Am I a Total Rock?

[Skip Brutale]

We are 5 handed in the last hand of 25/50, me and 2 other players are even at about 700 chips, and the two big stacks are equal. They are also both idiots who I expect to continue to play stupid into 50/100.

I'm in the bb with A6 and this moron in the sb who has a big stack completes. I see no fold equity and check. Flop is A74 diamonds and I have no D. The guy comes out for 175. He has been overbetting all game, since he's a moron afterall, so I'm not sure what to make of this. If I re-raise all-in I know he's calling with a diamond, or he could possibly do some other ruthless draw out.

I had this strange feeling like I knew my hand was probably better right now, but if I just folded I could handle short-stacked at 50/100 better than the other 2 players at my level and make the money more often than risking this guy hitting a diamond. So I folded.

I wound up finishing 3rd as expected. Was my play here just stupid? It's possible he could have me outkicked, two pair, whatever, but I didn't want him to call with his diamond. Am I starting to develop a Helmuth type of syndrom?

Lately my gap is incredibly high. I just don't want any confrontations or showdowns. Am I taking it too far?

[Skip Brutale]

I know this is a great post full of strategic concepts to debate over that was just somehow missed so I'm bringing it back to the top.

[Runner Runner]

I see nothing wrong with waiting for a better spot. If you believe that it is extremely likely that you are best on the flop and that he is drawing, a better option would be to call the flop and push on a non diamond turn.

[danng721]

With that flop, where you are either way behind or only slightly ahead of many hands, it's a good fold. Also, with your read, you have no folding equity. If you're confident that you're better than the other players, you want to avoid putting your money in marginal situations.

[Big Limpin']

Yeah, i like your play. And how you rationalized it.

I think you DID have the best hand.
I think you had better than a 2:1 chance of winning the pot.

But if you are outkicked/2 pr/flushed etc, you are losing it all.
And if he has a diamiond, you lose 1 time in 3.

Doubling only puts you at 1400. THats good for hanging in for the money, but you are still a long way from winning.

Whereas folding, you are 100% still in it.

I guess the question is: in the next 10 to 20 (?) hands, will you find a better place to put you money in?

[codewarrior]

Well played, for all of your stated reasons.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm in the bb with A6 and this moron in the sb who has a big stack completes. I see no fold equity and check.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you see no folding equity here, you are either blind or you don't understand what folding equity is. Folding equity is the amount of money in the pot multiplied by the probability that you opponent(s) will fold. There are 100 chips in the pot, and if you push he will fold most of the time. How often, exactly, he will fold is not worth debating... but it is often. You have more than 50 chips of folding equity here for sure, probably closer to 90. A 90% chance to increase you stack by more than 10% sounds a lot like one of those risk/benefit ratios that the smart poker theorists talk about.

Your play after the flop was miserable, too, in my opinion... but there is something more valuable to be gained from this thread:

[ QUOTE ]
since he's a moron afterall, so I'm not sure what to make of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This type of thinking will hurt you more than just about any leak you can imagine. First of all, it's not nice to consider someone a moron just because they play poker a certain way. Second of all, assuming that somebody plays the way that they do because they are unpredictably stupid is moronic. Most players play in highly predictable ways. That's why good players can beat bad players. Bad players are particularly predictable. Most players who think they are good, but are really just ABC tight and quite lousy, think that bad players are unpredictable and difficult to beat. They are half right. These players ARE difficult to beat for the ABC weaklings because they are incapable of identifying the "bad players'" poor, predictable play.

You (not you, Skip, just a general statemen) have SERIOUS problems if you believe any of the following are true:

1. You are unlucky
2. Most people are morons
3. Bad players are difficult to play against

You cannot win consistently until you understand that:

1. You, and everybody else, are precisely as lucky or unlucky as you can expect to be according to relatively straightforward probabilities.

2. Most people are of average intelligence, +/- 1 SD, and can be expected to behave as others of similar intelligence would.

3. Bad poker players are easy to beat, thank goodness, and there are about 60,000 of them playing poker online right now.

I would say that if you are a good poker player, the ratio between the number of times you get called a moron (idiot, stupid, whatever) and the number of times you call somebody a moron should approach infinity. You need to work on your ratio.


[ QUOTE ]

Am I starting to develop a Helmuth type of syndrom?


[/ QUOTE ]

Since Helmuth has 9 hold'em bracelets, I would imagine that a syndrome named after him would have to include as a symptom: winning.

Irieguy

[AA suited]

yep, at 25/50, this would have been an auto fold. no need to risk your stack to fight for 100 chips on a dangerous board.

but if this was 50/100, i would have went all-in preflop w/700 chips. i'm not going to let the sb just limp in when i have A6.

of course if the sb folds and then limps in again a few hands later, BE CAREFUL! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
If you see no folding equity here, you are either blind or you don't understand what folding equity is. Folding equity is the amount of money in the pot multiplied by the probability that you opponent(s) will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Catty! You should be on Queer Eye for the Straight Guy.

I get the impression from his read that he considers the opponent's fold probability to be approaching zero... am I missing something, or am I blind and stupid too?

[Voltron87]

nice post irie.

[Voltron87]

I don't like your play or thought process, you say he has been overbetting pots all day, he limped from the SB yet you think you're behind? If you think youre behind most of the time here youre wrong. You should not worry about being outkicked. You have a reason to be worried about the flush, but would he come out and bet strong if he flopped it? I think not. You are ahead in the hand most of the time, if you push and he calls with one diamond or pair that is great for you.

If you double up (and most of the time you are a favorite to do so) you have 1400/1500 chips, enough to push around the two 700 stacks, which if you are as good as you think will be easy.

Your thought "Well theyre crappy players I can get them next time" does not apply to SNGs. You dont have forever, you think youre going to get a better spot in 20 hands? 20 hands? From the kind of situation you seem to desire you will have to wait a lot more than 20 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
If I re-raise all-in I know he's calling with a diamond, or he could possibly do some other ruthless draw out.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case you want the money in, if you think you don't want all the money in because he will have some ruthless draw out you don't know how poker is played.

[ QUOTE ]
I had this strange feeling like I knew my hand was probably better right now, but if I just folded I could handle short-stacked at 50/100 better than the other 2 players at my level and make the money more often than risking this guy hitting a diamond. So I folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

This type of thinking is not conducive to a high SNG ROI.

[KenProspero]

My only thought -- how strong was your gut feeling that you had the better hand.

I guess this is a general question for the group. How often do you toss your logic and just go with the gut feeling.

For me, in a close call, I'll go with my gut and my read on the player. (I find I'm right maybe 70% - 75% of the time, but have had some spectacular misreads). I'm still working on this, but it's becoming a something I'm more and more comfortable with.

[Voltron87]

After rereading you post I think you're more right than you know when you talk about "Phil Hellmuth syndrome", with all the talk about worried about being drawn out. Folding hands you are ahead in because you are worried about a ruthless suckout is a big leak.

[bball904]

Irie,

Great post as per usual. However I found something that I'm conflicted with in there. Let me explain:

[ QUOTE ]
2. Most people are morons

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this whole-heartedly! That would suggest I have a SERIOUS problem.... perhaps.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Most people are of average intelligence, +/- 1 SD, and can be expected to behave as others of similar intelligence would.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this as well.

However, I find those two quotes to be conflicted. The fact that most people of average intelligence are morons (in regards to poker at least) is what makes the game a lucrative venture for either the studious average person, or the person of higher intelligence capable of taking advantage of the typical average player. Hence, the fundamental reason I play poker online for a living.

Edit: One other thought I forgot.

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, it's not nice to consider someone a moron just because they play poker a certain way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not nice. I'm a poker player.

[foofighter]

your read is the moron limps from SB so raise preflop! read irie post a few more times!

[Skip Brutale]

The shepherd has herded his flock.

Every single post after my original one agreed with my play and thinking. Then irieguy comes and disagrees. And every single post disagrees with my play and thinking.

Basically this post could have been me and irieguy, no one else seems to have an original thought. This thread is very telling.

So ireiguy, when someone completes their sb durring 25/50 I should push all-in with A6? That is basically the heart of the essay you wrote right.

[Irieguy]

PM me if you'd like and we can discuss it more.

Irieguy