Laying Down QQ Versus a LAG

[gaming_mouse]

MP2's stats 200 hands -- VPIP=40, aggr=1, 2.5, 5
I want to know if anyone calls down here instead of folding. My thinking was:

1. I am the PF raiser and have showed constant aggression. I am therefore not likely to fold, although he may have seen me fold to a turn raise at this table before.
2. He is betting into me AND another player (although in fairness, he could probably assume the other guy was folding)
3. I hadn't seen him specifically turn raise bluff before, tho his stats suggest he is capable of it.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

[sean c]

Mouse I would call check/call the river thinking im good often enough for this to be a profitable play against this type of player. Am I way off here?

[Khern]

It's just this kind of hand that's been giving me problems. Everytime I fold, I wonder if it's right, and everytime I call down I think I should've known I was beat...

The problem is that I don't really know the right move. I could stand losing a lot of these hands on the river if I was pretty sure that calling down was profitable.

In this hand, The other player could have picked up a flush draw and raised, but he also could've made his straight or been slowplaying his K, or even paired his 4xh. you need to be right about 1in5 assuming he's gonna bet it out. Say, you're good 1in8 and you losing about $1.5 on the call, but if you're good 1in4, you gain about $2

Any more comments? I'm really trying to work on plugging postflop leaks, but I honestly don't know if I'm calling down too much, or folding too much.

-John

[jonahmavesin]

Pot is not large so I don't think you lose a ton by folding here...

That said, he could NOT have just hit a straight given the 2-bet cold-call. (I mean, you never know, but you have to assume he's got high cards or a pocket pair.) But a K, or a slowplayed set, and you're beaten. Any kind of bluff or semi-bluff you can beat. Depends on your read completely. But again, with a small pot, I think it's either-or here.

Personally, I probably call, check-call, because a) folding to a turn raise is one of those things people pick up on and will test you later for, and b) you just never know with these maniacs, and given your read on his stats, I call him down. I'd probably only fold to a super TAG or weak-tight player here.