Keeping track of suckouts vs miracle card on river?

[AA suited]

Has anyone tried to keep track of when the opponent sucks out on you and when you get the miracle card on the river?

And as a further breakdown, how many times was the suck out detrimental (ie: eliminated you) and how many times the miracle card saved you from being completely eliminated?

[Mr_J]

No, but I do keep track of the deciding hands (ie when i get knocked out caught stealing, a all-in showdown etc) and if I played well HU (ie deserved or lucky). Also note if the sng was card dry.

Doesn't really take any time at all, but I'm thinking it'll be handy when I hit a long losing patch or something.

[ChrisV]

No, because it'd be a complete waste of time.

[bigredlemon]

because as a good player, you'd want to only be all in with the best hand (or at least very good pot odds.)

So you should almost never have the chance to suck out on someone, while everyone else has the chance to suck out on you.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Has anyone tried to keep track of when the opponent sucks out on you and when you get the miracle card on the river?

And as a further breakdown, how many times was the suck out detrimental (ie: eliminated you) and how many times the miracle card saved you from being completely eliminated?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can save you the trouble, because the the answer to this question was figured out in approximately the 6th century B.C. (maybe earlier, but that's about the first time there is a written record of it.)

If there are 44 cards left in the deck, and a player needs a single card to come on the river in order for them to win the hand, they will succeed one time in 44 tries on average.

Interestingly, it doesn't matter whether that player is you, or an opponent. You will both hit your 43:1 shot one time in 44 tries on average.

Don't make Pythagoras turn in his grave by trying to solve these problems empirically with a pencil and PartyPoker's random number generator.

Irieguy

[bigredlemon]

I think this was an attempt to determine whether a recent series of failures was the result of poor skill, or if it could be pinned on bad luck. After all, you won't hit your one outter exactly every 43rd time.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
After all, you won't hit your one outter exactly every 43rd time.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you won't. You will hit it exactly every 44th time. This brings up a common misperception in gambling: the difference between "odds" and "chances." With 44 cards in the deck, the odds of a one-outer coming are 43:1. The chance that it will hit is 1 in 44. It's easy to see the difference here, but the mistake becomes more common when you start talking about odds like 3:1. The chance of a 3:1 shot hitting is 1 in 4, but you will often see people describe a 3:1 shot as having a 33% chance.

Vegas takes advantage of this misperception by expressing some of their craps pay-outs as chances and others as odds. For example, the board will say that Big Red pays 5 for 1. That seems better than 4 to 1 to some people.

But you do bring up a very good point that is often discussed here: how do you tell if you are running badly or playing badly? My opinion is that there are 4 useful ways to tell the difference:

1. Keep good records, and after a significant number of trials all doubt will be gone.

2. Have a good player review several of your hand histories and tell you if you are playing badly or not.

3. Every time you call a significant bet, record the hand. You should have the best hand the overwhelming majority of the time.

4. This is a good one if you don't have poker tracker: Click you your stats page on your avatar and keep it open in the corner of your screen. You can see your "flops seen%," "win % if flops seen," and "showdowns won percentage."

Your "flops seen %" should be +/- 1% after you've played over 1000 hands. If your % varies widely, you stink at SNGs. Also, I believe there is a correct %.

If your "win % of flops seen" is less than 35%, you are running very badly.

If your "showdowns won %" is over 70%, you are running very good.

A good, experienced player will know if they are running badly or playing badly. But until you get to that point, it may be helpful to look at some of these other methods.

Irieguy

[ChrisV]

Good god, no. I suck out on people constantly.

I would estimate that I am allin with a worse hand about 50% of the time.

[bigredlemon]

Hands won: 6%
Showdown won: 40%
Flops seen: 26%
Win if flop seen: 17%


what do you make of this?

bad play or bad luck?

ps: just as I'm typing this message
<font color="white"> my dominating pair got rivered by two pair. Arrrg!
</font>

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Hands won: 6%
Showdown won: 40%
Flops seen: 26%
Win if flop seen: 17%


what do you make of this?

bad play or bad luck?


[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of both.

Irieguy

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
Your "flops seen %" should be +/- 1% after you've played over 1000 hands. If your % varies widely, you stink at SNGs. Also, I believe there is a correct %.

[/ QUOTE ]

+/- 1% of what?
10%? 20%? 30?
Some other number that is specific to a particular player?

Mine seems to be about 29%, what is yours?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


+/- 1% of what?
10%? 20%? 30?
Some other number that is specific to a particular player?

Mine seems to be about 29%, what is yours?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather leave open for debate what the "correct" % is. But I will tell you this: if your % of flops seen is 29%, you are losing a lot of money playing SNGs. (Unless you are one of Gigabet's brothers.)

Irieguy

[r2p]

Is that All Hands or Flop not a blind ? I am 30% all Hands but 18% Not a Blind

[bigredlemon]

Care to explain what you think is out of line?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Care to explain what you think is out of line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Flops seen %. If you are seeing 26% of the flops, you are playing a different sport than I am. I consider post-flop play to be one of my strenghts, but if I saw that many flops in SNGs I'd certainly be a loser.

Irieguy

[bigredlemon]

What kind of stats do you generally have?

[r2p]

I should add 2800 hands, all $5 and $10 SnG on Party.