Favs early, Dogs Late?

I only bet college football (when it's not baseball season). I look at the lines on monday, and bet the favorites immediately. I mark down the dogs I like, then bet them right before gametime on the knowledge that 80% of the time a line moves, it makes the favorite a bigger favorite. I save/gain points in the spread this way, and I'm sure it is something many of the posters here do as well.


I wonder, however, about some of the problems that may be inherent in this manner of doing things. Obviously my dogs are getting more points because more and more people think it's a great idea to bet the other way. How should I feel about this?


Great, because most people betting sports are idiots?


Great, because if I liked em at 6, I should love em at 8?


Terrible, because the late bettors know what they're doing better then everyone else?


Does anybody know if late line shifts are historically predictive in any way?

My personal take has always been to wait things out, for no other reason than I like to look at the games awhile before making concrete selctions. Then again I have never been someone to make a line and say Penn St is 7 points better than Indiana and I will bet accordingly. If that is your style then go ahead and follow this proverb with one thought in mind. Say you like the dog and the number is 7. What if that number was 5, would you still take it? If you wouldn't then I would suggest locking in the number now because when you are close to key numbers, you are much more likely to see those games going against you than say if you like a 5 point dog. That is the game much more likely to see the number go up. Think about key numbers and you will be able to narrow this principle into even more concrete terms and find you get numbers even better than if you just follow it blindly. If a game is near a key number it could go either way. If it is not and its a college game, many more times than not it will start to approach the next key number UP.