Live 1/2 NL Hand

[StoneRose]

$1/2 NL. $450 in front of me. Average stack at the table is about $200. I have k /images/graemlins/diamond.gif k /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the hole UTG. I bet $13. I am dismayed to see 4 callers, including the big blind. Flop is J /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

The Big Blind, a tight, solid player, bets $50 into me. He has $90 left in front of him after the bet. This bet is a very unusual size for the table. The typical post flop bet is $15-25. There is one tight-passive player with about $200 and a loose aggressive player with about $300 left to act after me.

If UTG is not bluffing -- all his chips are going in at one point in this hand -- and the two players behind me may have me beat or have monster draws. Any thoughts?

[Wayfare]

Your read seems to indicate that he is strong, maybe a set. If that is the case then fold. He is not messing around betting the pot into a large field. The most likely hand that a strong player would do this with is a set if he suspected that your UTG raise meant you had an overpair to this board.

However, against most opponents in this situation I make it $150 here and put him all in. LAG knows you have a hand and won't lay down for an all-in, loose-passive will roll over as well. You can also call and hope the other two go out, it is really table dependent. The BB will get all in by the end if you call no matter what, so if you call his flop bet the money is almost certainly going in.

This is one of the tougher hands I have seen posted in a while. Laying down wouldn't be very much -EV if at all.

[amoeba]

damn, thats a tough one.

[amoeba]

I agree with your analysis Wayfare. I put villain on JT though.

[Autocratic]

It's hard to pin him on anything you can beat. It's tough, but I say lay it down.

[Tilt]

Call that if you hate money IMO.

Sometime the villain here has AJ. But not often enough to push him in with two to act still. Heads up its a debate, but here its a clear fold I think.

[StoneRose]

I wound up just calling the $50 bet. This, as I see it now, was the absolute worst of my 3 choices from a theoretical perspective. The last thing I wanted were callers behind me, and I was already probably behind. I screwed up. But Note: It may seem weird, but I was kind of hoping that my call would be raised by the aggro player who would try to semibluff in this spot with some sort of draw. I would then be able to see how the original better reacted.

No luck. The two remaining players folded. The turn was the 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif for a board of j /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Big blind went all in for $90 The pot had about $160. Do I have to fold now?

[tdomeski]

If he has it, fold.

If not, make it $150 and call the $200 guy if he pushes and fold if the $300 dude pushes.

Make your read and go for it.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has it, fold.

If not, make it $150 and call the $200 guy if he pushes and fold if the $300 dude pushes.

Make your read and go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tdom is right. This is a raise/fold spot.

Folding isn't bad, as Wayfare noted. Duly noted, I should say. (Always wanted to say that)

Thing is, lets say you dont think BB "Has it," so you raise. Then a player wakes up behind you.

UH - OH!!!

This definately comes down to reads...

[BobboFitos]

Oh, on the turn, once you call the 50, call his all in. You called the 50 because you dont put him on a set. (Because you calling to catch a 2 outer is bad poker)

Unless you change your read, I guess.

I call and hope he has like KQc, (do you have Kc?) or maybe AJ, or maybe....