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View Full Version : pot steal/pot odds situation


willie24
01-21-2005, 07:03 PM
online $65 sng
game is generally semi-tight, and somewhat passive. not a lot of bluffing or stealing going on. there are no players here that are loose for their whole stack. fair amount of limpers some hands but raisers and raise-callers have generally shown very good hands. social table- lots of chat. my image is very tight/solid. i've shown great hands every time ive raised. I know that when the blinds go up further, i'm going to have some good chances to steal blinds and increase my stack.

6 handed. blinds are 50/100. my stack is 1070. there is no one in the hand with a shorter stack than me.

I'm on the button with Q9o. 2 limpers to me. I push.
Comments please. what i want to know is, how much on average am i gaining here, and is it definitely worth risking right now when I may have better pot odds on my bluffs when the blinds go up?

Big Limpin'
01-21-2005, 07:19 PM
You increase your stack by 15% when you get it. Id guess 4 times in 5 you are uncontested. And 1 time in 5 you are called. Likely as a dog. I'll give your Q9o a 30% chance of winning against a guy who called your push for all his stack.

(0.80)*(T150) = T120
(0.20)*(0.30)*(T150+Villain stack) = ??
(0.20)*(0.70)*(T150-Villain stack) = ??

Draw you own conclusions. It depends on his stack, but i like the push, personally

Big Limpin'
01-21-2005, 07:21 PM
Sorry, just re-read you pst, and i see now there are 2 limpers. THought you were opening from the button.

Above post is moot, but same idea, just more liekyl you will be called, but T350 in pot now instead of T150, so the steals are more lucrative.