turned set, good aggression?

[edtost]

mp1 is looseish and reasonable postflop over ~40 hands. how is that turn 3bet? needless to say, i was not happy when he capped.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

[Nick C]

I think the turn 3-bet is fine, and slowing down where you did seems sensible to me as well.

[cjromero]

I would bet this river. The turn cap could easily be QJ, or a slowplayed JJ or 88, all of which you beat. The only hand you are worried about is 9-10, and if the guy is decent postflop, wouldn't he have raised the flop in an effort to get a free card on the turn?

[edtost]

a turn cap in 2/4 is rarely anything but the nuts. jj is possible, but 9t is more probable, especially considering his looseness preflop. also, if this player is one who will cap without the nuts, he will surely bet the river when checked to, no?

[jonahmavesin]

Yeah, he wouldn't raise the flop to get a free card from earlyish position.

Could well be 9T. But like like the slowing down and seeing it through. Well-played.

[krishanleong]

The turn 3-bet is extremely easy. Don't be results oriented.

Krishan

[cjromero]

Good point about the fact that villain will bet the river anyway if he is willing to cap the turn without the nuts.

I am still not sold on the check/call line on the river. There are many likely hands of villain that you beat.

And given that villain had position on hero and would have liked a free card, I think a flop raise would have been in order if he had the OESD.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, he wouldn't raise the flop to get a free card from earlyish position.

Could well be 9T. But like like the slowing down and seeing it through. Well-played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure. Hero has the second nuts, it's hard to slow down w/ the second nuts when the nuts requires 2 cards. The turn cap could be 88, 44, JJ or QJ. I guess this is time for me to start learning probability but I think if the turn could be capped with all of these it would be +EV to be aggressive on the river as well.

Or am I completely off base?

[bisonbison]

I would bet the river and call a raise.