Short and sweet. Do you call?

[TylerD]

7 left, blinds 50-100. I raise my 77 to 300 with ~ 1200 chips from EP. BB calls with ~ 3600 chips. BB goes all-in on flop of 2S,JD,5S. No read on BB, do you call?

[HUSKER'66]

[ QUOTE ]
7 left, blinds 50-100. I raise my 77 to 300 with ~ 1200 chips from EP. BB calls with ~ 3600 chips. BB goes all-in on flop of 2S,JD,5S. No read on BB, do you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well TD, you raised 25% of your stack preflop, and now there's 72% (650t to your 900t) in the middle not counting his push. I realize he has you covered but if you called and won you'd be sitting at a little over double what you started with before your preflop raise. (2450t)

I know your going to hate this, but what are the others at stack wise? How did villian accumulate his 3600t? Raw aggression, bluff bets, or solid hands/play? He might make a move like this on a flush draw and figures he can bully you out of the pot. Not that it would make much difference but do you have a 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

I'm thinking he's drawing....if he had a made hand, he would bet less or check raise in order to get your stack. Hell maybe I'm wrong, but I think you're ahead here. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Husker

[TylerD]

[ QUOTE ]
I know your going to hate this, but what are the others at stack wise? How did villian accumulate his 3600t?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't rememeber either I'm afraid (I didn't know the answer to the 2nd question at the time either). Although I decided that I was going to have to something soon as the limits were going up and I was fairly short stacked (this was 10 handed 1500 starting chips).

I had also decided that I wanted to either double up, steal the blind or bust out with my hand. Is it too early to think that?

[Theprofessional]

The problem is the initial raise from that position. Limping is better and the standard way to play in this situation. You really need to either play for a set (limp) or a blind steal which with this sort of hand (inevitable overcards on flop) is all-in. Problem is the blinds don't really justify an all-in here so overall I say you should limp.

In the situation you mention, I would probably call but dependent on my read on the other guy. You say you have no read but you have seen him win substantial chips so must have some opinion on this.

The reason I call is that he might well think you have overcards, have missed and he can bluff you out.

[jd2b2006]

I agree with Husker. Villain is most likely drawing and is just trying to push you out. When I have seen this situation, the big stack is doing this without a made hand so I would probably call.

As to being in the mindset of going all the way with this hand, I would say you should not set your mind to this no matter what the flop. After raising, you either have 900 or 1200 chips (I cannot tell from the first post), so I figure you are most likley not that far from third place. You still have room to double up in a better situation.

[ilya]

What buy-in is this, and where?

edit:
On 2nd thought, could you just dig up & post the HH? It's not much effort to ask for in return for the brilliant advice we give /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[TylerD]

So you don't like the short and sweet huh? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

It was a $33 on PokerRoom. PokerRoom don't provide hand history by email and I didn't save the hand...but if 2+2 asks 2+2 receives. So after a dig through my cache I found it:

Seat 1: anfield69 ($2,060 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero [7D,7H] ($1,190 in chips)
Seat 4: Bokenwolves ($2,807 in chips)
Seat 5: yahboohoo ($3,896 in chips)
Seat 6: marlowbeach ($1,075 in chips)
Seat 7: TheKid59 ($3,612 in chips)
Seat 10: Camjam ($360 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
marlowbeach posts blind ($50), TheKid59 posts blind ($100).

PRE-FLOP
Camjam folds, anfield69 folds, Hero bets $325, Bokenwolves folds, yahboohoo folds, marlowbeach folds, TheKid59 calls $225.

FLOP [board cards 2S,JD,5S ]
TheKid59 bets $865, Hero ?

As you can see I was relativly short stacked and approaching the blind which will either be 100 or more likely 150. Sometimes I will muck 77 in this situation, sometimes raise. I don't think I would ever limp at this stage.

[codewarrior]

Preflop push or fold.

[Strollen]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I would ever limp at this stage

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not limp from EP when you have more than 10x BB. If you limped you'd likely have one or two more callers, although possibly the BB has a big pair and would raise it preflop. But than his all-in bet would mean I have top pair beat.
He probably wouldn't bluff all in against 2 or 3 callers.

If he checks than you either check or bet 2/3 of the pot say 250 with a single over card.

[byronkincaid]

I raise to 275 and then fold to his all in. He could easily have a J and is scared of the possible flush draw.

[TylerD]

Byron,

What about pre-flop?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I would ever limp at this stage

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not limp from EP when you have more than 10x BB. If you limped you'd likely have one or two more callers, although possibly the BB has a big pair and would raise it preflop. But than his all-in bet would mean I have top pair beat.
He probably wouldn't bluff all in against 2 or 3 callers.

If he checks than you either check or bet 2/3 of the pot say 250 with a single over card.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Limping is bad.

It's too expensive, there's no guarantee one of the four players yet to act won't raise, it's less likely than it would have been earlier that the CO and button will limp, and the SB and BB aren't paying you off with their random hands. If someone behind you does call, you're out of position with a marginal pair, a great situation for making expensive ToP 'mistakes' on the flop.

Raising not only gives you the opporunity to steal the sizeable blinds immediately, but also makes it much more likely that you will have position on the flop. This is extremely important for a hand like 77. Also, raising reduces the chance that you'll be forced off your hand pre-flop by a weaker hand.

[ilya]

Call & see a turn. Check/fold if it's unfavorable. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
So you don't like the short and sweet huh? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

It was a $33 on PokerRoom. PokerRoom don't provide hand history by email and I didn't save the hand...but if 2+2 asks 2+2 receives. So after a dig through my cache I found it:

Seat 1: anfield69 ($2,060 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero [7D,7H] ($1,190 in chips)
Seat 4: Bokenwolves ($2,807 in chips)
Seat 5: yahboohoo ($3,896 in chips)
Seat 6: marlowbeach ($1,075 in chips)
Seat 7: TheKid59 ($3,612 in chips)
Seat 10: Camjam ($360 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
marlowbeach posts blind ($50), TheKid59 posts blind ($100).

PRE-FLOP
Camjam folds, anfield69 folds, Hero bets $325, Bokenwolves folds, yahboohoo folds, marlowbeach folds, TheKid59 calls $225.

FLOP [board cards 2S,JD,5S ]
TheKid59 bets $865, Hero ?

As you can see I was relativly short stacked and approaching the blind which will either be 100 or more likely 150. Sometimes I will muck 77 in this situation, sometimes raise. I don't think I would ever limp at this stage.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the raise fine.

On the flop...well, let's see. The pot's laying you a great price, 1.8:1...so even if you think he probably has you beaten it's worth sorting out the various possibilities before making a decision.

What are the hands he could have here?

The most obvious answer is that he has a flush draw. It would make perfect sense for him to make this agressive semi-bluff, as even if you call, the pot is giving him the right price most of the time. He would make this play whether or not he was tricky. I'd say there's an excellent chance he has a flush draw, maybe as high as 30-40%. Also, if he has a flush draw, it's at least even money that he has only 3 non-flush outs against you.

Notice that if he is indeed on a flush draw, it's very unlikely that he also has a pair of Jacks. Why? Well, top pair + flush draw is such a strong hand that he would want to give you a chance to bet instead of shutting you out. He would only make this play if he was tricky, and then only if he thought you would oversimplify and put him on "flush draw."

Two pair is very unlikely because of the preflop action and the texture of the flop, and I think he would only play it this way about half the time. People overvalue 2 pair & like to trap with it...but he may not be one of those people, and the flush draw may scare him.

He may have a set that he's betting this way to protect against the flush draw or represent a flush draw himself if he thinks you'll read him for that. I don't think this is too likely. He would probably re-raise preflop with JJ. He might well fold 22 and even 55 to your preflop raise, although I'm guessing he'll call often with those hands. Also, the two strong urges to check to the PF raiser & to slowplay a set argue against the likelihood of him having such a holding.

He could be bluffing with overcards, gambling that you raised with AK/AQ/AT/Axs/KQ/KT, or perhaps a small pair that you would also fold. Hard to say how likely this is without knowing more about the player, and what he thinks about you. What kinds of hands does he think you're raising with preflop? What kinds of hands does he think you'll call with on the flop? Has he been playing agressively on the flop? Still, I think there's got to be at least a 10-15% chance that he's doing just that.

He could be betting a bare pair of Jacks, but I doubt it...it makes more sense for him to check & call your likely all-in with that hand. However, if he thinks you're a passive flop player who's likely to check behind with overcards or a flush draw, then it's more likely that he has a pair of Jacks.

He could have a big pair, I suppose, if he's tricky like that. Do you think he's the kind of player who might flat-call closing the action preflop with AA/KK? QQ seems very unlikely to me; who wouldn't re-raise with it preflop?

A bigger underpair (TT-77) is a worrisome possibility. He might well play it this way both preflop and postflop.

On the balance, I think you're getting a good enough price to call here....not sure though.

[ChrisV]

Those advocating limping or pushing preflop are wrong. You might consider folding but it would be rather tight. I like a raise to 300 here.

Postflop I call in a heartbeat. That would be a strange way for him to play a jack, although he might have a weak jack. I'm a bit worried about 88 or 99 though.

[Michael C.]

Why is this such a strange way to play a jack? 1) There's a good change you're going to put him on a flush draw and call with something like AK. I love going all-in with top pair when there's a draw on the board. Most of the time you get a call with as bad as a high ace. Sometimes people in this spot will call your all-in bet when they wouldn't call a $300 bet which would pot commit them anyway. 2) He can take the pot down right now and not have to worry about overcards. I'm sure I've missed something here like usual, but why is all-in with a jack a bad play? Notice that the all-in bet did encourage most of you to call.

[TylerD]

I agree that limping is wrong for the reasons that ilya states. Raising all-in is likely to get hands that dominate you to call but not much else (except AK, maybe AQ).

I thought it was a pretty easy call on the flop he could have a J but he could have overcards or a flush draw, and given the size of the pot I thought calling was the best option. This time he happened to have KTs and he didn't improve.

[ChrisV]

There's no way I'm calling with AK on this board, because even against a flush draw - something like T9s - I'm behind, and versus a pair I'm miles behind.

The allin bet didnt encourage me to call exactly. I'm just always allin on this flop.

Also note the distinction between what you think would be a good way to play a jack and how people actually play jacks. I happen to think raising with JJ on Level 1 is a bad idea, but that doesn't stop me rating JJ as a pretty unlikely hand for someone to hold when they limp.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop push or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

perhaps some reasoning behind why you think this is the best line.

i think that pushing as your only raise size with >11 bb is a bad idea.

citanul

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop push or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

perhaps some reasoning behind why you think this is the best line.

i think that pushing as your only raise size with >11 bb is a bad idea.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's "bad" per se. 87.8% of the time none of the 4 players behind you will have a higher pair. So, even if you only broke even that 87.8% of the time, you would only lose

(-1200)(0.122)(0.81) + (1250)(0.122)(0.19) =~ -119 + 29 = -90.

However, you're obviously doing better than breaking even the other 87.8% of the time. Also, your bet is large enough that you will sometimes get a better pair to fold. On the whole, I'm sure you show a slight profit overall. And while it may not be the most +$EV play, pushing has other advantages: it eliminates the possibility of a ToP postflop 'mistake,' and ensures that you won't come out of the hand with an awkward, no-room-to-maneuver 9xbb stack.