Good Laydown w/ AQs?

[Josh Chud]

My thinking here is the PF-Raiser is sitting on AK, AA, KK, QQ, or JJ... but after the flop im 99% sure he's sitting on AA, AK, or KK (though i believe it to be AK), either way im boned... and if he happens to be sitting on AQ im only headed for a split, and the odds of that are not good. I feel like this is a standard laydown here but most people would payoff until the river. So i guess the question is wether or not i did a disciplined thing here.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

thoughts? Oh, UTG claims he had set of K's, but didnt show.

[Kaz The Original]

I suppose you called preflop looking for clubs?

I guess my point here is, if against this opponent, you intend to fold this type of board, fold preflop.

[Josh Chud]

I only intend to fold here if the A comes w/ a K and i have no redraws... if he has Q's or J's im okay. If he's ahead preflop i have a 1/6 chance of hitting my flush draw preflop. You're right though i don't call if im not suited here preflop. Im thinking this is the worst possible board you could see w/ AQs against a PF Raiser. I also dont have alot of information on this player... Insane amount of players at this level raise 2's-10's in early position, but i'll need to respect this particular one until i learn otherwise. Also the players behind me are loose, i know my call inspires their call, they're not in the habit of reraising, so they are paying me to draw here. I believe there were 5 callers preflop?

[TStoneMBD]

The king on this flop does not change your position in the hand. The only hand that the K on the flop improves is KK or K8. You are already behind AK so this card does not concern you. You should be as inclined to fold on this flop as you should be to fold on an A98 flop, if not less so.

[Mansavage]

I think the king on this flop does change his position significantly. If the flop is AK8 and you are against AK or KK (two likely holdings), then he is drawing nearly dead. On and A98 flop, the AQ has outs versus AK and is winning versus KK. There is a huge difference between having to hit a three outer once, and having to hit it twice.

[TStoneMBD]

i replaced the K with 9 because it is just as likely that villain has AK as he does 99.

[Josh Chud]

Well here's how i see it, i always look at these things in terms of preflop #'s and then we move on from there by texture of the board. AA would be devastating to me here 87.5/12.5, AK im 3:1 dawg, KK its 60/40, QQ is 66/34 and after that its 53/47. So EVEN against Aces im being paid to draw here by other callers. The A that hits the flop here is significant because if im up against AK my position hasn't changed and it gives me leverage over the rest of the field, while they continue to draw to gutshots and flushes im still ahead. The K is what kills everything. If by some chance this jerkwad raised pocket 9's and the flop comes A98 then what are you gonna do?... but lets say the flop came A /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif well now that changes everything now doesnt it? even against AK.. even against a set of Jacks. So yes the K is huge, in fact its the only thing i dont want the flop to hit. The PF's reraise on the flop is what solidifies how big that K is. If he has AK and the flop comes AJX and i raise, he may give me a free card on the turn, even when its right to reraise.

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

i have some problems with your numbers work, but a quick comment: if you are folding the turn, it's because you thought you had to draw runner runner to beat him (because you decide he has two pair or better). why not fold the flop?

[KegNog]

I agree totally, the flop raise is an obvious play here, but with the reraise and the eventual fold here, why even call to see the turn? the chances of hitting runner runner are nowhere near your pot odds to call here and if u hit the queen now you're in a world of hurt and will be much harder to throw away your hand.
i think it's a good fold, you're beat, but save that extra bet in the future.
and for what it's worth, i'd believe his KK hand. he's so excited that he's been raised on that flop he'll just ram and jam till the end thinking he's maximizing his money and not realizing the importance of the money streets and overcalls from the MP player. As far as he's concerned, he has the Ace beat, get the $ in while he can.

[NMcNasty]

I think this was a bad laydown. UTG could easily have AQ, AJ, some other flush draw, or some weaker hand. As painfull as it is, you have to pay him off. Also I'm really not a fan of your preflop call. If you really think UTG +1 has only the hands that you listed you should be folding preflop. If you think he might be raising with AJ and KQ as well you should reraise.

[Josh Chud]

I appreciate the question, thats fair. In any situation like this I figure to have two plays, raise or fold. The reraise gives me the information i wanted to know (Raise for information). So then the question is why call? I only have one answer though i don't know how solid it is, basically, in case anyone actually "is" paying attention, i dont want them to think they can buy it from me on the flop, if i fold the flop here, but then call a good draw later down the road, it will be obvious.. if i always call the flop i can make more later, because the early position better may bet into me again down the road thinking i will fold the turn, when i can raise with a stronger hand. So basically its for consistency and deception.

Also someone asked why not reraise preflop. I don't like this play at all, especially if i believe im behind. I need as much action in this hand as possible, because im trying to draw to the nuts, i dont have a made hand, and i could be behind, so no use playing heads up starting from behind in my opinion. Anyone agree?

[cpk]

FWIW, UTG wasn't screwed by the way he played this hand, he was screwed by being an 5% PFR, thereby giving our hero the data he needed to make this laydown. If he were me, a 14% PFR, he would have to pay me off like an ATM, and he might even give me even more action.

[cpk]

If your read was solid, then why are you asking us? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I disagree with laying down on the flop. You only rarely want to fold after giving up the lead on the turn. You almost never want to do this on the flop for one bet only. Even a complete ignoramus will start taking shots at you if you do this.

Otherwise, if you are confident with your read, very well done. Rock-solid reads can save you a lot of money sometimes.