hypothetical underpair

[Loser]

you have: 2d 2c in bb
flop is 3d 8s Kh
action from UTG

what kind of pot odds does one need to call flop bet to make set? (AKA when do you have implied odds to make set on turn?)


I realize this is a very case by case question, but lets just assume an average $2/4 full table.

Complete hypothetical hands appreciated.

Any additional comments for necessary odds with flush/straight boards would also be appreciated.

Thanks

[jason_t]

It's 22.5 to 1 that you hit another deuce on the turn. So, in this case, there should be 22.5 small bets in the pot to call a flop bet. A pot is almost never that large on the flop, but if it is, many other people in the hand are going to be correct to draw too. For example, you gave the flop as 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. With a pot that large, I wouldn't be surprised if someone holding A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif tried to draw to their backdoor straight and flush draws, plus their overcard ace which they might think is good. If you did hit a 2 on the turn, especially the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, you are subject to redraws from someone holding a hand like A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Also, in the example you give, you imply that you are closing the action in the BB. Other times, you might not be closing the action and you have to worry about a raise behind you. In this case, you'd have to look at how many people are left to act behind you, and how aggressive they are. If someone were to raise behind you, you're odds would be wrecked.

[Loser]

let me rephrase- incorporate implied odds to checkraise the field. Is this as simple as using the 22.5:1 given and calculating the probability of extracting 2 additional small bets per player on the turn?

[jason_t]

Why would you checkraise the field?

[Loser]

if i caught my 2 on the turn

[jason_t]

Ah, you mean checkraise the field on the turn, not on the flop? My bad for misunderstanding. Yes, of course you can discount the 22.5 to 1 for implied odds, but you also have to bump it up a little in this case since, say, the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif subjects you to various redraws.

[Loser]

i guess that was the focus of my question, what kind of odds do i evaluate it as. the 22.5:1, should it be reevaluated and to what?

[Loser]

anyone else have input?

[Malcom Reynolds]

Implied odds are too situation specific. You need reads on your opponents, and all of the action up until this point. What the preflop action is, how many players in the hand, how well do they play, all of these factors tremendously affect your implied odds.