Bears v Browns

OK..


how much of a dog were the Bears to cover the spread when they had the ball with 3 minutes remaining at about their own 20 trailing 21-7??


My Guess..


2/1 to score the first td

7/1 to recover the onside kick

10/1 to score the second td

6/1 to win in o/t with a td.


that works out at.... 1847/1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Cheers,


Keith

gotta be one of the worst bad sports beat ever...like nygiants..fumbling when a knee would win..jmho..gl

Well cut those down a bit because onside kicks get recovered historically between 25-35% so only about 3/1 there. The TD percentage is probably a bit high, at that point you have to figure that the opponent is rattled so the Bears rate a big edge to score first. TDs end OT about 35% of the time so if you add in the odds of the Bears winning that one probably is closer to say 4/1. Still the odds are pretty tough. I was watching that game and thinking to myself why the hell are the two coaches arguing with the refs. It was 41 seconds left and the ball at the 15. They both must have seen it coming /images/smile.gif

Da odds may be correct here, but what if Ditka was da Coach? Bearsss are da heavy favorite. However, I did have one more heart attack then normal during da game dis weekend. Heresss a shout out to da boysss in Joliet!

I read a stat.... when the opposing team KNOW the onside kick is coming... it is only recovered approx 15% of the time by the kicking team... hence 7/1.

it wasone hell of a miricle longshot for the bears to win, but to also beat the spread,,,hey paranoia could start here..good thing this isn't internet poker..lol..gl..i agree with 7-1 here..gl

Then you must not have watched the MNF game because this season (at least) the odds are 31% in an expected onside situation and 100% in unexpected. The odds are a bit higher this year for the unexpected, but I read elsewhere that over a recent 4 year stretch it was right around 25%. Of course some kickers are regarded as masters of the onside, guys like Morten Andersen. Bottom line though is despite its almost "miracle" status, it was bound to happen sometime. Miracles happen all the time, just in different ways. How about the Troy Brown catch, looked just like Franco Harris catching the ball and running to the end zone against a stunned defense. The immaculate reception met its match, albeit in a less meaningful situation.