A situation where I'm clueless... [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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YoureToast

01-23-2005, 01:01 AM

I believe I play 3 flush flops too loosely but this is a situation, from beginning to end, I just don't have confidence in my play. I know UTG is loose aggressive preflop and semi aggressive postflop. Criticize at will. Results to follow.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
UTG raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO (poster) folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.83 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: (5.83 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.83 BB

Stork

01-23-2005, 01:04 AM

Fold the flop.

stanky

01-23-2005, 01:17 AM

I would fold preflop, J10s is a multiway hand and doesn't play well heads up against an UTG raise.

-Pete

amulet

01-23-2005, 01:20 AM

your preflop flop call was incorrect. at a minimum you need at least one other player to call 1 bet from BB with a suited connector. a loose utg can still have a real hand. 30 ways he has AA, KK, JJ, TT, 32 ways he has AK or AQ. of those 62 hands your ahead post flop to AK and TT (if no diamonds, and if AK is not suited). so that takes 15 AK's out (some with redraws and 6 TT's). so of the 62 real hands he has nothing on 21 and a real hand on 41 - where you are a big dog. then he may have AJ, with A of d, AK with A of d, both giving him big redraws. don't call an utg raiser with JTs. post flop, you have middle pair and no diamonds. so even if flop missed him and he has no pair me may have a D. if you want to take a shot post flop that is Ok, but you said he is semi aggressive postflop, therefore, he will play back at you and you can not like your hand when he plays back. fold preflop, fold postflop. another hand will be along in a minute.

flawless_victory

01-23-2005, 03:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
your preflop flop call was incorrect. at a minimum you need at least one other player to call 1 bet from BB with a suited connector. a loose utg can still have a real hand. 30 ways he has AA, KK, JJ, TT, 32 ways he has AK or AQ. of those 62 hands your ahead post flop to AK and TT (if no diamonds, and if AK is not suited). so that takes 15 AK's out (some with redraws and 6 TT's). so of the 62 real hands he has nothing on 21 and a real hand on 41 - where you are a big dog. then he may have AJ, with A of d, AK with A of d, both giving him big redraws. don't call an utg raiser with JTs. post flop, you have middle pair and no diamonds. so even if flop missed him and he has no pair me may have a D. if you want to take a shot post flop that is Ok, but you said he is semi aggressive postflop, therefore, he will play back at you and you can not like your hand when he plays back. fold preflop, fold postflop. another hand will be along in a minute.

[/ QUOTE ]this person is obviously the authority.

Thomsen

01-23-2005, 05:03 AM

what do you mean ?

bugstud

01-23-2005, 06:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop, J10s is a multiway hand and doesn't play well heads up against an UTG raise.

-Pete

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm playing this every single time. You have $15 dead in the pot from the CO. There's 70 in the pot, it's 15 to call and there is no way you are that dominated unless UTG is a total rock that just raises AA/KK/QQ/JJ, and even then you can play because you hand is pretty easy to play.

TStoneMBD

01-23-2005, 09:16 AM

im not folding this hand with dead money in the pot unless UTG is a twoplustwoer. postflop is a fold.

BarronVangorToth

01-23-2005, 10:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
your preflop flop call was incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the Cut-off posting AND folding (make a mental note about this cut-off player -- he's a tight one as few fold their posts UNLESS he has a killer read on the UTG raiser, something else to keep in mind) and the small blind in there, calling the hand pre-flop seems the correct move.

The flop is obviously a disaster ... you tried with the check-raise but he's not biting as he 3-bet you. It might've been interesting if you check-raised the river, depending on your image you might've induced a fold, however, the pot simply isn't big enough for you to dedicate 2BB to this type of line.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

YoureToast

01-23-2005, 12:31 PM

My check raise was intended to be a show of true aggression, rather than a bluff. Obviously, it didn't work when he reraised. But my feeling was that I'd bet out on the turn if he called, fold to a raise....His reraise confused me but I felt that since I got a decent part of the flop (as dangerous as it was) and against this particular player, I was possibly, and maybe likely, ahead. That is until he reraised. What I'm really looking for is a more analytical analysis of this hand. How do I view the 3 flush mathematically heads up? How would the most expert players "think" about this situation? By the way, I can imagine no situation where I would fold this preflop.

Results will follow.

YoureToast

01-23-2005, 12:38 PM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
UTG raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO (poster) folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.83 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: (5.83 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.83 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Jh Th (one pair, jacks).
UTG has 7d 7h (flush, queen high).
Outcome: UTG wins 7.83 BB.

Stork

01-23-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How would the most expert players "think" about this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll take that as my cue /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. Anyway, without a read, I would assume he may raise 88 and up UTG (or apparently 77 too), along with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, and KJ. Maybe AT if it's suited. AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AA, KK, QQ, and JJ all have you pretty badly beaten, especially if he holds a diamond. And although AA, KK, QQ, and JJ are pretty unlikely, AQ, AJ, and KQ, and KJ are not unlikely at all. AK is another likely holding, against which you are a favorite, and if he has a diamond along with that you are barely a favorite at all. There is about a 1/3 chance he has a diamond. If he has a lower pocket pair, you are ahead by a good amount unless he has a diamond in which case your only like a 65% favorite. So overall I would expect you to be behind way more often than you are ahead, and when you are ahead you will not be ahead by alot, and finally, the pot is still small. Wait for a better spot to go to war with a UTG raiser.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I can imagine no situation where I would fold this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you know UTG to be a pretty tight raiser, then you can fold, but w/o a read, I'm calling.