KQs 3-bet and capped behind me

[steveyz]

CO is aggressive but hasn't gotten out of line. No read on button but I don't think he's gotten out of line either.

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Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (17.66 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero???

What's my plan here?

[amulet]

calling the 2 bets back to you when it has been 4 bet out of position is probably incorrect. you are most likely dominated, and need to hit a flush or 2 pair to feel good, assuming the players who raiaed and reraised are solid. you are 28 to 1 to flop 2 pair, and you make the 2nd nut flush less then 6% by the river. even with the pot odds i fold because of the threat of domination, again assuming the raisers are solid.

now for the flop, i do not feel good about the hand, but you have top pair, and and no one would fault you for beting once you have choosen to call the 2 bets back to you. if you choose to check and call you have no idea where you are. let's take a good example for you, the 3 bettor has JJ, and the 4 bettor AKS. but the odds are the 4 bettor has AA, or KK, maybe QQ. if he is loose your lucky he has AK. of the raising hands the 3 and 4 bettor's can have AA, KK, QQ, kill your hand. AQS which is a loose 3 bet vs one or two players also beats you. AK you are ahead, JJ you are ahead, TT (which many online 3 bet with) beats you. therefore, with a a 3 bettor and 4 bettor, you are probably in trouble. you can get out now, or bet out and see. i doubt you are best, and i think if you do the math on the possible hands they hold (if they are soild players) your beat. so calling the 2 bets back to you preflop was a mistake. now if they are loose monkey's then bet out, you have top pair and they can have anything. if you have been watching them, and have pokertracker, you have the best idea. vs tough solid players i think your in trouble.

[gamblore99]

hey steve, I think the preflop call is fine, your straight and flush potential getting more than 7:1 is worth it, and if you do hit, you'll probably rack up a ton of bets postflop. As for the flop, I think i'd probably throw out a bet, and fold it it came back Raised and Reraised to me. Pretending it only comes back one raise to me, I would be inclined to call that down without improvement if it was CO, but if it was the Button who Raised I think I would fold the river without improvement.

[Levi King]

[ QUOTE ]
but if it was the Button who Raised I think I would fold the river without improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't sound right to me. If you're going to fold your top pair, then the time to do it is the flop. Absent that, doesn't the Miller book say that folding for one bet on the river in a big pot is almost always a mistake? If you paid to see the flop and turn, unless a scare card shows up on the river (A, K, maybe a club), I think you've got to pay the guy off for 1BB.

FWIW, I would fold when the cap got to me, but on the PP 15, minus a read, if I somehow saw the flop I'd bet out and call down the inevitable raise (and feel bad about it the whole way).

[CardSharpCook]

I like the call PF, I just wish there were more players in it. But you have 6.5BBs in the pot (assuming 3bettor calls) So call for one more BB and hope for a a hand with possibilities (str8/flush). I don't have to tell you this, but you can't feel good about the flop. The only real question is who's beating you and how badly. I don't bet it out, and fold when it gets bet to me.

Here's why: If you lead out, you will be called, if not raised. You are out of position. If AA,AQ,QQ,TT,KK is out there, there is no reason for them to raise the flop. That player is happy to have you in the pot, happy to have two players to call with inferior hands with very few outs. You are doing all the work allowing them to maintain a low profile and maximize their profits without scaring out any contributors. If I had AA against you here, I would call you down to the river with a grin on my face and then raise you there knowing that I have caused you to contribute the most you ever would with TPkingK. Best of all, by never raising, AK, to the right of me, called you down as well.

I see no fold equity generated by betting here. You called hoping for a str8 or a flush and you missed. That you happened to catch top pair means very little, IMHO. You are in for $60 right now, if you bet, you're committed for $75 or $105 more. Cut your loses.

CSC

[steveyz]

I think the pf call is definitely marginal, but I think it may be marginally correct. I routinely fold AQo there.

As for postflop. I think if I check and it's only 1-bet back to me, I'd have to call hoping to spike a K or Q on the turn. I probably don't have 5 outs, but I think I should have at least 2 or 3 unless QQ/KK is out there.

[CardSharpCook]

Ok, I'll grant you five outs. 5 outs and about 16 SBs? OK, I'll agree that calling a single bet is in order. Hope that AJ/AQ, KK, QQ isn't out there, but know that AK, AA will pay you off. Also, you can backdoor a str8 if a J falls. Ok, I like calling a single bet on the flop, thank you for pointing that out.

CSC

[gamblore99]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't sound right to me. If you're going to fold your top pair, then the time to do it is the flop. Absent that, doesn't the Miller book say that folding for one bet on the river in a big pot is almost always a mistake? If you paid to see the flop and turn, unless a scare card shows up on the river (A, K, maybe a club), I think you've got to pay the guy off for 1BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your right Levi, considering that your raised from Mp, he could be capping with AK, and most players would probably raise this on the flop and some might continue to bet this down the whole way.

[ QUOTE ]
Here's why: If you lead out, you will be called, if not raised. You are out of position. If AA,AQ,QQ,TT,KK is out there, there is no reason for them to raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely expect it to get raised. I want to push people out to increase my chance of taking down the big juicy pot. I do that by representing a strong hand, and facing them with bets. The CO may have something like TT or AK, and If I can get him to fold, then I increase my chances of winning the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
That player is happy to have you in the pot, happy to have two players to call with inferior hands with very few outs. You are doing all the work allowing them to maintain a low profile and maximize their profits without scaring out any contributors. If I had AA against you here, I would call you down to the river with a grin on my face and then raise you there knowing that I have caused you to contribute the most you ever would with TPkingK. Best of all, by never raising, AK, to the right of me, called you down as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is horrible thinking. The pot is massive. AA is a favorite, but not a definite winner. In a pot this big, you should be jamming bets into it. You will get plenty of action (we all agree on calling down). If a guy is betting into you with callers, you are missing out on a lot of possible bets.

[ QUOTE ]
I see no fold equity generated by betting here. You called hoping for a str8 or a flush and you missed. That you happened to catch top pair means very little, IMHO. You are in for $60 right now, if you bet, you're committed for $75 or $105 more. Cut your loses.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is very little fold equity, but there is a chance you can fold out something like JJ or TT, and maybe even something like AK, which would be worth it. It doesn’t matter that you are in for 60, it just matters how big that pot is.

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]
I do that by representing a strong hand, and facing them with bets. The CO may have something like TT or AK, and If I can get him to fold, then I increase my chances of winning the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I'm reading wrong at this time of the whee hours, the CO would have a set with TT and I don't think he'd fold. I would expect him to call a single bet to hit a J for his AK straight, too. Even if the button 3-bet preflop with 99, he still has a gutshot on the flop to call, although who knows if he'd notice AK would beat him if he hits. JJ has a gutshot, too.

It looks like it'd be hard to push anyone off a hand on the flop. Might get lucky and have the CO raise you if you bet and hope the BB folds, but that seems like a lot of hoping. I don't think anyone is folding before seeing the turn card.

edit: Yep, it's late. I didn't even notice the button in there. I thought the bb capped. Still don't think anyone/most would fold, though.

[Vince Lepore]

Pray! You probably have the best hand but how would you ever know? You are in a horrible situation. You have no choice but to bet and hold your breath.

Vince