Pocket Aces in big trouble

[Massad]

<font color="blue"> Just sat down on this table not much of a read on either opponent. They did look much looser than average Party 3/6 player (especially UTG). CO seemed more agressive than usual too. </font>

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (14.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

<font color="blue"> I actually thought that I could have the best hand here but the threat of 3-betting was too menacing to raise in this situation. So I decided just to call closing off the action. </font>

River: (16.16 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 20.16 BB

<font color="blue"> This is where I have the most trouble. While it's very unlikely I would win this pot, I was getting more than 9 to 1 on my money. Would anybody call here?

Comments on any streets is appreciated. </font>

[captZEEbo1]

I doubt you're up against AK (probably would've capped preflop, no?) A logical flop hand for CO COULD be KT, by the river, he is probably not still raising that though. I think you're easily behind to two pair here.

[adamstewart]

You played it just fine.

When the action is to you initially on the flop, you can't fold - CO could easily have AK or AQ, etc. I like the the 3-bet as it may push UTG out.

When CO caps, though, you've go to think you're behind.

Your call on the turn is find because you still have about 4 effective outs with 14:1 money for the call.

Fold the river, as it's two bets back to you, AND as we've already discussed, you're very, very likely behind.

Adam

[nnoobi]

I would have played it just as you did.

The flop action indicated you were behind. The turn call was cheap. I probably would have cried my way to calling a single bet on the river.

It seems like UTG has KQ or QJ (KJs is a possibiliy) and CO has flopped a set - likely jacks.

rabbit

[Massad]

UTG had KTo for a pair of Kings. CO had AJo for a pair of Jacks. Turn out that I did fold the best hand but looking at the situation I think the fold was justified.

[adamstewart]

That's too bad.

Just remember, more times than not, you're going to lose this hand, as discussed above - and *that* is what matters, not the results of this indivual hand.

Good Luck.

Adam

[dr_emok]

Whether you're going to lose this hand more often then you're not is definitely NOT what matters, as that would suggest that you have to win it 50% of the time to make the call profitable. That is not the case here. Remember this: If you only have to pay 1 tenth of what you can win on the river, you are almost always correct to call if you have top pair or better. More than 10% of the times you will win if you have gone this far, presumed that you didn't make a mistake earlier. (Exception if there are 4 to a flush or a straight.)

In this case though, it's a bit harder to decide. CO raises on the river and the pot is lying only 1 to 9. Though... CO only calls the turn after capping the flop and exposing a lot of strength. UTG doesn't raise PF and only calls down on the flop. The poster of this hand thought that he had the best hand on the turn. You can't assume it to be in much worse shape just because of a single raise on the river. I definitely think that this one will win at least 1/8 of the times and I would call every time!

But that is not really the most important thing here. The turn and river are blanks. If you do not think that you could have the best hand unimproved by the river 1/8 of the times, even when your opponents have had about NO chance to improve, then WHY THE HELL ARE YOU PAYING TO SEE MORE CARDS WHEN YOU'RE DRAWING TO 6 OUTS, AND 4 OF THEM COULD SPLIT THE POT!? You are paying lots and lots of more money for drawing to these outs than you are for being in at a showdown where your opponents, almost for sure, haven't improved.

This hand can be played two ways, in my opinion. Either just drop it on the flop after the raise. Do this if you are pretty sure that one of your opponents already have a made hand. Otherwise, hang in there and hope that your aces hold up or that a ten comes along. I would go for the latter. The flop 3-bet is, in my opinion, only ok if the intention is to expose a bluff and win the pot directly on the turn or at least knock someone out.

Please comment on this if you think that I'm completely wrong or if you have something to add.

[adamstewart]

I apologize for my poor choice of words.

Let me try again: "Given the way the hand was played, I do not feel the Hero will win this hand the required 1 in 8 times he needs to in order to break even."

By the way, folding on the flop is wrong. An arguement could, however, be made for folding the turn.

Cue the JoeTall.... "Welcome to the forums."


Adam

[ErrantNight]

i think whatever argument that is would be, um, bad.

closing the action, getting those odds? even if he's drawing to a split it's probably fine. but he thinks he's ahead. i think a much stronger argument could be made for a turn raise here. i think folding is clearly the worst of your three options.

i think the river fold is close. odds are close, and there've been two blanks... but it could get 3-bet, and CO played this the way a lot o' people do... call on the turn to induce the overcall, raise the river when they're afraid the overcall won't come.

i think what makes the situation fishy is UTG who just called the flop 3-bet despite no indication that either of the two existing aggressors had any interest in slowing down. given that CO is overly aggressive, and UTG is overly loose, I think both calling the river and raising the turn are merit-worthy arguments.

That said, this is a scary board, aside from the T which gives you a likely split, you're not sure which of your outs are any good. If you think you're ahead on the flop and turn, nothing has changed, find a call or a raise. If you think you're behind, fine.

[Monty Cantsin]

[ QUOTE ]
...CO played this the way a lot o' people do... call on the turn to induce the overcall, raise the river when they're afraid the overcall won't come.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this pattern is all that common. If he's so concerned with keeping you in why did he raise the flop in front of you? No, the raise on the river is very suspicious to me.

Unfortunately, the results have already been posted so this cloud chamber is closed to us now. But reading the hand I immediately thought that the river raise was designed to make us fold. Still don't know if I would call, because it's hard to put UTG on less than two pair.

I think what happened is that CO has some good reads here - he thinks UTG is an idiot and he thinks hero is very tight. When hero 3-bets pre-flop and flop but just calls the turn CO puts him squarely on AA or AK so he made a move on the river. If he thinks he's ahead of UTG half the time and hero will fold half the time then this is a very good move.

Hero got entangled - both opponents had pair + straight draw and both of them decided to overplay them simultaneously. Very interesting hand.

/mc

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...CO played this the way a lot o' people do... call on the turn to induce the overcall, raise the river when they're afraid the overcall won't come.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this pattern is all that common. If he's so concerned with keeping you in why did he raise the flop in front of you? No, the raise on the river is very suspicious to me.

Unfortunately, the results have already been posted so this cloud chamber is closed to us now. But reading the hand I immediately thought that the river raise was designed to make us fold. Still don't know if I would call, because it's hard to put UTG on less than two pair.

I think what happened is that CO has some good reads here - he thinks UTG is an idiot and he thinks hero is very tight. When hero 3-bets pre-flop and flop but just calls the turn CO puts him squarely on AA or AK so he made a move on the river. If he thinks he's ahead of UTG half the time and hero will fold half the time then this is a very good move.

Hero got entangled - both opponents had pair + straight draw and both of them decided to overplay them simultaneously. Very interesting hand.

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]


Very good post. I couldn't have said it better....

Adam