Would a raise get called here? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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DJMaytag

01-19-2005, 02:31 AM

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($9.05)
UTG+2 ($9.75)
MP1 ($10.75)
MP2 ($59.25)
MP3 ($14.65)
Hero ($56.25)
Button ($23)
SB ($32.15)
BB ($23.15)
UTG ($78.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $0.75, MP1 folds.

I'd been playing really tight, raising with only premium hands for most of the session, and getting no action for the past 100 hands, as i was probably the most feared player at the table after taking about 4 or 5 player's stacks, so i figured what the hell, why not raise here... i might just take down the pot uncontested preflop.

Flop: ($2.10) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1.

I make a little probe bet to see what happens, as i was fairly sure i could take down the pot once again. I wasn't sure what villain had there with the call, maybe JJ or TT. He possibly had KK or AA, but i think he was fearing that I had those overpairs.

Turn: ($4.10) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $8.5, Hero calls $6.50.

So i again make a slightly bigger probe bet to see what happens, as my OESD improved to a flush draw, albeit a bit of a weak one. The reraise confused me a bit, but i thought that villain was afraid of the flush draw hitting, and he wanted me out of the pot now. If he was going to bet big again on the river, it seemed like calling was in order with as many outs as i had to a big hand.

River: ($21.10) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $21.1, Hero calls $21.10.

So I'm so geeked that the str8 hits here that i called without hesitation, but i was a bit apprehensive for a half second that he might beat me somehow... i didn't really think long enough to realize that i had the absolute nuts here (on more than a few occasions i've been so geeked to hit the nut flush/str8 that i didn't realize a better hand could be out there...).

Final Pot: $63.30

So is it possible that a minraise (another $21) could have gotten a call? I was kicking myself for a while afterwards for not raising, but the more i thought about it, the more i thought that he wouldn't have called IF HE THOUGHT ABOUT IT (more on this after some discussion).

Caruso329

01-19-2005, 02:37 AM

Why even worry if a raise would get called... if you have the absolute nuts in position, there should be no question to whether or not you're going to raise. Either you're going to win the hand because you've got the best hand (which you do), or you're going to win the hand because he folded (which you still win the same amount if you just called). If you don't raise, you don't give him a chance to give you more money. There is no risk in raising here.

jimdmcevoy

01-19-2005, 02:41 AM

I'd probably check the turn unless you plan to follow through and bluff the river if he just calls.

But anyway I'd raise all in on the river, it's only a few bucks more, but I think it would look more like a steal to him than min-raising.

I don't know the odds of him calling, but I don't need to, raising on the end obviously can only increase your EV with 0 risk.

TheWorstPlayer

01-19-2005, 02:53 AM

#1: Obviously you have to raise when you are closing the action on the river with the nuts.
#2: That is one heck of a weak flop bet. You are supposed to make it look like you have AA. Is that how you bet AA?
#3: After you take a stab on the flop and he calls, he offers you a free river and your draw has improved. I would really take the free card. I see people make your play a lot on this board, by good players, so maybe I am missing something, but when I have position and I have a good draw, and the opponent offers me a free card to hit my draw, I take it. Basically, I think that firing the second barrel on the turn does not take down the pot very often. More often I think people get check-raised in that situation. (See the lame challenge threads. I think on Day 1 or 2 there was a hand exactly like this one and he also got check/raised on the turn.) If you don't hit your draw, you are going to have no hand on the river anyways so even if he just calls your turn bet if you don't hit a draw you are either going to have to fold the river or make a pure bluff which I don't like against someone who has already called a bet on the flop and on the turn. And if you hit your draw, you will have a strong hand and most likely will be able to raise the guy's likely river bet. So why give him the chance to price you out on the turn when he has already given you the draw for free? It just doesn't make any sense to me, but maybe someone can explain how firing again on the turn is more +EV than checking through. (Although, if I am going to be convinced to fire again, it is definitely not going to be some wussy half pot bet. That I know for sure.)

MarkL444

01-19-2005, 03:51 AM

next time take an extra 2 seconds to read the board.

DJMaytag

01-19-2005, 04:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
#1: Obviously you have to raise when you are closing the action on the river with the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why I didn't do it... I guess I've been in that situation a few times with hitting the nut flush or filling in a str8 draw on the river, only to find a better hand beats me. I guess I didn't take the time to really think it through to realize that there wasn't any possibility of being beat there.

[ QUOTE ]

#2: That is one heck of a weak flop bet. You are supposed to make it look like you have AA. Is that how you bet AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

The villain in question is a very solid player, so if I did have AA, i would want to test the waters to see if he had a set. If i really did have AA, the card gods would make sure villain had QQ... (BTW, he DID have a set of Q's here)

Against other opponents, i'd probably be betting hard on this flop, as it looks like it could be fairly scary for a wheel draw (how ironic). Other non scary flops I do underbet the flop to try to milk the fish a bit. If i bet it hard, usually the table just folds around (especially after sitting in for a while and showing down some strong hands).

[ QUOTE ]

#3: After you take a stab on the flop and he calls, he offers you a free river and your draw has improved. I would really take the free card. I see people make your play a lot on this board, by good players, so maybe I am missing something, but when I have position and I have a good draw, and the opponent offers me a free card to hit my draw, I take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that I think about it, i like this line with position alot more. Checking would probably seem weak here, making a big bet by the villain a lock on the river. The only thing to consider is that this is UB, and the tendency is to bet the pot, which is likely what villain did on the river. Without the extra $$$ in the pot from the turn, the pot bet on the river would have been much smaller (probably about $8), though a raise (another $8 or so for a minraise) would definitely been in order there, and probably would have been called by the villain (I think).

Would my play have been optimal if the positions were reversed?