Any way to get away from this one?

[Laughingboy]

From my first foray into $55 turbo:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1425)
Button (t1850)
SB (t1230)
BB (t1750)
UTG (t2665)
Hero (t1470)
MP2 (t3110)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t90, UTG calls t90.

Flop: (t375) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t30</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t180</font>, BB calls t150.

Turn: (t735) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t630</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1350</font>, Hero calls t540 (All-In).

River: (t3255) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3255

UTG turned over 65o. Ugh. The only silver lining is yes, there are weak players in the 55s.

[ChrisV]

The raise on the flop is far too small. You priced him in. he has a 15.6% chance of making two pair or trips on the turn and you're only making him put in 20.4% of the total pot size. With implied odds against your obvious big pair, that's a fine call. It should be worrying for you that you didn't recognise this mistake and instead are looking for how to get away from the hand.

[Laughingboy]

Hm. I'm not sure I agree with your numbers. 5 outs to make 2 pair or trips = 5/47 = 10.6%. He had to call 150 to win 585. 150/585 = 26%. My bet is probably still not big enough given the two suited cards, though.

I agree I probably should have bet more, but with that flop, I didn't expect him to have hit a 5 after calling my pre-flop raise. When he called I put him on something like AJ. If an ace or a second jack fell, I'd be much less likely to put in my whole stack, so the implied odds don't work out if he has the kind of hand I expect.

[Sidekick]

I totally agree with ChrisV. Where you went wrong is on the flop bet. There is a possible flush and straight on that board. I would have raised to 250-300 on the flop.

Now, having said that... from the behavior of villain in this hand I don't think you are going to get him to lay down this hand even if you pushed. (I realize it is only 1 hand, but still...) Villain appears to be in love with connectors and has gotten a piece of this flop. He may well be the type of player that once they have a piece of the flop, they are going to showdown.

The preflop raise was large enough so that it should have gotten villain to fold. The flop bet while marginal should have gotten villain to fold again, but it didn't. A larger bet might have gotten villain to fold, but I suspect in this case that villain wasn't laying down this hand after he catches a part of the flop.

[ChrisV]

Yeah, I screwed up the numbers (so did you - he can count on you not holding a 5 or 6 so it's 5/45, 11.1%). My point stands though - he is not having to call much of his stack and he busts you if he hits. I would raise to something like 400 and then bet allin on the turn.

If he has AJ, he probably isn't folding under any circumstances at this level. That bet out doesn't look like AJ at all though. It usually means a draw or a weak hand. Usually they're hoping to see a cheap turn. Mission accomplished on this hand.

[ChrisV]

Actually I doubt he's calling 400, but that isn't really the point. Point is he'd be making a mistake to call, whereas the call of 150 is arguably correct.

[Laughingboy]

But that's the thing. I put him on AJ, so yes, I figured he wasn't folding. So why not get him on the installment plan, instead, if pushing can't get him to fold? I can at least think about laying it down if an ace or another diamond falls.

That being said, yes, my bet should have been closer to the size of the pot, in case he was on a draw.

[Laughingboy]

[ QUOTE ]
(so did you - he can count on you not holding a 5 or 6 so it's 5/45, 11.1%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I thought of that after posting. I was going to ask if it's right to cut the deck down to 45 here. I guess the question is, when evaluating odds from my opponent's perspective, should I take my own hand into account? Actually, now that I think about it, I probably should if I'm analyzing how big a raise to make to give him a bad deal. Anyone else want to chime in?

[ChrisV]

Yes, you should. And you especially should if, as here, he's in a position to know you don't hold any of his outs.

Regarding putting him on AJ, why? It's a pretty specific hand, after all, and that 30 betout should scream "not AJ".