Step 4 bubble

[bxpeter]

This is a step 4 PP single table tournament.

Top 4 players advance to the step 5 and 5th place gets to repeat the step 4.

To this point, I haven't done much at all.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1230)
MP (t3950)
Button (t2790)
Hero (t930)
BB (t1100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t930 (All-In)</font>

Considering prize structure and stacks, should I be pushing expecting BB to fold most of his hands or wait for a better hand myself?

[Irieguy]

You got the concept right, but the victim wrong. BB only has 800 chips after posting and he knows it's between you and him for the boobie prize. His standards won't be that high for this hand. It's just unfortunate that the two other short stacks are to your left. You have the worst situation possible for a flat payout on the bubble.

You probably would have been better served to steal some chips from the leader a little bit earlier, since you could have seen this coming when the blinds moved up to 150/300. But once you end up in this situation, you are probably better off just folding for as long as possible and waiting for somebody to misplay it. They usually do.

Irieguy

[Che]

Irieguy-

This is the last time our hero will have any folding equity at all.

Do you still advocate folding when the other short stacks can simply fold until hero blinds out or doubles?

Later,
Che

[Gotmilk]

The way I look at this situation is that you are jockeying with position vs the big blind. He can afford to fold crap vs you, but you cannot afford to give up the chips in the middle to him or you will fall far behind him. As bad as T5s is, it has a reasonable chance to be the best hand, and you will still win a bunch of the time when you are called. In my opinion you made the right play.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Irieguy-

This is the last time our hero will have any folding equity at all.

Do you still advocate folding when the other short stacks can simply fold until hero blinds out or doubles?

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

True, the other short stacks can simply fold until you bust or double. You know that, and I know that... but for some reason most opponents don't understand this.

Once you lose folding equity, you will have a higher probability of making the money by holding on as long as possible. You can't make it easy on your opponents. They may be able to fold pocket 7's once... but rarely will they do it twice.

If I could buy directly into the bubble of a step tournament with 1.6 big blinds, I would do it.

Irieguy

PS- I'd be interested to hear Adanthar's take on this hand. He seems to have the best grasp of flat-payout bubble play on this forum.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
PS- I'd be interested to hear Adanthar's take on this hand. He seems to have the best grasp of flat-payout bubble play on this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me that one two days after I screw up on the bubble of a 4 through a really bad mental lapse /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hrm...T5s isn't all that bad. It's actually just a little bit worse than a random hand. And it'd take a monumental screwup by either of the other short stacks to get you out of this before the BB hits again.

My gut says this is a push. BB has got to be folding down to at least top 40% so you've got at least *that* much FE. But boy, did you ever need to steal 2 hands ago...and I think if you wind up with 72o you fold and hope for the best.

[bxpeter]

he called with ATo and flopped something and I will be giving the step 4 another go.

I agree that stealing a couple of hands earlier would have been much better, but I don't think I had any opportunities - it was always raised before me.