follow-up to my flopped r/flush question and Bad beat question

[deadmunny]

Dear All,

In my previous post I was told that the chance of flopping a royal flush was 20,000-1, but I have read other posts that says this figure is much higher.... what is the correct answer?

FYI, I had K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The flop was A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

In addition, I play the BB jackpot tables at party and came close once when I had:

6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

the community cards included 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

My opponent had J /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

This has prompted me to ask are the chances better of winning the Badbeat with a scenario, where two players have the top and bottom of a straight flush or is it more probable quads beating quads?

FYI, I got a hand history of a bad beat jackpot:

one player 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

flop : 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif

Turn: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

River J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

other player turns over A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

regards David

[gaming_mouse]

David,

Quads over quads is more likely that str8 flush to str8 flush, though I don't feel like doing the math right now.

As for your first question, the answer is that given that you have already been dealt 2 suited broadways, the chance of flopping a str8 flush is:

1 in (50 choose 3), or 1 in 19600.

Perhaps the other number you heard was the chance of first being dealt 2 suited broadways, and THEN flopping a str8 flush. This is quite a bit higher, as the chance of being dealt two suited broadways is:

4*(5 choose 2)/(52 choose 2), or 1 in 33.15

making it about 33 times less likely.

gm

[deadmunny]

Ahh........ Thank you,


Regards David