Biggest losing streak???

[meatballAK]

Was wondering if i could get a few replies from proven winning players letting sharing their bigest streak of finishes out of money?

No lying /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Thanks

[raptor517]

14. but i followed it up with 4 firsts in a row, so i was happy.

[daboze]

12.
and then ended up 1 for 18.

[ChrisV]

13.

Really not that unlikely, suppose your ITM% is a decent 40, then the odds of this happening on a given run of 13 is 0.13%, so you'd expect to see a streak like that once every 770 tourneys or so, yeah?

[ilya]

16, I think? could be 18, I forget.

[The Yugoslavian]

12 is my longest OOTM streak.

However, I'm currently in a 17 OOTM out of 18 (10 OOTM at one point) with only a 3rd place in between in $33 SNGs (technically this streak shouldn't count b/c I've played other limits successfully during this streak).

So, I decided to take a few days off and play limit ring games and I'm doing even worse in those! /images/graemlins/frown.gif (down 100 big blinds in fewer than 2k hands).

Perhaps last week I became the worst poker player ever!! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

I am currently investigating this hypothesis (mainly in my limit ring play) and outside of one horrendous play (that couldn't account for more than a couple lost BB) I seem to be doing moderately fine at worst (have only looked at 1/2 of my hands so far though).

Hey, I somehow was able to turn this into a quasi-bad beat post! My apologies, I think I needed a little vent, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[Mystic]

In my last 500 tournies (all $50 / $100 level), longest OTM streak was 13. Second longest was 11. This is with a ROI of just over 30%.

One word for sit n go's - streaky.

[OrcaDK]

9 OOTM, i just ended a streak of 46 SnG's without winning one.

[AleoMagus]

longest ever was 15 OOTM. I've done that twice.

The most frustrating streak I ever had was an over 200 tourney negative ROI streak which culminated in 7 consecutive 4th place finishes.

In theory, you should be able to calculate the kinds of streaks that you can expect in any size sample.

1/(%^N)=S

where,

% = OOTM% (or ITM%, or win%, or whatever you want to calcluate)
N = Number of consecutive streak finishes
S = Sample

So, if you want to know how often you will see a 13 tourney OOTM streak and you finish ITM 40% of the time (and OOTM 60% of the time),

1/(.6^13) = 765.7

So, about every 766 tourneys, you will experience a 13 tourney OOTM streak.

Of course, in reality, this is often not entirely true, as we tend to actually play differently when we are in the midst of a really good or bad streak and this can affect future outcomes. I suspect that most people actually have slightly longer consecutive winning and losing streaks than the math would suggest. This is also due to the fact that many things which affect one SNG result will also affext the SNGs clustered around it. For example, many fish playing on a very busy day, being in a good state of mind that day, or any number of other things.

To illustrate, consider my 7 consecutive 4ths. Normally my 4th place % is about 13.5%. To see 7 in a row,

1/(.135^7) = 1223668

I'd need to on average play over a million SNGs. Well, obviously, I have not played that many SNGs but this happened. So either I was just really unlucky, or more likely, I was psychologically undermining my bubble play after the first couple bubble losses.

Regards
Brad S

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
longest ever was 15 OOTM. I've done that twice.

The most frustrating streak I ever had was an over 200 tourney negative ROI streak which culminated in 7 consecutive 4th place finishes.

In theory, you should be able to calculate the kinds of streaks that you can expect in any size sample.

1/(%^N)=S

where,

% = OOTM% (or ITM%, or win%, or whatever you want to calcluate)
N = Number of consecutive streak finishes
S = Sample

So, if you want to know how often you will see a 13 tourney OOTM streak and you finish ITM 40% of the time (and OOTM 60% of the time),

1/(.6^13) = 765.7

So, about every 766 tourneys, you will experience a 13 tourney OOTM streak.

Of course, in reality, this is often not entirely true, as we tend to actually play differently when we are in the midst of a really good or bad streak and this can affect future outcomes. I suspect that most people actually have slightly longer consecutive winning and losing streaks than the math would suggest. This is also due to the fact that many things which affect one SNG result will also affext the SNGs clustered around it. For example, many fish playing on a very busy day, being in a good state of mind that day, or any number of other things.

To illustrate, consider my 7 consecutive 4ths. Normally my 4th place % is about 13.5%. To see 7 in a row,

1/(.135^7) = 1223668

I'd need to on average play over a million SNGs. Well, obviously, I have not played that many SNGs but this happened. So either I was just really unlucky, or more likely, I was psychologically undermining my bubble play after the first couple bubble losses.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

heeeeeyyyyyy .. . .know i know why you haven't been around. Forget all of this talk about spreadsheets and confidence percentages, you've been filming that rediculous CBS show "Numb3rs", haven't you? The guy who solves murders with math. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

It's a little off thread, but I'll take this opportunity to thank you (and the many others) for the spreadsheet. It's goot!

[Barcalounger]

I'm far from a proven player, but I just had my personal worst 11 game streak last night on the party 33s. Either I've sprouted gills or these games have started to be extremely hard to crack in the last week. I would think that frequently seeing IrieGuy and lorinda at my tables is one reason except that I don't make a habit of getting into hands with either. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[kevstreet]

My longest OTM streak is around 12-15. Just as frustrating Saturday I had a streak of 7 straight OTM but 5 of them I finished in 4th. I was playing aggressive on the bubble for the first 3 then I tried limping just to get in the money... nothing worked.

[El Maximo]

My longest OTM has only been 9 but I have been going through a very frustrating run lately. Looks something like this:

9 OTM
1 3rd Place (Thank god that bad run is over)
7 OTM
1 3rd Place (Thank god this is finally turning around)
6 OTM
3 4th places
1 1st place ( I rule! Time to make up some losses)
8 OTM ( #@#$@#$, @#$@#$, @#$@#$, @#$@#$)
Kick the dog a few times.
1 3rd place ( Feel bad for kicking my dog)
6 OTM ( Wheres that damn dog at?)

[MrMon]

Like a lot of our other regulars who are proven winners, I've been going through a really rotten spell also. I've also noticed a lot of bad play lately from people I've never seen, even at the $30 and $20 level, so is this a "Tilt" effect?

Real example: Day after the latest "Tilt" episode, I'm playing 89o in the BB. 10/20 blinds 4 limpers. Check. Flop goes something like 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet about 2/3 the pot, 75 or so. Everyone folds, except for the last player, who bets 200. I fold, of course, as it's not worth it, then the idiot actually shows 74o. I said "NB, but that was a stupid move to show." Reply is "I just wanted to make you feel like a fool." My response: "You've been watching too much Tilt." His response was unprintable.

The irony is, when he went all-in with QQ later, someone thought it was a bluff, they called with AJ and sucked out on him on the turn. Never forget about table image.

My thought is there is a "Tilt" effect and I've adopted the appropriate defense. It's helped.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I said "NB, but that was a stupid move to show." Reply is "I just wanted to make you feel like a fool." My response: "You've been watching too much Tilt." His response was unprintable.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just be careful not to tap the fish tank too much.

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

My first 200 1 tabled and 150 quad tabled $50's SNG's had a 20% ROI with a good 1-2-3 distribution, and everything looked OK.

My last 85 have been at -40% with a 2-7-13 1-2-3 distribution and a couple of 12 OOTM's thrown in there.

It may be the quad tabling - I'm not really sure - but analyzing the numbers, it seems like some questionable play on maybe 10-15 game ending hands coupled with the worst card run/bad beat run I've ever been on. I don't think I have a single big pair that's earning >.5 BB over that timespan, for instance.

Funny thing is, with rakeback I'm still even for the month. SNG's are nice that way. But for the time being, I'm sticking to the Steps where a bad beat/bad quad table play is costing me 1/4 as much.

[Vetstadium]

Mine is around 12 in a row too then I always start to think maybe I am not that good blah blah blah. Hard to realize but it is part of the game. I keep track on blocks of a hundreds then 500's. I've only had one negative ROI for a hundred block so far out of 11 so even if some are minimal ROI still not losing
/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Delphin]

Thanks to those who responded about their OOTM streaks. I haven't been playing long enough to have experienced one of those 12-18 SNG streaks yet.

I'd like to hear about ITM streaks. Anyone?

[ilya]

I just had a 10 OOTM streak, and I decided to plug it into your formula to see how often it should happen. I used 60% ITM to be safe, even though I'm 41.7% ITM over the last 600 tournaments. The result surprised me: apparently, I should expect a 10 OOTM streak as often as every 165 tournaments.
So, a streak that seems, subjectively, almost as bad as 13 OOTM, is actually MUCH more common (by a factor of about 4.6).
If I use my actual OOTM figure over the last 600, it looks like this streak should happen every 220 tournaments. Still looks ok, as I've only had 2 like this over the last 615 tournaments. Which brings me to my question, for the statisticians out there: what sample size do you need before the frequency of X-OOTM streaks becomes predictive of future ITM performance?

[MrMon]

[ QUOTE ]

Just be careful not to tap the fish tank too much.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. But anyone who makes a play based on a TV show is pretty hard to tap, especially when they're proud of it.

[climber]

18 OOTM...After the 17th OOTM finish I started playing it up at the table asking things like "hey can anyone beat 17OOTM finishes?" hoping people would be merciful at bubble time--then I got dealt JJ 3 hands in a row and took first to finally break the cold spell.

But then I may be a fish--23% ROI 38% ITM over my first 100.
My last 50 tourneys I have a -2% ROI and a 30% ITM.

[climber]

Sorry I just saw the part about "proven winning players" feel free to discount my reply.

[McBandit]

I just had an ITM streak of 13 while 4-tabling the $20+2s. My best ever after about 1000 tourneys at various levels. 1-2-3 breakdown was 2-9-2. I was running/playing well until HU when I couldn't catch a break...no complaints though, since I won some key races near the bubble.

McBandit

[Ship_it_tome]

I have never placed in a tourney,(lol) i feel i am one of the better players out there, and my losing streak reaches all the way to 22, that was 33 dollar tourneys, after that my roi was still above 18%. My best itm streak is 14, playin 55 dollar tourneys with 8 wins. During that span, my showdown percentage was around 90%. UNBELIEVABLE

[willie]

i dropped 400 yesterday 3 tablin, 2 30s and 1 20 at a time...

88 an hour

4 hours of misery.
- ok, a little less than 400...gimme a break.

prior to that i was slaughtering....sometimes longshots come in in succession and just beat the crap out of you- poker can be tough.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
i dropped 400 yesterday 3 tablin, 2 30s and 1 20 at a time...

88 an hour

4 hours of misery.
- ok, a little less than 400...gimme a break.

prior to that i was slaughtering....sometimes longshots come in in succession and just beat the crap out of you- poker can be tough.

[/ QUOTE ]

the weekday game is just horrible, after I collect 1k over the weekend, I managed to breakeven yesterday at 20s and made 10buyin at 10s. I kind of thinking drop a buyin during weekdays to save my 45%+ ROI at 20s. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif