Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

[Jcardshark]

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello again,
I just had a few questions...
1) Whe is the best time to play in the $215s? I have had great resulat between 6 and 9 at night but it seems to me that the games get really tough around 4 or 5 in the morning. This could be because I could be getting tired or pissed from bad beats which I take all too often.
2)Has anyone read the satellite book by McEvoy? Is it any good? Will t tell me anythint I dont already know?
3) How often should I expect to lose to a worse hand. I ask this because when I lose, 90% of the time it is to a hand where i am 60/40 or worse. It seems like when I have Ax aganist something like KJ, I lose about 75% of the time. These numbers are over about 200 loses, so I am not sure if that is a large enough sample, but 75% seems rather dumb to me.
Well, thanks for the help. Hopefully if I lose to someone at the tables, it will be you all, and not some random fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Nighttime, EST
2. It's ok, but pretty basic. More geared for STT's at tournament sites that pay out one place only, methinks. Whether it will teach you anything depends on what you know. Kinda cool tourney walkthrough at the end though.
3. Expect to win a proper %, and expect that when you are running bad, it will seem WAY worse than it is, and when running good, it will seem like you are just getting normal distribution. Trust me on this.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
3. expect that when you are running bad, it will seem WAY worse than it is, and when running good, it will seem like you are just getting normal distribution. Trust me on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

For most ametuer poker players, this is the case, but a great player should definately be able to recognize when he's running bad/good, and approximately how bad/good he's running. If you can't do this, you will have a lot of trouble on your way up.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. expect that when you are running bad, it will seem WAY worse than it is, and when running good, it will seem like you are just getting normal distribution. Trust me on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

For most ametuer poker players, this is the case, but a great player should definately be able to recognize when he's running bad/good, and approximately how bad/good he's running. If you can't do this, you will have a lot of trouble on your way up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Some handle it better than others. I, for one, am an "others", but I still do ok.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
3) How often should I expect to lose to a worse hand. I ask this because when I lose, 90% of the time it is to a hand where i am 60/40 or worse. It seems like when I have Ax aganist something like KJ, I lose about 75% of the time. These numbers are over about 200 loses, so I am not sure if that is a large enough sample, but 75% seems rather dumb to me.
Well, thanks for the help. Hopefully if I lose to someone at the tables, it will be you all, and not some random fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whenever I see a statement like this from someone playing the 215s, my advice is to drop down. Even if you have the game to be a winning player at the 215s, you're not emotionally ready to handle the swings.

Bad beats don't do you in at the 215s, bad play (often induced by your fair share of bad beats) do. (Or an inadequate bankroll, but that's another story)

Not personal, it just seems that every post from someone newly venturing into the 215s has some statement like the one above. Get ready for an "emotional bitch-slapping" if it already "feels" like your Ax loses to KJ 75% of the time, etc.

I actually suck out more than my fair share, but that's because I choose to believe that - if I lose a couple I should win, I'm even more due for my hands to hold up/for me to win coin flips/for me to suck out because I'm special. I've found that's the best attitude to have in dealing with tilt-issues that can affect your play.

Of course, if we both played 1,000 SNGs at the $215 level and compared all-in stats, they'd probably be exactly the same. Which would mean that I'm even more due to go on a suckout run...

[ChrisV]

Why? I don't particularly care how good/bad I'm running. I usually have a rough idea, and I can tell approximately by how much I'm profiting (or not) but why does it really matter?

I second Daliman - I rarely feel like I'm running really well. When I take down 4 dominating hands in a row, then I know, but if I win 5 almost coinflips in a row, well, that's just the natural order of things isnt it? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Rexagnirk]

[ QUOTE ]

3) How often should I expect to lose to a worse hand. I ask this because when I lose, 90% of the time it is to a hand where i am 60/40 or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
This does not make sense to me. Do you mean "90% of the times I lose" or "I lose 90% of the times when I'm 60/40 or worse"? And is that worse for you or your opponent?

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like when I have Ax aganist something like KJ, I lose about 75% of the time. These numbers are over about 200 loses, so I am not sure if that is a large enough sample, but 75% seems rather dumb to me.


[/ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you have "selective memory" - a fairly common thing that means people have a tendency to remember when they're unlucky. It doesn't sound like you have the actual data (It seems like..), (I lose about 75% of the time..).

You need to get the data and look at it. Human instincts can't be trusted here.

[Irieguy]

Well, I'll be the bad guy and say what Daliman and ZJ wouldn't for obvious reasons:

You are going to get absolutely smoked at the $215's. Your mental framework is constructed from an approach to the game that cannot prevail at that level.

Don't take it personally... I don't play the $215's either.

Either drop way down or make sure that you get more gambling pleasure from $215 SNGs than you would from sitting in the Keno lounge drinking Heines... because you would do better in the lounge.

Irieguy

PS- I think it's OK to sincerely warn people from time to time on this forum... it's not ALL variance.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like when I have Ax aganist something like KJ, I lose about 75% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, welcome to the forums. If you've read around here enough, you probably realize already that in order to be a winning poker player, you first have to be a LUCKY PERSON. This is the most important characteristic of a winning player (see Hansen, Raymer, etc). Now, it seems like you are an UNLUCKY PERSON. This is a problem. You might consider trying chess or scrabble, where being a LUCKY PERSON is a bit less important. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[mungpo]

Not to be a jerk, but why do you feel compelled to play the $215's? From what I have read, it appears you are insecure about your play at the $215 level. Why not just start at small buy-in's and work your way up?

[Jcardshark]

[ChrisV]

2 weeks is not a particularly long period to break even at the $215's. I made $50,000 in the last 6 months of last year, playing in my spare time (I have a full time job). In the middle of that I had a stretch where from high point to low point i lost about $6,000. I have also broken even for my most recent approx. 300 tournaments. It happens. You should question your game during these periods but worrying about "how often you should lose to worse hands" is stupid. Play around with twodimes or Pokerstove and familiarise yourself with the win percentages of various confrontations. Then put your money in when it's right and let the rest take care of itself.

[Jcardshark]

[Myst]

If I were you, I would move down to the $100s, b/c it seems to me you arent emotionally tough enough to take the normal swings at the $200+15s.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? I don't particularly care how good/bad I'm running. I usually have a rough idea, and I can tell approximately by how much I'm profiting (or not) but why does it really matter?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you make a mistake in checkers, tic tac toe, or chess, you are likely to lose because of it, and it is extremely rare that you will win due to a mistake in any of these games. That makes learning easy.

In poker, the same is not true. Many players will play poorly, and get extremely lucky, and never realize how lucky they are. They will move up in limits, until their luck catches up to them, and they lose everything. The converse is also true. Many good players will run really bad early on, and won't realize it. They may adopt losing strategies, or even quit the game completely.

If you are able to pinpoint your luck (or lack there of), you can make the appropriate decisions. If you get 22 all-in vs 99 preflop, and hit your set of 2's, you shouldn't be thinking, "I made a great play, I'll do that again." or "Gee, I'm so much better than this fool, I'm gonna move up in limits". That's a very obvious scenario, but most scenarios will not be that obvious. It is crucial to your success that you are able to figure out what's going on for yourself.

[Laughingboy]

Yeah, just wait until you become 110% convinced that the poker sites are all rigged to create suckouts. That's when it gets really fun.

I'm only a lowly $33 player, so what do I know, but just to flap my gums, it seems to me that you've got some talent, but you're reading way too much into one good run. I think taking that nice bankroll back down to the 100s or even the 50s and testing your sustainable rate over about 1000 tourneys there is a much wiser choice. You'll get over the "but I ALWAYS get sucked out on" jitters at a much lower pricetag. In fact, if you really do have the game to win at $215, you should still show a nice profit.

The best advice of all, though, is keep reading this forum.

Best of luck.

Sean

[Scuba Chuck]

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The best advice of all, though, is keep reading this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Frankly, I rather he didn't. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[lacky]

yeah.....he should drop down to the $109's