Newbie Math Model Question

[Mike Z]

Do I have this correct Mathematically?

Barring
- Reads’ of the other players
- Deceptive play
- Position at the table
IS this mathematical model Correct?

CASE 1
IF Pot Odds minus Draw odds > 0 OR High Hand Odds > 50% THEN
You continue (Call, Bet or Raise.)
ELSE
Check/Fold
ENDIF

CASE 2
IF High hand Odds > 50% THEN
I Raise/Bet
ELSE
CALL
ENDIF

[pzhon]

No, that's wrong by a lot, even though you have thrown out a lot of important complexities of poker.

Read Theory of Poker to correct some of the misunderstandings you may have, e.g., that you should bet or raise if you think you are the favorite. In stud, if you have quads showing, then in theory you should not bet on the river, even if you feel you will win 99% of the time.

[djhoneybear]

When you start your post by saying "barring x y and z:, you are basically coming up with a "formula" that you can never really apply. You might as well let a bot play for you. In addition betting with the nut hand all the time is a sure way to minimize your profit. Example - you hold AK and the flop comes A, A, K. If you bet this hand you will chase away anyone on a flush draw, with an ace and a lower kicker, with pocket kings etc. Its basically a really bad idea.