it for 3.5 quarters.

[/ QUOTE ]

someday, people who don't know the Patriots will stop saying things like this, and start realizing that the Patriots are the ones causing other teams to make mistakes.

sigh.

[/ QUOTE ]
You must be from Boston?
I know the Patriots quite well....thank you. They have made me alot of money.

As far as the Pats/Steelers game is concerned, Ben was getting decent protection (only one sack) and to throw 3 INT without being pressured tells me he choked. You will, of course, look at it from your point of view.

Sigh

[StevieWonder]

Even if TO gets re-injured, how could he be out for a year? What possibly could happen to that ankle to make him out for 11+ months? Ridiculous.

You obviously have not seen the Eagles play. Take away 5 step drops? How do you take them away? The Eagles bootleg a ton, PA a ton..they don't strictly do these drops that you talk about. However, I'm sure you've never seen this because you are talkin' outta your ass.

[ QUOTE ]
The score of this game will be very similar to the score of the same match-up last year when they faced each other...maybe add 3-5 points on philli's side but they still lose by more than a touchdown.
If Donovan is shutdown..which will be Belicheks plan..not westbrook.... by eliminating all his 5 and 7 step drops....the game is over ne blowout.

If t.o. attempts to play and really go for it you will probally see him re-injure himself and be out for next season....

i actually think NE will be up by 7-10 points at the half and blow them out in the second half.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
You must be from Boston?
I know the Patriots quite well....thank you. They have made me alot of money.

As far as the Pats/Steelers game is concerned, Ben was getting decent protection (only one sack) and to throw 3 INT without being pressured tells me he choked. You will, of course, look at it from your point of view.

Sigh

[/ QUOTE ]

he was getting decent protection b/c the Pats were dropping 8 men into coverrage the whole game, forcing ben into mistakes. that's not a POV that's a fact.

[slogger]

I'm a novice when it comes to handicapping, but I thought the Eagles were an easy pick against the pathetic Vikes and the inexperienced Falcons. Sure, the Falcons defense was solid, but they're offense is so one-dimensional it's ridiculous.

The Patriots have every intangible going for them - experience, win one more for Charlie and Romeo, confidence that the breaks will go their way in a game of this magnitude. They are also the clearly superior team. Andy Reid and company have done an outstanding job and they will be back in the Bowl again, but they cannot hold a candle to Belichek, Weis and Crennel.

Comparing people taking the Pats -7 to the idiot masses who were jonesing over taking Minnesota and the points is absurd.

The Eagles have been impressive in the playoffs, but I doubt they'd even beat Indianapolis on a neutral field. The AFC is that much better this year.

CCx, I know it won't stop you from arguing your points, but you have proven to be way too emotionally invested to make any objective analysis of this game. (By the way, I hate all teams from Boston and most from Philly.)

I'll admit that I'm not as confident in this game as the Pats' last two matchups (in terms of the spread, I think 7 points is a lot), but I don't think Philly can win this game outright and I would not be surprised in the least if the Pats run the Eagles out of the building.

Pats -7 is the play (I like it that much better at -6, but Eagles +7 just looks like a sucker bet to me).

[slogger]

Some of the more experienced cappers please correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that the line is now at -7 because some of the sharper money went in on the Pats at -6 when the line opened.

As someone else mentioned, it appears that the books are trying to get more action on Philly.

I'm hoping that Philly announces that TO will play at some point in the next 7-8 days, and that the line dives to 5.5 or less. Then I'd be all over NE.

As of now, I am cautiously confident in NE -7.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
CCx, I know it won't stop you from arguing your points, but you have proven to be way too emotionally invested to make any objective analysis of this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to point something out, I was emotionally invested in the Minny and Atlanta games too (check the posts), and I cleaned up in those like nobody's business - even with a lot of people on the other side, or as some like to call it, the losing side.

Good luck to you in your wagers however!

[$DEADSEXE$]

You take away five step and 7 step drops by consistenly blitzing-regardless of the play action..i.e.-you play the pass on all downs and not play the run...which is what ne did last year when they played. The best way to beat the blitz is a 3 step drop with quick passes most notably the slant.
If you bothered to watch nfl primetime Tom Jackson and specifically mentioned that this will most liekly be Belicheks plan of attack because Westbrook is not as a big of a threat as Mcnabb.
Westbrook can have a huge game and the eagles will still lose. If Mcnabb has a huge game the eagles win.

I don't really like either team but compared to INdy or the Steelers the Eagles are a joke...the NFC has been at its weakest levels of competition in years...Are the Eagles good...yes---could they beat Indy or The Steelers ---No.
NE beat both those teams by more than 14 points....
I get betting wise taking INdy seeing that the last two NE sB wins were close...but unless your a big eagles fan, there is no reason to think the eagles are going to pulll of an upset.
The eagels are no better than carolina was last year and NE is a better team this year.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to point something out, I was emotionally invested in the Minny and Atlanta games too (check the posts), and I cleaned up in those like nobody's business - even with a lot of people on the other side, or as some like to call it, the losing side.

[/ QUOTE ]

It just so happens that your favorite team was the clearly best pick those weeks. I'm sure you're a fine hendicapper when Philly's not involved, but the fact that you picked those game correctly don't add any credibility for your Super Bowl pick unless those picks can be viewed alongside games where you picked the Eagles opponent to cover and they did.

You know what I mean. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
You know what I mean. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, just being a nit /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif