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View Full Version : Expectations during various stages of SNG


ozzy
01-19-2005, 12:47 PM
I'd like some help in analyzing this situation. I think that I'm a fairly typical winning SNG player. I play tight/conservative early on and become more and more aggressive as the field decreases and the blinds increase. I have a healthy ROI and am consistently profitable. However, I'm a little uncomfortable with how high my frequency of finishes in the 4-6ish position is.

Many of my tournaments take on the same type of pattern. My conservative play early gets me into the final 6, but generally in the bottom half in chips of the remaining players. I haven't lost any big pots, nor won any, and may just have lost some blinds and a limp or two. I still manage to get ITM about 1/2 the time that I make the final 6, but it's not much better than that. So, my question is am I doing something wrong? I'm considering 3 lines of thinking and some feedback on these lines would be appreciated.

A. I'm not playing properly early on. If I played more correctly when there were 10-7 players remaining, I wouldn't find myself in the position of being in the bottom half of the final 6 so often.

B. I'm not playing correctly on the bubble/6 or fewer remaining. It's normal for a winning player to be consistently in the bottom half with 6 remaining, but with proper play I should be able to finish ITM far more than 50% of these occasions that I make the final 6.

C. These are typical results for a winning SNG player. Even though I'm in the bottom half with 6 remaining, it's typical to still finish ITM from here about 1/2 the time if playing correctly, and the high frequency which I make it this far ensures that I'll be a winner over the long term. There also will be enough times where I'll be in the top half with 6 remaining due to some well-played good cards early on that offset some of this. In thinking about how I play, this seems logical, but I'd like reassurance that I'm not making a basic mistake in my approach.

Also, it would be helpful to know from winning players what their chip expectation/chip position is at the various blind levels and field sizes.

I'm not focused on specifically "6 players remaining." It's just an easy benchmark to use as an example for discussion. I know that specific approaches depend on the read of the opponents, entry fee, etc. But, I'm just looking for a general rhythm that these SNG's should have for me. I'm hopeful that those of you who've played 1000s of these can help a new poster like me learn from the patterns that I'm sure you've noticed over time in winning SNG play.

daveymck
01-19-2005, 01:24 PM
I havent played 1,000's but I would say C, you are going into the bubble stage at a disadvantage but with a combination of agression and the right cards can build from there to get into the money.

The downside of playing like this is that you are always one hand away from being out and at times you have to take chances.

But on Party lower buyins its the way to go and as long as your ROI keeps up I would not over analize the 4-6 finishes too much as they are inevitable with the tight early style.

Generally I will be going into level 4 on Party with between 500-1200 chips sometime do get up to 2000 or even 3000 but the 500-1200 would be my norm. From there I start getting busy and look to steal blinds etc etc.

ozzy
01-19-2005, 06:58 PM
bump...anybody else? agree? Is this a stupid question?