If it weren't for bad luck........

[RokyMtnGamlr]

I have been playing poker seriously for the last 4 months and have lost consistenly. I have read and reread Mat Hilger, Pil H. TJ's books and Sklansky. I'm not a dummy I did get through college with a BSEE at a GPA of 3.48. I under stand the math the odds, probability, pot odds, implied odds. I play about 18-22% of my hands I can read boards farely well, PT has my prflop raises at about 5-7% long term. I just seem to lose more than I win. I'm woundering if some people just should not play poker because their luck just sucks. /images/graemlins/confused.gif I just don't play the books, which I figure every body reads to some level. I very my bets, I will play a few hands loose to keep my image at the tables mixed, but I don't lose a lot with a few hand like that. I slow play some hands, play most strait up.
Like today another losing sesion. Got BB with a pocket pair of aces, flopped three bet out, got raised post flop(A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) reraised and capped by the raiser. Turn comes 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif guy goes al-in, for a good inplied pot of 7to1 I call, he flips up a 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif,8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, river J /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I feel like I just got hit 50,00 volts. I was stunded I just left the table. A few hands before, I get a BB with 3K's by a guy playing 2, 5 os. he pulls a full house, with runner 5's. I just seem to get more than my share of BB by crap hands. It seems like internet players will call and raise anything to the river. My top 15 starting hands has lost over 4000.00 in the last 4 months. I raise when I should, and fold losers, I can even fold pocket aces if I feel I'm beat. I just get lots of bad luck it seems. Should I keep playing or find something that need less luck? I'm to the point now that I'm so gun shy I don't know what to beleive any more.
Jinxed
RMG

[Niediam]

Approximately how many hands have you played during your losing streak and what limit(s) are you playing?

[UBPLayer]

The answer is two-fold. And let me preface by saying that it is ONLY relevant if you are a player that plays by the same name (or very similar) on UB at the 1/2 limits. If it is not you, please accept my appologies in advance.

Sorry to tell you but it is both. You are both a bad player and you are unlucky.

The reason that I say that you are a bad player is that I have played with you and have taken your money.

The reason that I say that you are unlucky is that someone who acts like you on the table and starts cussing out opponents for no apparant reason (other than them taking your money) deserves to be unlucky and if there is a god, he has a hand in this.

I contend that if you change your ways, you will see a change in the results.

Or...if you like...keep up the "good" work.

Anonymous

[olavfo]

It's not only about how you play, but who you play against. It doesn't matter how good you are if you sit down at a table where the majority is better than you.

olavfo

[The Truth]

Well, here is an answer to your question. You need practice, and do this...

Play fewer hands, and play more agressive.
Try doing this. Playing ONLY very strong hands, do not play pocket pairs lower than 77, do no play suited connectors or AX suited at any time. Always raise when first in, and fold everything but AA-JJ and AK to a raise, reraise these hands.

Note: these are extremely tight starting standards, but you will win money if you play this tightly and agressivly, not the most you can win, but at least win money. Also, Im sure there are many things you will need to work on postflop, so just play tight and practice. Once you become a good player you can play looser.

my 2 cents.

[CMonkey]

During times like these, it's very important to be brutally honest with yourself. You may be running bad but can you attribute all your losses to bad beats? Or are your losses due in part to bad luck and in part to bad play?

There are always ways to improve your play; no one plays perfect poker. Take all the hands where you lost the most money and analyze them. Look at things from both your perspective and that of your opponent(s). Did your opponents really play that badly after all when considering pot odds, table texture, and such? How could you have lost less money given similar considerations? Even saving a big bet here and there really adds up fast.

This was my situation. Recently, I had been losing a ton of money. While not many players will be raking in the cash with 4% hands-won, by looking at my big losing hands, I realized my approach was fundamentally flawed for the tables I was sitting at. I was picking the wrong tables; I was playing in such a way to drive the weak players out and contesting too many pots against players that were better than me. I was losing more money than I should have been for a given losing hand. I wasn't manipulating pot size properly. And so on.

You didn't provide enough information on the hand to make an accurate determination, but it's entirely possible that Mr. 85s was playing properly and this wasn't a bad beat at all. What limit was it? Of the players that saw the flop, what were their playing styles? What was the table texture in general? What position were you? Were there a lot of players seeing the flop? I find it hard to believe that his play postflop was correct (would have had to be a rather big pot), but depending on the size of the pot and the type of players still in at the time, the turn play could have been entirely appropriate, or at least not that bad. Who knows.

When you're consistently losing, never start off by assuming you're losing due to luck. Assume you're losing because of poor play; look for your mistakes. Only when you can demonstrate that you're making fewer and smaller mistakes than your opponents should you write off your losses as bad luck.

[RokyMtnGamlr]

[ QUOTE ]
The answer is two-fold. And let me preface by saying that it is ONLY relevant if you are a player that plays by the same name (or very similar) on UB at the 1/2 limits. If it is not you, please accept my appologies in advance.

Sorry to tell you but it is both. You are both a bad player and you are unlucky.

The reason that I say that you are a bad player is that I have played with you and have taken your money.

The reason that I say that you are unlucky is that someone who acts like you on the table and starts cussing out opponents for no apparant reason (other than them taking your money) deserves to be unlucky and if there is a god, he has a hand in this.

I contend that if you change your ways, you will see a change in the results.

Or...if you like...keep up the "good" work.

Anonymous

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry UB Player if i let go of steam at a table you played at. I don't think I have ever played a 1/2 table on ub. I mostly play .10/.25 and .50/$1 no-limit tables. I try not to tilt while online, as it not good play. But I have tilted a few times. I do not cuss out other players, in fact I run most of time with the chats off.
You are correct about being a bad play I never claim to be good. Please accecpt my apology if I have vented on you at any time. I think god is a holdem player and a pretty fare one at that /images/graemlins/cool.gif.
Tanks for the input and I will watch out for any comments on the chat if it is on.
RMG

[snakehead]

one word: suicide

[Francis]

[ QUOTE ]
one word: suicide

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Snake, that was useful

[EarlCat]

I read an Annie Duke column once about limiting your losses. She said if you lose 30 big bets in one session, its time to leave. You're either having a bad night, tilting, or you're at a table too tough for your game. Either way, get out. I have a hunch it will take longer to lose your next $4000 that way.

[Dov]

If you are truly looking for help, I'll give it to you. If what I am about to say upsets you, then you are not really looking to improve, just to whine.

Hopefully some of the other newer players will benefit from this response as well.

Why do you REALLY play poker?

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing poker seriously for the last 4 months

[/ QUOTE ]

This is nothing. How long do you think it should take before you are a winning player? It takes years for most people.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a dummy I did get through college with a BSEE at a GPA of 3.48

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this have to do with anything? I'm a high school dropout and I can beat the game.

[ QUOTE ]
I under stand the math the odds, probability, pot odds, implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is obvious from the rest of your post that you do not understand the math. You need to realize that you are not as good as you think you are and inject some humility into your game.

[ QUOTE ]
I play about 18-22% of my hands... PT has my prflop raises at about 5-7% long term. I just seem to lose more than I win.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, just playing a TAG style by the numbers doesn't entitle you to win. Winning is something you do first, and the numbers will reflect that.

Secondly, how many hands do you have in PT? I'm guessing that it is far below 100K which is the minimum sample size to really start getting a solid long run picture. If you don't understand why, then you don't understand the math as I pointed out before.

PT will tell you exactly how much you win or lose, you don't have to guess. Not only that, but it will tell you where you are losing from. Post some of your stats in SS and let them pick you apart. (humility again)

[ QUOTE ]
I'm woundering if some people just should not play poker because their luck just sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is proof that you don't understand the math. This is also proof that you are not playing aggressively enough anymore.

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't play the books, which I figure every body reads to some level. I very my bets, I will play a few hands loose to keep my image at the tables mixed, but I don't lose a lot with a few hand like that. I slow play some hands, play most strait up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing that almost every hand you play 'creatively' is costing you money in ways you can't even imagine. In addition, I have a feeling that you didn't understand the books either.

Start over with the books and this time read and reread Theory of Poker and Small Stakes Poker until you are a winning player. Don't bother with anything else yet.

In addition, stay at the play money tables until you can crush them. Try not to play both limit and NL, initially. Pick one and learn how to win at it.

As a rule, limit is easier to learn because there is more information about it and it is a simpler game.

[ QUOTE ]
Got BB with a pocket pair of aces, flopped three bet out, got raised post flop(A 6 4 ) reraised and capped by the raiser. Turn comes 9 guy goes al-in, for a good inplied pot of 7to1 I call, he flips up a 5 ,8 , river J . I feel like I just got hit 50,00 volts. I was stunded I just left the table. A few hands before, I get a BB with 3K's by a guy playing 2, 5 os. he pulls a full house, with runner 5's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Post some hands in SS. See if your logic matches the other winning players' thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
I just seem to get more than my share of BB by crap hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get bad beat by good hands?

How much exactly is your share anyway? (Lack of understanding of the math)

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like internet players will call and raise anything to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good thing. If you don't understand why, then don't play anything but play money until you do.

[ QUOTE ]
My top 15 starting hands has lost over 4000.00 in the last 4 months.

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually, it's not the seat that is unlucky, it's the ass in seat. Post some hands and stats in SS.

[ QUOTE ]
I raise when I should, and fold losers, I can even fold pocket aces if I feel I'm beat. I just get lots of bad luck it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, you can fold aces? You must be a great player to be capable of such a laydown. I bet you can't fold kings though. Even when an A hits the flop and it's bet and called to you.

This game is not about making big laydowns post flop (and folding one pair is not usually a big laydown anyway). It is about making big laydowns preflop and figuring out how to win the pot when the flop misses you, as well as how to extract the maximum when the flop hits you.

[ QUOTE ]
I just get lots of bad luck it seems. Should I keep playing or find something that need less luck? I'm to the point now that I'm so gun shy I don't know what to beleive any more.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should definitely quit playing for a while if you can't play perfectly. That doesn't mean you should give up forever. It means you should learn how to play.


You should understand a few things here.

1. You are not that good.
2. Even when you are good, you do not deserve to win.
3. Luck is what makes this a good game to play in the first place.
4. Whining about bad luck will not make you a better player.
5. Denial and Pride will kill your ability to improve.
6. 4 months is nothing and neither are your achievements in other fields
7. Poker is complicated which is what makes it so interesting

Good luck. I hope this helps someone.

Dov

[K C]

It's tough to say too much here since you haven't given us much to work with, and the comments so far have been very good. Let me add that if you feel you are unlucky, you will be. Now this isn't some sort of supernatural thing, it's to do with the fact that if you feel unlucky, you will play unlucky, and you will be unlucky. Among other things, this makes us feel entitled when we get something, causing us to overplay our good hands at times. Or, we'll fold when we shouldn't, anticipating bad things to come.

In any case, if you're not playing confidently, you're not playing well at all. This can be tough when you go through a bad run of cards, but you have to understand deeply that cards even out over time, and forget all about this stuff and take a longer term view. If it's a matter of skill, you need to work harder on how to fix it.

Books can be helpful in teaching you how to think like a poker player, but they aren't a substitute for that thinking. You could be at a table where the other 9 people haven't read a thing on poker, you've read dozens of books, and they could kick your butt because they are playing to the style of the particular game, and you're playing to something else.

This sounds easier than it is, and I don't want to sound too harsh here, but figure out what YOU are doing wrong, not just call yourself unlucky and try to use this as a crutch.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com

[badcompany299]

a little rough dov.

how many ppl do you know that graduate from a higher learning institution with a 3.48? not many

also, how many ppl do you know that can [censored] on a 1,000 dollars a month and not hurt his "real" bankroll?

with a degree like that he probly has more money than 99% of the poker players in the world....

and judgeing by ur comments probly 10x more money than you. normally i would never say money matters, but then again this is a poker forum.

im sure he appreciates ur ideas on the game but its not necesarry to degrade someones lifestyle beyond the realm of the card table.

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
how many ppl do you know that graduate from a higher learning institution with a 3.48? not many

also, how many ppl do you know that can [censored] on a 1,000 dollars a month and not hurt his "real" bankroll?

with a degree like that he probly has more money than 99% of the poker players in the world....

and judgeing by ur comments probly 10x more money than you. normally i would never say money matters, but then again this is a poker forum.

im sure he appreciates ur ideas on the game but its not necesarry to degrade someones lifestyle beyond the realm of the card table.

[/ QUOTE ]

The whole point is that he feels that he is entitled to win because he got good grades and passed a test or two.

That's not how it works in the real world and that's not how it works at the card table.

As far as the money, it doesn't matter how much he makes. I used to own a computer company and now play cards. So what?

I don't care what he does for a living. He asked why he isn't winning and I told him. Coddling his ego won't help him win.

Sorry if it sounds rough, but this game is rough.

It's easy to play when you're getting good cards. Let's see what happens to you when the cards run cold. That's when you need to really understand what you're doing or you will lose your mind along with your bankroll.

Dov

[BradL]

[ QUOTE ]
She said if you lose 30 big bets in one session, its time to leave.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is simply bad advice unless you have absolutely no control over your emotions at the table or can recognize that you are outclassed (in which case you should have never sat down).

-Brad

[Sparks]

As far as I'm concerned, luck is not really a part of poker. If you think luck has anything to do with your long term results in poker, the game will be very frustrating to you. I get great pleasure during each session from trying to play as correctly as I can. My win/loss results for any particular session are, strangely perhaps, not that relevent.

Sparks

[Bad Lobster]

Thanks, CMonkey; your ideas are more constructive than most of the "you need to learn to play better" posts in this thread.

I'm in more or less the same boat as you: I've been losing rather steadily over several months, and figuring out just where I'm going wrong isn't easy or obvious. Could you tell us a bit more about what you realized you were doing wrong, and how you figured it out, and how you fixed the problems?

I empathize with the original poster. To read some of the literature, you'd think that anybody who's read a book and can add should be able to beat all those dummies they're playing against. I've read a book and understood it and I'm still not finding it that easy.

Oh--one last comment: In your post, you recommend analyzing all the biggest losing hands to figure out where you're going wrong. That's making an assumption that the problem is in the way you play the big hands and not in the little ones.

[zbrusko]

Wow. Dov's response hit me pretty hard, because I see a lot of similarities between myself and the original poster, though my GPA wasn't nearly that high! Anyway, I couldn't agree more, and lately I have been in this "it is just a bad run" way of thinking, when in reality, I probably started with a good run that should have netted me more winnings had I been a better player. For what it's worth, I've become a bit re-inspired. Thanks for the reply post!

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
This is simply bad advice unless you have absolutely no control over your emotions at the table or can recognize that you are outclassed (in which case you should have never sat down).

[/ QUOTE ]

For someone losing 4 grand at dollar tables, it's golden advice.

[CMonkey]

I took up my biggest losers and looked at the opponents I went to the flop with. Alarmingly, I tended to go to the flop with the tight-aggressives. So I then gathered up some full session logs and replayed all the hands quickly. The first thing I noticed right off was that the table VP$IP was generally slightly below 30% at the tables and pre-flop raising was fairly healthy; there weren't enough loose-passives. Poker is not about showing that you're the best necessarily; it about identifying those weaker than you and taking their money. Bad on the ego because it forces you to admit that ILoveToBluff over in Seat 6 and DareYouToCheckRaise on the button are better than you, and really, you're just not THAT good. Decent, but you've got a lot to learn.

The next thing I noticed was that, initially, what weaker players there were did follow me in when I raised up the pots, making me a good chunk of change initially. But then they caught on and stopped following me. They may be loose-passive, but they aren't outright stupid. They notice when someone sits down at the table that doesn't fit in with the normal limp-call-call-call behavior. A whole lot of my aggression tightened up the table, and I wasn't leaving quickly enough after the table did so. It forced me to pay much more attention to position to be sure my raises knocked out the good players and not the bad ones. And it's not so much they paid attention to what cards I played per se; they only saw the cards in front of them. I bluffed, they didn't notice or care. I reraised, all they saw was their top two pair, and came back at my set. But they reflexively tightened up; my misdirected aggression made them play better.

I called way too damn much. I fell into the trap where, because I was playing tight, I just couldn't let my hands go sometimes. On average I just had such better cards! But meanwhile, the supposedly weaker players were playing their "hit the flop very hard or fold" strategy. And I'd call down most times with second best hands. Part of being aggressive is raising instead of calling. But other part is folding instead of calling; this is the part I was missing.

I guess I got too caught up in the whole stats game. "15-25% VP$IP w/ 8% PFR, 2.0 post-flop aggression" is the way to go and all that. This is asinine. No one playing style can possibly be effective against all table textures. On average, this may be what your stats should be perhaps. Doesn't mean you play that way at every table.

Regarding books, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. If you're sure you understand a concept thoroughly, you have a playing tool at your disposal. Understand a concept badly, and all you have is another weakness you didn't previously making you an even worse player. See my point above about what exactly aggression means. Being a good tight-aggressive player is a wonderful thing. Being a bad tight-aggressive player is a very expensive proposition.

And you're right; there are mistakes everywhere, not just in the big hands. But the big mistakes hurt more than the little ones. When you pull up a list of played hands, how do you decide which ones to analyze, where the big errors are? Sure, missing value bets is bad, but losing because you didn't protect your hand with a raise is much, much worse. You can play well and lose 5BB; you can win 5BB and make a ton of mistakes because that 5BB really should have been 8BB. So as a crutch to try to quickly identify where the big mistakes are, I single out the big loss hands first before moving on to the others. And yeah, sometimes I find I didn't mess up, I was just going to lose money on the hand. At least it makes the losses slightly more tolerable.

I'm sure that some of the more experienced players are probably rolling their eyes, "Well, duh, I could have told you that." But part of the learning process is making the mistakes for yourself and working through them.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

Don't know if you were playing cash or tournament. Also, you did not indicate if you bet pre flop, so I assume you did not. My observation:
-sometimes you can do everything right and still lose, that's poker... but I think
-you should have bet aggressively pre flop w/ AA, maybe he would have never even have been in the hand to begin with
-you need to know your opponent, how does he play, what are his starting hand requirements, will he chase, tight, loose, agressive, passive, etc
-you know how to read the board, but were you reading it? He was on a straight draw and a back door flush draw
-if you were playing a tourney, you need to finish in the money, might not be worth the call with the draw possibilities
-what was his position? you said you were BB, right? Did you check, and then he went all-in. It is usually better to act aggressively first.

I understand your frustration, this happens to the best of us. It is often difficult to evaluate the board when you have such a good hand. You need to be more aggressive all the way, less deceptive. Deception only really works on quality players. Your opponent was not a quality player (i.e. all-in w/ nothing but a draw, unless he was short stacked.) Play your hands for value. Go back to the basics and see if you luck changes. Good luck!

[Sasnak]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as I'm concerned, luck is not really a part of poker. If you think luck has anything to do with your long term results in poker, the game will be very frustrating to you. I get great pleasure during each session from trying to play as correctly as I can. My win/loss results for any particular session are, strangely perhaps, not that relevent.

Sparks

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice. People confuse luck one way or another with variance and bad play. I used to believe I was unlucky when I took beat after beat. I used to think my aces & sets never held up too.

A few weeks ago I took a 200BB slide in stride as I was playing well and replaying big losers in PT proved I was doing the right things.

Yesterday I played strong and won close to 50BB's in a couple of hours. Last night I played strongly and lost 30BB's in a couple of hours.

I only have < 15k hands at 1/2 but play as correctly as I can and I'm not perfect. LP's will catch cards. TAG's will push me off a pot. It pisses me off, but I've made the correct plays according to the odds and my reads, ie. GT+.

RckyMtn it isn't luck. It's variance and playing correctly. There are no guarantees. I'm currently happy with my 'overall' stats except for my winrate! LOL

But playing correctly will adjust itself over the longterm.

[CORed]

Some thoughts: Playing tight preflop is necessary but not sufficient for playing winning poker. This is especially true in no limit. You can play flawless preflop, but if your postflop play is bad, you will lose moeny.

You are not losing because of bad beats. The big hands you lose when you had a huge edge are memorable, and they cost you a big chuck at once, but it's the leaks in other areas that are causing you to be a net loser.

Consider starting with limit. The decisions are less complex, and the opposition is uaually softer. There are also a lot more good books available than there are for no limit. It is true that skilled players (which you probably are not, at this point) have a bigger edge at no limit, but for this reason, the really bad players bust out or give up a lot faster than at limit. At limit, the bad players will get enough winning sessions to keep them coming back, even though they are overall losers.

It is not impossible that you are losing solely because of bad luck, but it is most likely that it is actually bad play.

[Bad Lobster]

Since you say you've been losing consistently since you started, the obvious conclusion is that you just aren't good enough and you never were. Book knowledge and a good head for math don't teach you the game; they only prepare you to start learning.

Have you considered playing for micro stakes until you've established a winning record? You can play for as low as 2 cents/4 cents on Paradise Poker. It's clear that you need to gain more experience, so why not keep those educational, losing sessions cheap?

There's another benefit to playing for chump change, especially when you're first starting out and learning to cultivate a professional mindset. That is that you'll learn to think about the game and not the money. It's a lot easier to smile and accept the lesson learned when your opponent's miracle card only beats you out of 30 cents. Forcing yourself to earn the money back at the same stakes level will teach you patience and cure you of the impulse to throw more money at your losses.

[schroedy]

I think he recommended starting with the biggest losers.

I have Pokertracker and it pretty much stopped me from thinking that, for example, AJo is a good hand.

I am now losing the most money with double broadway suited type hands . . . especially when facing a raise.

After that, there will be further leaks to fix.

Another nice area for investigation is the BIG WIN column because I would venture to guess that most of our biggest pots, in virtually every case, come from the most horrible suckouts (by us) that you could ever imagine.

But I think it is damn good advice to subject his play to the most intense scrutiny. And to do that he has to start somewhere.

[cpk]

Being a bad tight-aggressive player is a very expensive proposition.

I've graduated from bad TA to "OK" TA, so I can speak from experience. Bad TAs don't lose money unless they are playing only against other TAs--their TA-ness keeps them from getting hurt too badly.

But they don't win much, either. Even in a ring full of better TAs, what usually happens is a slow, grinding away of the bankroll.

[Dov]

If you are looking for specific mistakes, I would start with checking how often you cold call a raise PF. I would bet that you are absolutely hemmoraging money from this single mistake.

The only way to go, though, is to post hands in the appropriate forums and try to understand the responses you get.

I'm glad my earlier post helped someone. Please understand that I'm not trying to be callous, but to present the situation as frankly as possible.

The negative consequences of gambling denial are serious and can snowball quickly.

BTW, to the OP, if you don't already do so, you may want to check out the psych forum. There is a lot of interesting discussion about how people cope with the swings in this game.

Best of luck to everyone.

Dov

[jimymat]

The first 6 months iI started out I look back and truely believe I was on a losimg streak.{ along with a lil newbie } Stick it out and study the game.