call too loose? -- 200 to win 800 /w open straight & backdoor flush

[bigredlemon]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t2435)
Button (t1310)
SB (t935)
Hero (t1140)
UTG (t1045)
MP (t1135)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t200, MP folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t600) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t200</font>, Hero calls t200, UTG folds.


I figure if a 2 or 7 hits, I could win the 800 in the pot and most likely the rest of his chips, so I was getting very good odds to call.

On the other hand, the blinds were going up to 300/150 next hand. If I miss the turn, i'll have only 590 left after posting the SB, forcing me to either push with any 2, or else wait for a hand to double up with since i'll have no fold equity. And also, I can't discount the fact that he could have both top pair AND a flush draw, leaving me a lot further behind.

Thus: was the flop call too lose? Should I have semi-bluffed and pushed instead?

[bigredlemon]

bump?

[Stickmn24]

If you don't make your straight on the turn, it will probably be very expensive to call and see the river (I'm guessing that the SB has top pair, but he could already have made his straight). I would probably fold here, given the circumstances.

[bigredlemon]

I guess this hand wasn't nearly as interesting as I thought it was.

[stillnotking]

I don't like this call. You might bust the SB if a deuce hits the turn, but if a 7 hits, he probably won't call an all-in. I think his 200 bet here shows weakness -- if he had a real hand (an overpair, two pair, a set, or TPTK) he would probably push the flop. Depending on the player, he probably has about a 50% chance of folding to a push, which makes pushing worthwhile. Even if he is semi-slowplaying a monster, you are drawing live.

[AA suited]

you need 5:1 odds to call for a oesd.

utg 200
sb 100
bb 200
utg bets 200
= 700

you're only getting 3.5:1 odds. fight him when you got math behind you.

FOLD

[Xhiggy]

push or fold. SB's bet seems somewhat strong from a generic standpoint and UTG's limp could be trouble, so I'd lead to fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

Xhiggy's advice is correct. And, odds aren't that important in tournament play. Put "the decision" in his hands, or fold.

Frankly, the SB is most likely playing Ax - perhaps A8(TPTK) or a flush draw.

Looking over the chipstack distribution at your table, folding is the correct answer

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
And, odds aren't that important in tournament play.

[/ QUOTE ]

WHAT!? Scuba, slow down.

You have made 5 new posts in the last 4 hours where all the answers are odds-related and some very well-respected posters (eastbay, for example) are trying to get you to think about the answer for yourself.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Xhiggy's advice is correct. And, odds aren't that important in tournament play.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, SnGs are the most beatable by simple odds analysis of any HE game on PP.

eastbay

[mosch]

[ QUOTE ]
odds aren't that important in tournament play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This may be the least accurate thing I've ever read on 2+2.

[SuitedSixes]

All hands like this can do is cause you to bleed off chips chasing cards. What do you do if the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gifor 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif come? Save your t200 on the flop and wait for a better spot to be the first one in the pot.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Xhiggy's advice is correct. And, odds aren't that important in tournament play.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, SnGs are the most beatable by simple odds analysis of any HE game on PP.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the reason why all the math guys are here. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[schwza]

wow, i'm surprised that everyone is advocating playing so tightly.

i'd push. utg will not call without an overpair, and i think it's unlikely he would have limped in with 88+ with 5 bb's. sb will probably fold a 4 here, and maybe a 5 as well. i think you have a ton of FE here.

suppose utg folds and SB calls (which i think is the 2nd most likely result, after both fold). you're essentially putting in T735 to win a total pot of T2070. for the play to be breakeven in terms of chips when called, you need to win it 735/2070 = 36%. against an 8, you're ~32%. against a 5 or 4, you're ~44% (didn't run numbers on those). you'd obviously rather not get called, but even if you do, it's really not too bad at all.

and i think it's unlikely you'll get called - SB's bet looks like he's taking a stab and wants to preserve some chips if he's wrong.