Bubble battle of the blinds

[Lloyd]

We're down to 5 players and I'm solidly in 3rd place sitting in the BB. The SB is the chip leader and has been (appropriately) raising a lot. I've re-raised him twice when it was folded to him in the SB and he's folded both times.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG (t2900)
MP (t565)
Button (t120)
<font color="#C00000">SB (t4495)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1920)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?????

[Marcotte]

Hmm... this is interesting. What was the buy-in? Were both his previous raises min-raises too? Were you worried he was setting you up?

I'd push, since the most likely worst case scenario is a coinflip, and he might fold again. I don't mind taking a coin-flip here because trying to limp into the money will hurt your ROI, and if you win, you will be chip leader and can raise every un-opened pot.

Not sure I'm right though. Would like to hear responses from the more experienced players. I have a feeling this will be a devisive one because the two short stacks are so short.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling this will be a devisive one because the two short stacks are so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it won't. CC'ing is better than folding which is much much much better than pushing.

[sofere]

I think this is a good spot for the ol' stop n go, any thoughts?

[Big Limpin']

Certainly not. Why would you risk it all hoping that he airballed?

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm... this is interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which, of course, is why I'm posting it. I've been debating on the right play for a day now!

[ QUOTE ]
What was the buy-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, this was a Party $50+5

[ QUOTE ]
Were both his previous raises min-raises too? Were you worried he was setting you up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, both of his previous raises were of the mini variety. I had no clue what he was up to since he had done the same thing a couple of times before.

[sofere]

Yeah I guess that was a bad idea. I rarely do the stop and go and never suggest it...guess it was a bad place to start.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a good spot for the ol' stop n go, any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason why you would use a stop and go is because you 1) have a hand that you want to put all of your chips in the middle with; 2) don't have enough chips that a re-raise would push your opponent off the hand; and 3) will be first to act on the flop and can hopefully get him to lay down his hand without seeing the turn and the flop.

In this case, he's first to act on the flop and I have enough chips to re-raise him all-in pre-flop and get him to fold if he doesn't have a real hand.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling this will be a devisive one because the two short stacks are so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it won't. CC'ing is better than folding which is much much much better than pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would call and hope for what type of flop? You can't play for set value because you don't have implied odds. The pair isn't big enough to hope for an overpair. And he's probably going to fire out on the flop with any two cards so it's tough to say whether or not your ahead or behind based solely on his action.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
So you would call and hope for what type of flop? You can't play for set value because you don't have implied odds. The pair isn't big enough to hope for an overpair. And he's probably going to fire out on the flop with any two cards so it's tough to say whether or not your ahead or behind based solely on his action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I flop an overpair about 7% and a set about 13% (and there's the occasional 568 or similar flop which counts about the same.) That's around 20%, and if I'm playing for that alone I need 5:1 or an extra 400 chips postflop. If I play for a 'reasonable' flop (932 rainbow) it's more like 30%. I get either of those odds pretty much every time.

More importantly, pushing and reraising both suck due to stack sizes. If the fourth guy had 1500 I'd like pushing much better.

[e_fermat]

I think it's close between Push/Fold leaning towards fold. Even if he is very aggressive and pushing top 67% hands (all pairs, A,K,Q,J, Ten suited, T6-T9, 97-98, 95s-96s, 87, 76s), you are only a 60/40 favorite to win if called..I don't think the fold equity here compensates for the risk of losing if called. Slightly worse case if he's pushing a top 40% hand.

If you fold, you will have 1720 left and the in-the-money situation should likely be decided in the next orbit. One factor, however, is when do the blinds go to 200/400? If blinds rise in &lt;3 hands I change my answer to push because you will have basically zero stealing opportunities the next orbit unless both get small stacks get knocked out in one hand. If &gt;5 hands, I fold.

[ChrisV]

Call looks good. Fold is fine. Pushing is terrible.

The guy has done the same thing twice before and you've reraised him, what do you reckon he's up to this time?