thinking of moving up to 3/6...any advise?

[meanjean]

Been playing for about 5 months. I took 50 bucks in 0.5/1 and made it into 600. Moved up to 1/2 with 100 bucks and turned that into 1200. Moved up to 2/4 with 600 and turned it into 1800....I had planned to wait until I made 400-500 bb's before moving up...but I think I'm playing well and with bonus and poker winnings have a pretty good bankroll.

stats
7784 hands
15.15 vol in pot
26.22 vol in from sb
76.19 fold to steal in sb
70.27 fold to steal in bb
11.24 attempts to steal blinds
33.75 won $ wsf
$1240.50 bucks won
3.98 BB/100
30.48 went to sd
54.55 won $ at sd
6.01 pf raise
477.75 rake

so I want to move up but am willing to listen to dissenters and hope people will tell me the differences between 2/4 and 3/6.

thanks in advance

[Mike Gallo]

I do not play online, so take this with a grain of salt.

I play limits between 5-10 and 10-20.

Time to try the deep end and get out of the kiddie pool.

Invest $180 and take a shot. See how the game goes. You can go between limits.

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
3.98 BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]

i would stay at 2/4 until you have some sort of varience-related downswing, to better prepare you mentally for those that are bound to happen at the higher limits.

[Harv72b]

I am in the process of making that same move up myself. A lot of people will tell you that you don't have enough hands at 2/4 to make the jump, but I won't. You're confident in your game, you have the bankroll, and you sound like you'll be comfortable with taking a shot at the next level...so go for it, and good luck!

I will caution you on a few things, however. First of all, ~7800 hands is not a big sample...hot and cold runs can last far longer than that, and even if you have been winning consistently at every level you've played, you can't eliminate the possibility that you're just getting good cards.

Also, you are going to have to learn a few more skills on the fly as you move up. Blind stealing, for one--11.24% is not nearly a high enough number for 3/6. Blind steals don't come into play as much in 2/4 & below, both because your opponents are generally looser and more passive, and because the difference in dollars between a big blind and a raise is not that great (we think in terms of big bets, but your average begginer doesn't). On 3/6, you'll find yourself on both ends of blind steals quite a bit more often...you need to know which hands to attempt it with, which hands to defend with, and how to go about it after the flop.

You also need to increase your PFR%, although being more aggressive in blind steal situations will go a long way towards fixing that. 6% is not bad, but it should be at least 8%, preferably a bit higher...that also comes from being more comfortable with positional raises, even when not in a blind steal situation.

Finally, you need to be prepared for a lot more aggression at 3/6 & above. You will see more & better bluff attempts, and you will see draws played more aggressively than you'd play TPTK.

Anyway, like I said....if you feel you're ready to take a stab at it, then you probably are. Just don't be too suprised if your win rate goes down for a while as you adjust.

[buffett]

[ QUOTE ]
you'll find yourself on both ends of blind steals quite a bit more often...you need to know which hands to attempt it with, which hands to defend with, and how to go about it after the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]
Can you recommend places to go to learn this sort of stuff? (i.e., links to 2+2 threads, or specific chapters of specific books.) Thanks.
-web

[edtost]

the short-handed section of hepfap, or the hush archives.

[PokerAce]

I recommend sticking with $2/4 until you've hit the inevitable downswings everyone talks about. It will be less devastating to you if it happens at $2/4 than at $3/6.

7k hands is nothing. I play 7k hands in a week and a half, and I only play for a couple hours a day. For all you know, your run up until now has been nothing but luck. I played a good 30k hands of $2/4 before I moved up to $3/6 full time.

3.98 BB/100 is next to impossible to sustain. After 30k hands, be happy if this number is more than 1.5.

It's easy to take shots at higher limits when you're running good. But do you want to be at the higher limits when the downswing occurs?

I took shots at higher limits when I was running well. Needless to say, I was not ready for them and my luck predictably ran out. Yours likely will too. Do yourself a favor and make sure you know that you're beating your current level before moving up.

Now that I'm done being a naysayer, good luck to you whatever you decide.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
i would stay at 2/4 until you have some sort of varience-related downswing, to better prepare you mentally for those that are bound to happen at the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I think taking shots is something that everyone should do with minimal hand-wringing, this is great advice, particularly for those green enough to have never run bad. A big downswing at a new limit can be psychologically devastating for anyone, as well as bankroll crippling if you've never gone through one before.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
While I think taking shots is something that everyone should do with minimal hand-wringing, ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

(Good luck.)

[flair1239]

I think you just go ahead and committ to it. If you do happen to hit a downswing and it starts to affect you mentally, you can always move back down.

As long as you are prepared to evaluate yourself honestly (ie.. you decide you have gaping holes which will prevent you from being a winning player at your present level.) and act on that evaluation, the rewards of succeeding at a higher level outweigh the potential risk of a downswing.

[meanjean]

[ QUOTE ]


3.98 BB/100 is next to impossible to sustain. After 30k hands, be happy if this number is more than 1.5.


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Things I've read say 3 BB/100 is possible.

Not that it's directly related but I had 4/100 at .5/1 and I've improved alot since then.

Does everybody agree that 1.5 BB/100 hands is what one should strive for or accept?

[edtost]

3-3.5 is considered the theoretical maximum for a very good player. anything over 2-2.5 is good.

[MyssGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
A big downswing at a new limit can be psychologically devastating for anyone, as well as bankroll crippling if you've never gone through one before.

[/ QUOTE ]

This describes my middle of Jan! I moved from 2/4 to 3/6 with more than enough bankroll (1k BB). I decided to continue multipaling (4x). The first 4 weeks were great. Stats exactly where I wanted, winning exactly the amount I wanted. Then came Jan 10th. Following my best day ever in ring games, I begin my downslide. I lose 200+ BB in a weeks span, with one winning session of .75 BB. Confidence shot and nearly 1/3 of my bankroll gone.

After reviewing many hands, reading 2+2, and relaxing, I decide to shift back down to 2/4 to re-build confidence and bankroll. I'm starting to see a lot of mistakes I was making (pushing hands too long, bluffing the un-bluffable, "making up" implied odds), all of which made my 3/6 game worse (and worse as I multi-day tilted).

It's been a few days of 2/4, I'm up nearly 150 BB and feeling much better. That move from 2/4 to 3/6 can really point out some major flaws in your game, but it also makes you a better player when you see them and fix those leaks.

Good luck!

[deadmunny]

IMHO... I am inconsistent and know it, when I am playing well I am better than avg /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.. people whom use PT say that I see too many flops.

anyway back to my post.... 3 months ago I started playing at $2/$4 Party with a $250 bankroll (Yikes a sin not $1200???? anyway in a coupla months i was at $1100 within two weeks I refilled /images/graemlins/frown.gif with $350 and am up to $500 again I realised I was being lucky/running good... AA, AK holding up, you catch your flushes, and your sets and can completely agree with the previous posters about downswings so be prepared and be lucky


Regards David

[kendal14]

I made this move last month, and I agree with most that you probably should throw some more hands in at the 2/4 level. You are running great and while it is tempting to take that great rush to the next level, as others have stated it can bite you back real hard.

My experience:
I decided to play 30k hands (the accepted statistical signifcant number i think is around 100k). I moved up from 2/4 after sustaining a winning win rate at 2/4 of 2.7BB/100. After moving I had a downswing that had me down 60BB. This is considerably more money than you will have ever lost... and does it happen more often at 3/6. Yes it does. Why?

Differences I have found between 3/6 and 2/4 at Party:
3/6 = much more aggressive, more HU or 3 way pots which almost never happens at 2/4, many more bluffs and semi-bluffs that you need to sniff out.

Because of the more agressive nature of the game you need to be able to stay to do the same. This translates to a MUCH higher variance than the 2/4 game and since the BB are 50% bigger the higher variance means even more of a swing cash wise.

3/6= Table selection is much tougher for me at this level. At 2/4 it is easy to find average pot sizes of 8xBB and table VPIP's in the low to high 30's. At 3/6 this is almost non-existent. This does not mean that you cannot win at 3/6... you just have to be better than you were at 2/4 at playing against better players. Again, this translates into an inital win rate drop until you adjust to the tighter nature of even the fish at 3/6.

My advice... double your sample size. Play 7500 more hands. You are doing great so far and can look at it as your final warmup and prep for the 3/6 game. Use those hands to tighten up some parts of your game (those mentioned above: greater PFR 8-10%, more steal attempts, and look at your post flop agression numbers... I don't remember off hand if you posted them).

Either way, I think you know you should take the shot... I just think you should be prepared for a possible downswing and have your game it as good a shape as possible.

Good luck.