Yet another AKs post...

[mmahlin]

1-2 NL on Stars. I've been at the table for almost three hours and the table has just recently turned over with six new players posting $200 within the last two orbits, so no real reads and no one that I have any notes on. I've been running pretty ragged for the last hour and am about ready to give it up for the night when the following hand comes up:

With a $230 stack, UTG, I pick up A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I raise it to $6 and get a call from a middle position player
($200 stack) and the BB ($260 stack). The flop comes out:

8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

The BB bets $15. What's your play?

[Yeti]

Raise to $60-65.

[amoeba]

man, that is a tough one.

Guy is either on a set or on a straight. You would obviously prefer the straight. I really doubt he is doing this with AT.

Given that you are slight dog to straight or 2 pair and big dog to set.

I think I fold.

[amoeba]

I disagree very much with this move. you can't call a rereraise and you cant call the turn if it blanks and he leads out again.

[Tilt]

Amoeba has a good case. You could fold here.

I might just call though. Let him sweat the turn with a draw or weak pair. If he has read you as AK and then he bets into you like this it might mean he has trips or the straight, but it might mean he has JJ/QQ or an OESD + flush draw. I think a flat call will test his will just as much as a raise.

If you get an A or K on the turn, dont get excited though. Keep the pot small, check behind or fold to a large bet. Call another bet on the turn if a blank falls only if pot odds warrant it.

[parttimepro]

I think you're giving BB too much credit. It's entirely possible he sees this junk flop, knows Hero will have overcards 2/3rds of the time, and wants to take it down here. This could be a semi-bluff with an OESD, smaller flush draw, or overcards.

I'm not sure it's the best play, but I think a lot of players would get tricky with a set or straight and let the pf raiser either bet his overpair or bluff his overcards.

Another possibility is two pair or JT, which would usually get played pretty fast in this situation.

So most likely, you're behind at this point. I don't like raising, that will only push out hands you dominate like AQ or KQ, and will give other hands a chance to reraise you. But you have position, and will likely get paid off if you hit your flush. I call the flop here. If the turn is a blank, BB will likely reveal his strength. He'll put you on an overpair, and will probably check with a single pair. A set will value bet or check hoping to induce a bluff. 2 pair might make a big bet. I probably call a small to middle bet on the turn, or else take the free card.

If you pair your A or K on the turn, I'd probably call down small bets, but there's a good chance you're still behind 9T, AT, 99, JQ, etc.

[amoeba]

If hero has overcards, he hits the flop 1/3 of the time but that does not mean he has overcards 2/3 of the time.

I think the call is ok. It is possible that he is trying to push you off AK. and like you said, he might make the mistake of checking the turn.

if he bets the turn, I will definitely fold.

But the problem comes when you hit your A or K on the turn and he bets the turn.

It just feels like I am calling a flop bet inorder to hit my flush on the turn as I won't be comfortable going to showdown with just a naked TPTK.

[Yeti]

Disagree with raising if you want, although I like my hand right here and you are giving BB way too much credit I think. Plus, at this level there are very few people who will bet out again when raised on the flop.

Anyway, you must at least call, imo. Folding seems pretty damn bad.

[amoeba]

folding might be too weak I agree, but I definitely don't like the raise.

yes, they might not bet out again but does it matter? you've already put your money in for them. calling the flop and calling the turn will probably cost you less and you get to see 2 more streets.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
Disagree with raising if you want, although I like my hand right here and you are giving BB way too much credit I think. Plus, at this level there are very few people who will bet out again when raised on the flop.

Anyway, you must at least call, imo. Folding seems pretty damn bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats overstating things a bit. Yes, usually a four flush AK is very strong. But on this board at these stakes against an opponent you read as tight your overcards are probably no good to draw on. If he has trips you are a big dog. And raising here if he has a strong hand isnt going to buy you a check to the river. Folding is definitely an option if you are relatively sure you are up against trips or a straight. I prefer calling because those hands are exactly who I want to be up against if I hit a flush and the board doesnt pair.

[Yeti]

Hmm, lots of debate on this one I see /images/graemlins/smile.gif I've never really played on PS, not in a year or so. I feel I should mention that, as a lot of my mindset is Party play.

'on this board at these stakes against an opponent you read as tight.

- the board has given me a draw to the nuts. the stakes aren't high. where did he say tight?

Maybe PS is different, but imo you are both massively overestimating the power of BB's hand. I see stupid bets out like this all the time with junk which they immediately toss to a raise.

Whilst it is the way a good player would play a big hand, it could also easily mean a lone jack, lower spade draw, JT, middle pair, etc etc. All of which you're in pretty good/excellent shape against. You're even a coinflip against JJ/QQ which are more possible holdings. Plus when you throw out a big raise like this your opponents become worried about the possibility of AA/KK.

If I seeing the river for free (even with a big hand, I find very few opponents who call a raise and bet out on the turn), plus I may well have the best hand already.

All in all this is a definite raise for me. Folding is very weak.

[amoeba]

the whole point is. if you put them on junk, then you don't want them to fold right?

the purpose of your raise is either to build the pot when you have the best hand or to push them off a better hand.

because these stakes are so low, I don't think JJ QQ will fold to your raise. and you are coin flip against those. set or straight definitely won't fold to your raise, so you really can't push off a better hand with the raise.

and you can't really get a worse hand to call either.They won't call your hand with junk. maybe lower flush draw but that is too rare.

Therefore, these are the reasons why I don't like the raise.

[Yeti]

That's a good post, I can't really say anything in response to that to prove my point.

Although, I think you will get called by lone jacks and stuff (well, you would on party). And they will lay down stuff like middle pairs.

Not much I can say /images/graemlins/smile.gif I just think raising works out better at this level but your post is solid upon first inspection.

Revision time! I will return later.