Pot equity

[Peter-23]

Hi all,

Im not that experienced so this is probably a stupid question. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Lets say that me and one opponent are in the pot on the flop. I have the nut flush draw giving me 35% to get the flush at the river.

There is 2 small bet in the pot, and my opponent bet (now 3 small bet).

Now should I call?

My resoning is as follows.

If I call and I don't complete my flush on the turn and my opponent bet again there will be 3 big bet in the the pot giving me 3 to 1 pot odds. But at this stage I have 4.1 to 1 to get my flush and should fold.

Now should I really have called on the flop?
Whas my pot equity really 35%? Or was it 19.6%?

As you can see I am a bit confused on how to calculate the pot equity.

I would appriciate any help.

[Andy Howes]

You should most likely raise as a semibluff. Your chance of getting him to fold added to your chance of improving make it a good play. Plus, you've got an overcard right? I'd probably bet the turn too, lots of people call on the flop with the intention of folding on the turn.

[rmarotti]

Read "Small Stakes Hold 'Em" by Ed Miller. This question would get more answers in the Heads Up/Short Handed forum

[Peter-23]

Thanks for your help.

But perhaps I should have been more clear.

I have just purchased "Small stakes hold'em" and would like to know if I understand the context in the "Pot equity" section.

So the hand in my example is not my primary concern here, but if I have calculaded my pot equity correctly.

So if we dissregard the hand and just say we have a sure 9 outer, if they come I win and if they dont I lose.

On the flop I will have a 35% chans of winning and on a pot of 3 bets that would give me 1.05 small bet according to pot equity.

So I should not raise, just call. But then I probably wont have the odds to call on the turn.

Have I really calculated the equity correctly?
How does it work, or rather how do I use it in a real hand? (The book doesnt say).

[witeknite]

Welcome to the forums.

I worked through the logic of this when I started playing as well, so I guess it's a common beginner’s question for people that really think about the game. That's a good sign that you are thinking about these things at a theoretical level. The answer hinges on the chance of a free card play working. Before getting to that, let's define a scenario.

Say you have 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB. It's folded to the SB who just completes. The flop is 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. The SB bets into you.

At this point we are assuming you are behind to at least a pair of 8's. The only chance of winning is spiking a /images/graemlins/heart.gif. If you assume that a 4th /images/graemlins/heart.gif won't sink you, you have a 35% chance to win by the river. This would justify a 1SB call in a 3SB pot if there were no turn betting. Since villain will probably bet again if you call the flop, you will also have to call 1BB (2SB) to get to the river. You are right in that you won't have the odds to call that bet though. Since you don't have the odds to just call the flop bet if you are only going to see the turn, calling cannot be correct. This leaves raising and folding as your two remaining options. Folding always has an EV of 0, but you are giving up 1SB in equity by doing so. This brings us to the raise.

If you are very confident that you opponent will not 3-bet or stop-n-go, raising for the free card could be a viable option. There are 3SB in the pot when it's to you. If you raise and villain just calls and will check to you on the turn, you are getting 2:1 as a 1.85:1 dog. This makes your EV for this play 0.04 of a SB. As you can see, your edge is razor thin so you would have to about 95% sure that it will work. If you think villain will call a turn and/or river bet, this number could drop some due to implied odds.

Now that you understand the logic behind this situation, let me just say that in 75k hands, I don't remember ever being in this situation. Usually there will be more limpers, or SB will raise pre-flop when folded to and you will dump you hand then. If you do get to the flop, your hand will most likely have some other redeeming qualities like a low pair, an over card, or a back door str8 draw giving you more equity.

I hope this helps.

WiteKnite

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]

Lets say that me and one opponent are in the pot on the flop. I have the nut flush draw giving me 35% to get the flush at the river.

There is 2 small bet in the pot, and my opponent bet (now 3 small bet).

Now should I call?


[/ QUOTE ]

There are several concepts at play here. Ignore everyone talking about the free card play, they're talking tactics while I think you are asking a theory question.

Pot equity is your hand's overall 'share' of the pot based on its chances of winning. In the example, your pot equity changed as your draw got thinner on the turn. Equity is more useful in thinking about your edge in a multiway pot. In a multiway pot, the pot is big enough to continue past the turn with a draw, and you want to know whether additional bets and raises on the flop or turn have a positive expectation.

For instance, if you have the nut flush draw and are in a 5 way pot, your fair share of the pot is 20% (1 out of 5). Your draw has an equity of 35% on the flop, as it will come in 35% of the time by the river. The difference between 20% and 35% is an edge in pot equity. If you can raise a bet after all the players have called (ensuring that you trap them all for an additional bet), you can exploit this edge.
If you miss on the turn, your equity drops, and you can no longer raise for value.

What makes the example you gave different is that your equity (35%) is less than your share (50% since you are heads up). Therefore, additional bets and raises have a negative expectation if you know they will be called.

The operational principle in the situation you described is called 'effective odds.' While your hand may have a 1 in 3 chance of becoming the best hand by the river, there are two cards to come and two more betting rounds. Since you still have to call another big bet on the turn the 80% of the time you miss, you can't use the flop-to-river odds to determine if a call is correct. The odds you're getting aren't nearly as good as they might seem. For a less mangled treatment of this subject, see The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky, pp 49-53.

hope this helps,
donger

P.S. - try http://www.twodimes.net/poker/ for an odds calculator

[Peter-23]

Thanks for some great responses.

I think I understand now. Believe it was the part of my fair share that i didn't get before.


If I have understod correctly you could say that

"My pot equity is the optimal bet size to get my total share in the pot = my current winning chanses."


Lets go through a theoretical example to see if I got it right.

Lets say we have the situation you described.

Me and four opponents have seen the flop with one SB preflop (total 5 SB). I am last and three check, the opponent to the right of me bet.

My pot equity at this stage will be 35% * 6=2.1

If I call and everyone else fold, my share will go from 20% to 2/7=29%, and since my total investment is less than 35% I havent invested to much.

If I raise and get called my share will be 3/9=33%, also ok.

Worst case would be if I raise and he capped since I would have to go over the equity bet. If i called my share would be 4/11=36% so I would invest to much.

Theoretically of cause, just one more bet in the pot from the others would make a cap ok since 4/12=33%.


Of cause the argument of a free card (and others) effects the winning chanses so it can't be ignored in practice. I will have to work out what different situations are worth and ad it to the chanses the cards give me.


Is this correct thinking and the ide of this concept?

Thanks again. /images/graemlins/smile.gif