theoretical question concerning football

[TStoneMBD]

sometimes when i watch a game i get so frustrated because i see a coach make such a fundamentally incorrect decision that it drives me insane. maybe i just dont understand the complexities, and im willing to accept that if that is truly the case. can anyone argue my standpoint here?

steelers vs patriots:

steelers are down by 14 points at the start of the 4th quarter. they are standing at the 2 yard goal line at 4th down. they have the option of going for the td or kicking the field goal. if they kick the field goal, they will need to make another field goal, along with a touchdown, and a two point conversion.

what do they do, they kick a field goal.

"WHAT ARE YOU DOING??!!" I scream at the tv.

How can their decision be correct? Because they declined running it in for the 2 yards, they are forcing themselves to make an extra field goal, and when they complete their needed touchdown later in the quarter, they are going to have to complete the 2 point conversion anyway! either way you look at it, they are going to have to run it in the end zone for 2 yards. all their decision did for them was force them to kick an extra field goal.

to make matters even worse, the commentator fully agreed with the coach's choice.

am i completely off my rocker, or is the NFL merely paying millions of dollars to the most incompetent buffoons on the planet??

[theyweresuited]

exactly what i was thinking...any answers????

[ucfryan]

It wasn't so much the decision to kick the field goal as it was to throw the fade on 2nd down to Plex. You have one of the best offensive lines in the game, you have 4 downs to put it in the endzone, you have two hard nosed RBs in Staley and Bettis who should be able to pound it in, for the love of God pound it.

[Stork]

Because the Patriots defense owns, and 3 points is better than none /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[umdpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
It wasn't so much the decision to kick the field goal as it was to throw the fade on 2nd down to Plex. You have one of the best offensive lines in the game, you have 4 downs to put it in the endzone, you have two hard nosed RBs in Staley and Bettis who should be able to pound it in, for the love of God pound it.



[/ QUOTE ]

yup, that was retarded. let bettis run up the middle, make a big hole, and then have staley run it in behind him. also, if you don't score on 4th down, the pats are stuck at the 2 yard line!!!! with the steelers defense, this has safety written all over it. all that being said, i really do think that the patriots are a better team.

[LinusKS]

With three points on the board, two TDs wins the game. If they try to drive it in, and fail, they could go on to score two more TDs and still lose in OT.

[Jman28]

I think a lot of coaches don't understand this part of the game very well.

When it comes to going for it on 4th, kicking feild goals/punting, going for two, etc., I think that I would make better decisions than most NFL coaches because of common sense and background as a gambler.

It really is like gambling in a sense. I think that teams should hire a 'decision maker' for situations like these as another assistent coach.

-Jman28

[jdl22]

A bigger problem was the third down call. I think they should have thrown or ran some sort of designed draw (probably thrown as NE had stacked the line) if they were planning on kicking on 4th and goal from the 3 or 4. The chances of getting a TD on that 3rd down call are not very good. I thought the run was a good call just to get them closer for a 4th down attempt but was surprised to see the kick.

[Ghazban]

The short answer is that, if you fail to score and the Pats score a FG on their next possession, you are down 3 scores (17 points) whereas, if you kick the FG, you can give up a FG and still be within 2 scores. Furthermore, if you kick the FG and stop the Pats, you can tie with a FG+TD+2 pt. conversion (2 scores) or take the lead with 2 TDs. I don't think its obvious that you should kick rather than go for the TD there but its not idiotic to do so.

[TStoneMBD]

for the posters who wanted to argue about the pass, you dont belong here. whether that play is correct or not is entirely a matter or opinion. unless you want to mathematically prove that the play was the wrong one, which i know you cant, youre just another fan disagreeing with an nfl coach with no background experience.

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
for the posters who wanted to argue about the pass, you dont belong here. whether that play is correct or not is entirely a matter or opinion. unless you want to mathematically prove that the play was the wrong one, which i know you cant, youre just another fan disagreeing with an nfl coach with no background experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, isn't your disagreeing with the decision to kick the FG the *exact same thing*??? Unless you're like a part time NFL assistant coach or something.

[TStoneMBD]

no its not, my theory can be argued with a mathematical expression, his cannot be. its a significant difference.

[parachute]

For those who are interested in this sort of analysis, there's plenty of it at footballcommentary.com (http://footballcommentary.com).

There's a general pattern in that coaches will generally not make the higher EV choice in these sorts of situation if it's perceived as risky. It's not clear whether it's because they haven't analyzed the problem fully or if they're just risk-averse.

[Boltsfan1992]

Hiya -

Sometimes, I think coaches make decisions based on future public opinion or future considerations. They'll never admit it, but I think they hear the noise if they risk and fail. I would say better to risk at the right moment going for the win at all costs. Based on the time left, going for the touchdown was the correct play and I was disappointed they did not choose this option.

However, the common sense decision is getting the points any way possible and if they tried for the touchdown and failed, the press/fans would have had a field day. Also, if the field goal held up, and the Steelers would have been able to pull out a victory, then the decision to kick would be heralded by the fans/media as the greatest call ever made.

I would have still disagreed. Even though the Packers stunk this year (notably the defensive secondary) at least Sherman was willing to risk every now and then with Number 4 as his quarterback.

I'll be playing poker superbowl Sunday. Consider me un-American, but Philly and New England do not interst me much...

PB

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
also, if you don't score on 4th down, the pats are stuck at the 2 yard line!!!! with the steelers defense, this has safety written all over it. all that being said, i really do think that the patriots are a better team.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point, and reminds me of this item which I found interesting:

It's Fourth Down... (http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf)

[Stickmn24]

I have to believe the Steelers' failed try on 4th and 1 earlier in the game played into Cowher's decision. He probably didn't think he could get the TD.

[drexah]

yes, the decision to throw it to burress on 2nd was awful. but the FG isn't a poor decision IMO. if they miss the TD (which was VERY liable to happen with the way the pats D was playing), there down 14 points giving the pats the ball on the 2, and Bill Cower knows the Pats. Last week against the Colts the Pats had TWO 9-10 minute 80+ yard drives. what do they do if the pats take it down the field, with momentum from the stop, go 8+ minutes and kick a fg/td? then they are COMPLETELY out of the game. even if they miss the TD, then stop the pats, theres at least 3-4 minutes taken off the clock, they might get decent field position at best but their drive will take a few minutes off the clock, then give the ball back to pats with around 7 minutes left. thats best case scenario. they kick the FG, get some momentum, make a stop and score, theres still some time left and they have great momentum at their home field. Btw, the coach of the steelers, how long do you think hes been coaching? do you really think he hasnt seen this exact situation many times before? hes a friking professional coach i think he has a lot of reasons behind his decision.

[mojorisin24]

That play was especially brutal because the Steelers fans literally did not cheer when the field goal went through- the place just fell silent. That was where I thought the play hurt the most, because Cowher took his own fans out of the game with that call.

[jaybee_70]

This study says you should attempt a 4th down conversion from your own 10 yard line if it's 3 yards or less.

Joe