overcards+gutnutstraight+backdoor diamond - raise on flop? [Archive]

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afficax

01-21-2005, 12:55 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
generally loose passive table.
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

should i have reraised on the flop? in retrospect maybe i should have - i had 13 outs (give 4 for J and T, 4 8's, 1 backdoor flush). but what if i'm playing against other draws that steal my outs or 2pair, or the spade flush?
Turn: (11 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (16 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 19 BB

Grease

01-21-2005, 01:01 AM

No, don't reraise. You're being too generous with your overcard outs, and there's a 2-flush on the board. There aren't enough people to add enough value to your hand. You're certainly calling, but reraising would not be +EV IMO.

MercTec

01-21-2005, 01:03 AM

Your position sucks in relation to the raiser. I think calling was the right play. If you're on the button or behind the raiser, a 3 bet is a good idea as a straight up free card play.

Chairman Wood

01-21-2005, 01:15 AM

No, it just isn't for value. Clearly you're calling but you have to realize that your overcard outs aren't that good as they could give others a straight or flush and are vunerable to a redraw. FWIW, I would count you as having about 8 outs after doing some reduction for their dirtyness.

jonahmavesin

01-21-2005, 01:39 AM

Even if the outs were spotless, which they're not (because they coordinate with the board, because you'll often be dominated by a better kicker, and because additional overcards can come to invalidate a made pair like QKorA), you're still counting wrong. Spotless overcard outs are worth 3 outs each, not 4, because you're already holding one of each of them.

Chris Daddy Cool

01-21-2005, 02:00 AM

even contemplating 3-betting the flop is a substantial mistake.

Chairman Wood

01-21-2005, 02:06 AM

I'm counting wrong? I think you meant this reply for the orginal poster. However I still could have made a mistake and overvalued some.

GrunchCan

01-21-2005, 02:59 AM

Welcome to the forum.

You've overvalued your outs, by quite a few.

I put your outs at: Overcards=1.5 (not 4), Inside Straight=3 (not 4), BDF=1. There's also a BD Nut Straight (running K&Q) that's worth another 1.5. The total is 7, not 13.

I like your open-bet, but after it gets raised behind you, it's time to call.