88 flops bottom set, ugly board.

[B Dids]

I'm UTG +1 with 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. UTG limps, I limp, UTG+2 limps, folded back to the BB.

Flop 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets, I raise, UTG+2 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, I cap.

Turn 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check, UTG+2 bets, I call.

River A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG+2 bets, I call.

I'm thinking the river is a fold. Given his action, there's so few possible holdings that beat me. At best I'm hopling for a limped AA/KK/QQ and he's not the type to do that. At worst he's got a better set or any draw he was pumping got there.

[RED_RAIN]

Capping this flop is bad. Your odds go way up on the turn once you see a safe card. You are pumping a hand early that has a ton of draws against you, wait till the turn to go to war. You won't make these players fold their draws much and really only given some odds to continue the chase on the turn.

[ErrantNight]

[empty space]

i hate giving up sets on the river... but what DIDN'T just come in?

i usually raise this preflop... although UTG+1 is early enough that after a limper i'd consider calling (and it's probably so close as to not really be worthy of debate)

[Yeknom58]

No one is going to fold a good draw on the turn and they're going to have the odds to chase so I don't see a good reason not to cap. If he had an over pair or TP I can see waiting for the turn but he has a set so let the money fly.

If anything I might have bet the turn.

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
No one is going to fold a good draw on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

That has no affect on it. Bad calls are what makes good players money.

This is a pretty easy hand IMO on the flop. As should it be. I don't think it's too debatable that capping the flop isn't correct. Read SSH, or just think about how you are affect pot size, what type of hands you could be up against and how many cards you don't want to see on the turn. How many cards that if you go full they won't be able to lay down if that card brings their hand too.

[Yeknom58]

That's not what I meant. I was saying that even if he only calls on the flop his opponent will still have the odds to call on the turn. So he might as well get the money in the pot. It's heads up and he has a set. Unless his opponent has a made flush/straight/better set his pot equity is going to be like 60% on the flop. Not capping when your equity is like 60% seems crazy to me. Capping on the flop is OH SO debateable it's not even funny.

[ugly24]

Why are we so sure that the villain is on a draw and not top pair or 2 pair here. The flop action was
UTG Bets / HERO raises (excellent!) / villain 3-bets, 2 fold, hero caps. Couldn't the villain have slowplayed AA and now he wants to drive out draws and punish anyone that hit top pair?

did a LOT of things hit .. yep! Was villain drawing to any of them... I'm not so sure given how aggressive he was 3-bet on flop, betting the turn. Now.... did villain have QJ, that's not out of the question, but I think calling down to find out makes some sense.

As for the assertion that a cap on the flop doesn't drive out draws... no, it didn't need to because the hero's raise did that : 4 bets preflop, UTG bets, hero raises so next 2 to act are getting 6:2 so incorrect odds to draw to a flush or a OESD (OESFD is another story, but you're never going to get that to fold).

I like the way u played it. There are a lot of hands that will beat you, but there are a lot of reasonably likely hands that you're set is good against.

Looking forward to seeing results...

The Ugly One!

[ugly24]

the remaining villain 3-bet the flop... youre not going to drive him out no matter what. the question is "is my hand good"... I think its good often enough to cap it and then call it down.

Ugly24

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No one is going to fold a good draw on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

That has no affect on it. Bad calls are what makes good players money.

This is a pretty easy hand IMO on the flop. As should it be. I don't think it's too debatable that capping the flop isn't correct. Read SSH, or just think about how you are affect pot size, what type of hands you could be up against and how many cards you don't want to see on the turn. How many cards that if you go full they won't be able to lay down if that card brings their hand too.

[/ QUOTE ]

The set's equity isn't changed a whole lot by a safe card here. You seem to be thinking about overpairs; however, with 7 solid outs on the flop and 10 on the turn if non-safe cards come, Hero's equity is quite good against everything except QJ.

A flop cap certainly isn't bad when the possibility of UTG+2 betting a strong draw comes into consideration. If there is a section in SSH that says capping the flop with bottom set here would be bad, I'd like to see it -- I certainly can't remember it.

If villain only caps with QJ, QJs, JTs, T9s, and 99, Hero's equity is 46.2% here. On the turn, against that same range of hands, Hero's equity is 40%.

If villain plays spade draws too aggressively, however, then Hero's equity goes up significantly both on the flop and on the turn. I don't mind the fastplay here at all.

I think check-folding the river would be ok, as much as it sucks.

Rob