Early stages of a $32 STT Qualifier question

[bunky9590]

Hey Gang. Wanted to post this one as it seemed alright at the time, but afterward I wasn't so sure, so I'm putting it to the jury.

Second level of a $32 PPM iv Qualifier. NLHE.
I have 99 in the BB and a stack of 1100. I have everyone cobvered but the villain. Table for the most part is playing scared and conservative, except for villain and Bunky.

Blinds 15-30
UTG pushes for his last T65, he almost went broke the hand before when villain cracked him with something retarded.

villain calls, 3 other callers to me. I have 99 and shove all in from the BB for 1100.

[sofere]

I'd smooth call hoping for a set. If any overs, get out. If flop is all undercards, I'd probably checkraise/fold to a push.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd smooth call hoping for a set. If any overs, get out. If flop is all undercards, I'd probably checkraise/fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's usually my standard line. However it sure looked like I could really apply pressure to the field that obviously looks really really weak by just calling the micro stack all in. I just thought it looked like a really good spot to steal it w/o seeing a flop. Skewed thinking?

[bunky9590]

bump

[boxedIn]

What are you stealing? Something like 200 chips? You're risking 1100 to steal 200 chips and, even if they all fold, you might very well be a 50/50 or a 70/30 to win those 200 chips. If anyone calls, you're likely to be screwed.

If, on the other hand, you call 35 which is an incredibly minimal investment and I'm guessing you're closing the action here, you're risk is basically 0. If you hit a set, you're probably now at an 80-90% chance to win those 200 chips and an 80-90% chance to take someone's stack (assuming they call). If, on the other hand, you do not hit a set then you can fold and move on.

You get no benefit from pushing in and you expose yourself to a lot of risk. What are you hoping for here -- everyone to fold? That seems like an awful big risk to take for 200 chips. If you're hoping for someone to call -- well, I doubt you'd get a call from 22-88 and everything else you're not too happy to see calling.